Strasbourg v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.29 – +0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
57.2%
Draw
22.1%
Nice win
20.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Nice are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLWWLW last 10
scored 9
from 12.2 xG
conceded 12
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.83–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.25 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 2.71 xGNice 0.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 7' |
 Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 19' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.64 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Gessime Yassine |
| 24' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | Guela Doué |
| 30' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Strasbourg |
Guela Doué | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 35' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.90 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Samir El Mourabet |
| 39' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 40' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 41' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Guela Doué |
| 49' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Charles Vanhoutte |
| 54' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles Vanhoutte |
| 66' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Martial Godo |
| 68' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 69' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dante |
| 84' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles Vanhoutte |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tom Louchet AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Hichem Boudaoui DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Melvin Bard DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Morgan Sanson DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sofiane Diop AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Isak Jansson AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juma Bah DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Dante Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Charles Vanhoutte Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Ali Abdi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kail Boudache Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.12 | 0.14 | 1.44 |
| Gessime Yassine AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.64 | 1.35 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Guela Doué DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Maxi Oyedele DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Martial Godo AML | 80 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.15 | 0.03 | 1.23 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Ben Chilwell DL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lucas Høgsberg Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Valentín Barco Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Emanuel Emegha Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Anselmino Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Amougou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |