Strasbourg v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 27 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 25
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 18
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.72
Goals − xG
+0.13 – -1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
35.5%
Draw
24.1%
Lens win
40.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–1.56 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 0.87 xGLens 2.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 11' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 17' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
 Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 26' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 29' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 30' |
Strasbourg |
Ismaël Doukouré | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 33' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 35' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 37' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 37' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 40' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.33 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 40' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 40' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 42' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 43' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 44' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 47' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 48' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Wesley Said |
| 57' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 57' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 58' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 59' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 61' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 61' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 71' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 82' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 89' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Lens |
Amadou Haidara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Allan Saint-Maximin |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nidal Celik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.61 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.04 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.07 | 0.08 | 0.87 |
| Allan Saint-Maximin Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Abdallah Sima Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Amadou Haidara Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Guela Doué DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Valentín Barco DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Diego Moreira AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Martial Godo AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Lucas Høgsberg Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxi Oyedele Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |