Strasbourg v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-1.20 – -0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
61.4%
Draw
21.3%
Paris FC win
17.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Paris FC have scored 19 from 20.2 expected and conceded 10 from 9.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDWLW last 10
scored 19
from 20.2 xG
conceded 10
from 9.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.89–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–0.96 | 2-0 10% | 60% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 1.20 xGParis FC 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Ikone |
| 6' |
 Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 7' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 11' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Paris FC |
Ciro Immobile | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marshall Munetsi |
| 13' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 15' |
Paris FC |
Rudy Matondo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moses Simon |
| 24' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Strasbourg |
Guela Doué | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 43' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adama Camara |
| 47' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Moses Simon |
| 49' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 56' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 61' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martial Godo |
| 64' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
| 65' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Paris FC |
Diego Coppola | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rudy Matondo |
| 76' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
| 82' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Willem Geubbels |
| 83' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guemissongui Ouattara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Valentín Barco DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Guela Doué DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.28 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Chilwell DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| Gessime Yassine AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Martial Godo AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Sebastian Nanasi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Datro Fofana Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Munetsi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rudy Matondo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Adama Camara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ciro Immobile FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Moses Simon FWL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| Jonathan Ikone FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Luca Koleosho Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Willem Geubbels Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Mathieu Cafaro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |