Strasbourg v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 17
On target
7 – 7
Shots in box
12 – 12
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.94
Goals − xG
+0.14 – -1.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
30.8%
Draw
25.0%
Lens win
44.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Lens have scored 20 from 21.5 expected and conceded 14 from 13.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLLDLWWW last 10
scored 20
from 21.5 xG
conceded 14
from 13.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–1.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.70 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 1.86 xGLens 2.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Strasbourg |
Giovanni Reyna | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jacobo Ortega |
| 1' |
Strasbourg |
Pape Diop | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 13' |
Strasbourg |
Andrew Omobamidele | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Strasbourg |
Pape Diop | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
 Lens |
Franjo Ivanovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Abdallah Sima |
| 20' |
Lens |
Michal Skóras | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 20' |
Lens |
Michaël Cuisance | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 23' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 25' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 33' |
Strasbourg |
Giovanni Reyna | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 40' |
Strasbourg |
Jacobo Ortega | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Sousa |
| 41' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michal Skóras |
| 45' |
Strasbourg |
Jeyland Mitchell | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 47' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 52' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 55' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gessime Yassine |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Jacobo Ortega | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pape Diop |
| 66' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 73' |
Strasbourg |
Jacobo Ortega | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 82' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 84' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 86' |
Strasbourg |
Pape Diop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Florian Thauvin |
| 88' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 93' |
Lens |
Yacine Titraoui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 94' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mezian Soares |
| 94' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 97' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.46 | 1.60 |
| Abdallah Sima FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.04 | 1.60 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Yacine Titraoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Michal Skóras DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| Souleymane Sagnan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franjo Ivanovic AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Michaël Cuisance MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Maik Nawrocki DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ruben Aguilar Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Thorgan Hazard Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Mezian Soares Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gessime Yassine FWR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.31 | 1.16 |
| Jeyland Mitchell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Sebastian Nanasi FWL | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.62 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Genesis Antwi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Filip Jorgensen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Diogo Sousa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Jacobo Ortega FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.46 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Giovanni Reyna MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Karim Coulibaly Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Mateo del Blanco Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |