Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 13
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.97 – +0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
29.4%
Draw
20.7%
Paris Saint Germain win
49.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDDLWWWW last 10
scored 18
from 21.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.27–1.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–2.12 | 1-2 9% | 67% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 1.97 xGParis Saint Germain 1.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Mbaye |
| 13' |
 Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Guela Doué |
| 15' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 15' |
Paris Saint Germain |
William Pacho | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 16' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 19' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 21' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bradley Barcola |
| 26' |
Strasbourg |
Guela Doué | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ben Chilwell |
| 32' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Neves |
| 40' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ben Chilwell |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 51' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 55' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 56' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 63' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Goal | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 83' |
Strasbourg |
Guela Doué | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 89' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 92' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuno Mendes DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.62 |
| João Neves MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.53 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| Senny Mayulu FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.09 | 0.45 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye FWR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Désiré Doué Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lee Kang-In Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.11 | 0.50 |
| Martial Godo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Guela Doué DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Diego Moreira AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Chilwell DL | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| Rafael Luís Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gessime Yassine Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |