Strasbourg v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 December 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.91 – -0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
69.0%
Draw
16.9%
Lorient win
14.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLWWDLLLL last 10
scored 19
from 12.9 xG
conceded 23
from 19.4 xG
Lorient have scored 11 from 12.1 expected and conceded 8 from 9.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDLWDLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 12.1 xG
conceded 8
from 9.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.25–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.90–1.30 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 0.91 xGLorient 0.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 19' |
 Strasbourg |
Ismaël Doukouré | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 22' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yvon Mvogo |
| 28' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 30' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 32' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Samuel Amo-Ameyaw |
| 37' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 38' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 42' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 46' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 58' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Guela Doué |
| 71' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ismaël Doukouré |
| 86' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Mvuka |
| 94' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Guela Doué |
| 96' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kendry Páez |
| 97' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kendry Páez |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Valentín Barco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.56 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Diego Moreira DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.60 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Guela Doué DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.62 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kendry Páez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Martial Godo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Darline Yongwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sambou Soumano FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mohamed Bamba Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Mvuka Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Noah Cadiou Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |