Strasbourg v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 5
On target
12 – 1
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.60 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
62.2%
Draw
21.0%
Angers win
16.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.70–0.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.77–1.05 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 4.40 xGAngers 0.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jordan Lefort |
| 25' |
 Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 26' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 26' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 33' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Valentín Barco |
| 42' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 43' |
Strasbourg |
Felix Lemarechal | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 43' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Justin-Noel Kalumba |
| 50' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Felix Lemarechal |
| 53' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin-Noel Kalumba |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.60 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Guela Doué |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Lucas Høgsberg | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 65' |
Strasbourg |
Felix Lemarechal | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 65' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Felix Lemarechal |
| 69' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Prosper Peter |
| 86' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Luís |
| 94' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rafael Luís |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prosper Peter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Yassin Belkhdim MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Himad Abdelli MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emmanuel Biumla DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lilian Raolisoa FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Justin-Noel Kalumba FWL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| Florent Hanin Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sidiki Chérif Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ousmane Camara Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Louis Mouton Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guemissongui Ouattara DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 0.95 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Guela Doué DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Diego Moreira DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 86 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.71 | 0.45 | 2.08 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Martial Godo AMC | 75 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 1.82 |
| Valentín Barco MC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| Felix Lemarechal AMC | 74 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.58 | 1.03 | 1.61 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rafael Luís Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kendry Páez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |