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Strasbourg v Montpellier — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 9 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

Strasbourg
2–0
3.17 – 1.98 xG
Montpellier
Shots
22 – 11
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 7
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-1.48 – -2.03
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.01.92.93.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Emanuel Emegha 46' — goalSebastian Nanasi 68' — goal
Strasbourg 3.48 xGMontpellier 2.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Valentín Barco 6' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Diego Moreira 8' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Habib Diarra 8' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Andy Delort 9' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Habib Diarra 11' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Andy Delort 12' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Tanguy Coulibaly 12' — Shot On Post (0.67 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 15' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Habib Diarra 18' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Tanguy Coulibaly 22' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Theo Sainte Luce 29' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 30' — Blocked Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Téji Savanier 32' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Tanguy Coulibaly 34' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Diego Moreira 36' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Nanasi 39' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 41' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Tanguy Coulibaly 42' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 46' — Goal (0.65 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 46' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Nanasi 46' — Saved Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 51' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Andrey Santos 54' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Emanuel Emegha 56' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Pays 62' — Missed Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 64' — Blocked Shot (0.59 xG, Open Play)Andrey Santos 66' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Nanasi 68' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Felix Lemarechal 70' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Guela Doué 74' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Andrey Santos 81' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Khalil Fayad 82' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Theo Sainte Luce 90' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Strasbourg attacking right Montpellier attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Strasbourg Valentín Barco 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot —
8' Strasbourg Diego Moreira 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
8' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Emanuel Emegha
9' Montpellier Andy Delort 0.09 Open Play — Missed Shot Theo Sainte Luce
11' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Felix Lemarechal
12' Montpellier Andy Delort 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Téji Savanier
12' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.67 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Andy Delort
15' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sebastian Nanasi
18' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Andrey Santos
22' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Téji Savanier
29' Montpellier Theo Sainte Luce 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Téji Savanier
30' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Andrey Santos
32' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
34' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Theo Sainte Luce
36' Strasbourg Diego Moreira 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Felix Lemarechal
39' Strasbourg Sebastian Nanasi 0.10 Open Play — Missed Shot Diego Moreira
41' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sebastian Nanasi
42' Montpellier Tanguy Coulibaly 0.35 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Theo Sainte Luce
46' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.65 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
46' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
46' Strasbourg Sebastian Nanasi 0.48 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Felix Lemarechal
51' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Habib Diarra
54' Strasbourg Andrey Santos 0.01 From Corner — Blocked Shot Sebastian Nanasi
56' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.11 Open Play — Missed Shot Habib Diarra
62' Montpellier Nicolas Pays 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Wahbi Khazri
64' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.59 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
66' Strasbourg Andrey Santos 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Sebastian Nanasi
68' Strasbourg Sebastian Nanasi 0.48 Open Play Left Foot Goal Diego Moreira
70' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sebastian Nanasi
74' Strasbourg Guela Doué 0.01 Set Piece — Missed Shot Habib Diarra
81' Strasbourg Andrey Santos 0.02 From Corner — Blocked Shot Sebastian Nanasi
82' Montpellier Khalil Fayad 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
90' Montpellier Theo Sainte Luce 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Téji Savanier

Players

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Theo Sainte Luce ML 90 0 0 2 3 0.09 0.51 1.18
Téji Savanier AMC 90 0 0 1 4 0.04 0.22 0.57
Khalil Fayad MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.70
Joris Chotard MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.03
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.48
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.51
Bamo Meïté DC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.48
Andy Delort FW 65 0 0 2 1 0.17 0.67 1.19
Tanguy Coulibaly FW 64 0 0 4 0 1.15 0.00 1.30
Becir Omeragic DC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Modibo Sagnan DC 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.48
Yael Mouanga Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Nicolas Pays Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.58 0.00 0.58
Othmane Maamma Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wahbi Khazri Sub 25 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.58 0.58
Jordan Ferri Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Strasbourg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Emanuel Emegha FW 90 1 0 4 1 1.20 0.03 1.22
Felix Lemarechal AMC 90 0 0 5 3 0.84 0.61 1.58
Habib Diarra MC 90 0 0 3 3 0.18 0.21 0.47
Andrey Santos MC 90 0 0 3 2 0.09 0.42 1.32
Djordje Petrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Andrew Omobamidele DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Mamadou Sarr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Ismaël Doukouré DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Sebastian Nanasi AMC 86 1 0 3 6 1.06 0.25 1.44
Diego Moreira DMR 85 0 1 2 2 0.05 0.59 0.80
Valentín Barco DML 77 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.12
Guela Doué Sub 13 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Eduard Sobol Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Guemissongui Ouattara Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sékou Mara Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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