Strasbourg v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.15 – +0.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
62.5%
Draw
18.9%
Brest win
18.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.06–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.93–1.32 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 1.15 xGBrest 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 10' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ben Chilwell |
| 18' |
 Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Samir El Mourabet |
| 29' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 38' |
Strasbourg |
Ben Chilwell | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 45' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kendry Páez |
| 54' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 58' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 63' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 65' |
Strasbourg |
Ismaël Doukouré | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 68' |
Strasbourg |
Ismaël Doukouré | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ben Chilwell |
| 69' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 72' |
Strasbourg |
Andrew Omobamidele | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 77' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mama Baldé |
| 88' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 93' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Strasbourg |
Ismaël Doukouré | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Pathé Mboup AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Julien Le Cardinal Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.71 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.52 |
| Ismaël Doukouré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.80 |
| Guela Doué DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Ben Chilwell DML | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw DMR | 59 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Kendry Páez AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Diego Moreira Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Martial Godo Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuel Emegha Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sebastian Nanasi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |