Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Strasbourg

1–3

1.31 – 2.36 xG

Paris Saint Germain

Shots

16 – 18

On target

8 – 7

Shots in box

13 – 14

xG per shot

0.08 – 0.13

Set-piece xG

0.28 – 1.39

Goals − xG

-0.32 – +0.64

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 17 Oct, 10:59 · 4h before kick-off

Strasbourg win

22.2%

model 23.0%

Draw

22.1%

model 20.1%

Paris Saint Germain win

55.6%

model 56.9%

222256

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.3%
1-1 8.3%
1-3 6.9%
0-2 6.8%
2-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	69.7%	Under 2.5	30.3%
BTTS yes	66.6%	BTTS no	33.4%
Strasbourg 1+	74.6%	Strasbourg 2+	39.8%
Paris Saint Germain 1+	89.2%	Paris Saint Germain 2+	65.3%

Expected goals 1.37 – 2.23. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 31%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 88%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1841 Elo against 1604.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Paris Saint Germain average 1.92 xG a match.

Risk factors

Strasbourg have scored 2.20 a match from 1.30 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paris Saint Germain have an estimated 55.6% win probability, against 22.2% for Strasbourg and 22.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Strasbourg and 2.23 for Paris Saint Germain.

Why Strasbourg

At home Strasbourg average 1.20 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Paris Saint Germain were missing 2.37 expected goal involvements a match against 1.45.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Paris Saint Germain can win

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1841 Elo against 1604. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Away from home Paris Saint Germain average 1.92 xG a match.

Key players

Strasbourg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Julio Enciso (0.42), Martial Godo (0.31), Sebastian Nanasi (0.29). Paris Saint Germain's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ousmane Dembélé (0.50), Bradley Barcola (0.46), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (0.45).

Availability

2 of Strasbourg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 82% of Strasbourg's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of Paris Saint Germain's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Paris Saint Germain's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Strasbourg: 51% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Paris Saint Germain: 67% possession, 25.2 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.69 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-17 14:51 · team_stats 2026-10-17 06:03 · availability 2026-10-17 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Paris Saint Germain are the model's most likely outcome at 55.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.3%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DWWLWWDLLL last 10 scored 20 from 13.9 xG conceded 21 from 18.4 xG

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDDLWWWW last 10 scored 18 from 21.4 xG conceded 11 from 15.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	232057	1.37–2.23	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	252055	1.43–2.20	1-2 9%	70%	68%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	252055	1.43–2.20	1-2 9%	70%	68%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win	53.1%	51.5%	31.0%	1.66×	1.94
Strasbourg to win	24.7%	24.5%	46.4%	0.53×	4.09
Draw	22.2%	24.4%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & both teams score	28.5%	25.2%	15.4%	1.63×	3.97
Paris Saint Germain & not both score	24.6%	21.8%	15.7%	1.39×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Strasbourg & both teams score	14.2%	13.3%	22.8%	0.58×	7.53
Strasbourg & not both score	10.5%	13.3%	23.8%	0.56×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	6.4%	0.76×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & over 1.5	45.0%	40.3%	24.9%	1.62×	2.48
Paris Saint Germain & over 2.5	37.2%	34.9%	19.3%	1.80×	2.87
Paris Saint Germain & under 3.5	30.6%	30.7%	20.4%	1.51×	3.25
Paris Saint Germain & over 3.5	22.5%	21.6%	10.8%	2.01×	4.63
Strasbourg & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	36.4%	0.49×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Strasbourg & over 2.5	16.1%	18.0%	28.9%	0.62×	5.56
Strasbourg & under 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	29.6%	0.61×	5.56
Paris Saint Germain & under 2.5	15.9%	18.0%	11.8%	1.52×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.3%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Strasbourg & under 2.5	8.5%	7.9%	17.7%	0.45×	12.62
Strasbourg & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	16.9%	0.47×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	6.7%	1.18×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	6.7%	1.18×	12.62
Paris Saint Germain & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	6.3%	1.26×	12.62
Strasbourg & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1UP)	68.6%	70.2%	48.4%	1.45×	1.42
Strasbourg (1UP)	44.5%	38.8%	59.1%	0.66×	2.58

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2UP)	53.1%	55.4%	33.3%	1.66×	1.81
Strasbourg (2UP)	24.7%	23.3%	48.4%	0.48×	4.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win 2nd half	44.3%	42.0%	26.5%	1.59×	2.38
2nd half drawn	31.5%	34.1%	31.6%	1.08×	2.93
Strasbourg to win 2nd half	24.2%	24.2%	42.1%	0.57×	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.4%	70.3%	82.9%	0.85×	1.42
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.2%	70.1%	50.0%	1.40×	1.43
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.8%	29.9%	50.0%	0.60×	3.34
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.6%	29.7%	17.1%	1.74×	3.37

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.1%	82.7%	75.3%	1.10×	1.21
Strasbourg over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	54.3%	62.3%	0.87×	1.84
Strasbourg under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	45.7%	37.7%	1.21×	2.19
Strasbourg over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.9%	17.3%	24.7%	0.70×	5.77

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (+2.5)	96.7%	96.3%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
Paris Saint Germain (+1.5)	89.9%	88.5%	75.2%	1.18×	1.13
Paris Saint Germain (+0.5)	75.3%	78.5%	53.6%	1.46×	1.27
Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)	53.1%	52.5%	31.0%	1.69×	1.91
Strasbourg (+0.5)	46.9%	47.5%	69.0%	0.69×	2.10
Strasbourg (-0.5)	24.7%	21.5%	46.4%	0.46×	4.64
Strasbourg (-1.5)	10.1%	11.5%	24.9%	0.46×	8.67
Strasbourg (-2.5)	3.3%	3.7%	10.0%	0.37×	27.05

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede	71.2%	76.7%	78.0%	0.98×	1.30
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	28.8%	23.3%	22.0%	1.06×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 1st half	60.3%	64.4%	51.9%	1.24×	1.55
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 1st half	39.7%	35.6%	48.1%	0.74×	2.81

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 2nd half	52.2%	53.6%	62.3%	0.86×	1.87
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 2nd half	47.8%	46.4%	37.7%	1.23×	2.16

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 corners	81.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners	69.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Paris Saint Germain under 6.5 corners	69.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Paris Saint Germain under 5.5 corners	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Paris Saint Germain over 4.5 corners	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Paris Saint Germain under 4.5 corners	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Paris Saint Germain over 5.5 corners	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 corners	31.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Paris Saint Germain over 6.5 corners	30.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 corners	18.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals	87.2%	87.8%	93.7%	0.94×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 goals	85.3%	87.8%	69.9%	1.26×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals	69.9%	68.0%	85.2%	0.80×	1.47
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals	57.1%	59.3%	36.4%	1.63×	1.69
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 goals	42.9%	40.7%	63.6%	0.64×	2.46
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals	30.1%	32.0%	14.8%	2.16×	3.13
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 goals	14.7%	12.2%	30.1%	0.41×	8.20
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 goals	12.8%	12.2%	6.3%	1.94×	8.21

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 1st half	80.8%	82.4%	87.7%	0.94×	1.21
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 1st half	55.2%	62.0%	41.6%	1.49×	1.61
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 1st half	44.8%	38.0%	58.4%	0.65×	2.64
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 1st half	19.2%	17.6%	12.3%	1.43×	5.68

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 2nd half	42.7%	43.6%	34.0%	1.28×	2.29
Paris Saint Germain scores equally in both	31.1%	33.4%	41.5%	0.81×	2.99
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 1st half	26.2%	26.8%	24.7%	1.09×	3.73

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg (away no bet)	52.6%	51.7%	67.1%	0.77×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	47.4%	48.3%	32.9%	1.47×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain even goals	51.1%	52.6%	56.3%	0.94×	1.90
Paris Saint Germain odd goals	48.9%	47.4%	43.7%	1.08×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.2%	81.5%	82.8%	0.98×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.8%	18.5%	17.2%	1.08×	5.40

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.1%	67.8%	65.7%	1.03×	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.9%	32.2%	34.3%	0.94×	3.11

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.1%	60.3%	60.4%	1.00×	1.66
Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row	47.7%	46.1%	27.6%	1.67×	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.3%	25.2%	22.2%	1.14×	3.97
Strasbourg to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	19.8%	39.0%	0.51×	5.06
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.7%	8.8%	2.22×	5.08
Strasbourg to score 3+ in a row	6.6%	5.6%	13.9%	0.40×	17.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain corners (+3.5)	94.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Paris Saint Germain corners (+2.5)	90.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Paris Saint Germain corners (+1.5)	84.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Strasbourg corners (+3.5)	65.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Paris Saint Germain corners (-1.5)	55.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Strasbourg corners (+2.5)	55.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Paris Saint Germain corners (-2.5)	44.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Strasbourg corners (+1.5)	44.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Paris Saint Germain corners (-3.5)	34.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Strasbourg corners (-1.5)	15.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Strasbourg corners (-2.5)	9.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Strasbourg corners (-3.5)	5.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.8%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	25.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	19.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.8%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	80.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	64.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	56.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	44.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	35.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	26.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	19.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	14.2%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.1%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.73
1-2	9.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
0-1	8.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.50
0-2	7.8%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
2-1	6.3%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.2%	1.41×	13.50
Any other score	5.4%	7.4%	5.1%	1.46×	13.50
1-0	5.3%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.50
1-3	6.2%	7.4%	3.3%	2.25×	13.50
0-3	5.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.29
1-4	3.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.30
2-0	3.3%	1.7%	7.6%	0.22×	58.30
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.30
2-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.31
3-0	1.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	2.6%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.31
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.73×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.73×	58.32
0-0	4.2%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
0-4	2.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2nd half DNB)	64.7%	62.7%	38.6%	1.62×	1.60
Strasbourg (2nd half DNB)	35.3%	37.3%	61.4%	0.61×	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT (DNB)	65.0%	66.3%	45.6%	1.45×	1.51
Strasbourg leading at HT (DNB)	35.0%	33.7%	54.4%	0.62×	2.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg or Paris Saint Germain (12)	77.8%	75.6%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Paris Saint Germain or draw (X2)	75.3%	75.5%	53.6%	1.41×	1.32
Strasbourg or draw (1X)	46.9%	48.5%	69.0%	0.70×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw at HT	78.7%	79.5%	66.5%	1.20×	1.26
Strasbourg or Paris Saint Germain at HT	60.8%	61.3%	61.5%	1.00×	1.63
Strasbourg or draw at HT	60.5%	61.3%	71.9%	0.85×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)	75.3%	84.0%	61.3%	1.37×	1.19
Strasbourg or draw (1UP)	46.9%	52.8%	73.2%	0.72×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw in 2nd half	75.8%	75.8%	57.9%	1.31×	1.32
Strasbourg or Paris Saint Germain in 2nd half	68.5%	65.9%	68.4%	0.96×	1.52
Strasbourg or draw in 2nd half	55.7%	58.0%	73.5%	0.79×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.3%	58.6%	57.2%	1.03×	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.7%	41.4%	42.8%	0.97×	2.42

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (DNB)	68.3%	67.4%	40.0%	1.68×	1.48
Strasbourg (DNB)	31.7%	32.6%	60.0%	0.54×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score first	58.1%	62.6%	43.3%	1.44×	1.60
Strasbourg to score first	37.7%	32.6%	50.4%	0.65×	3.07
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.4%	0.66×	23.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.7%	56.6%	54.3%	1.04×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.3%	43.4%	45.7%	0.95×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.6%	47.3%	44.6%	1.06×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.7%	33.3%	35.6%	0.94×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	10.2%	1.21×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	10.1%	12.4%	9.9%	1.25×	8.10

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	79.7%	84.6%	0.94×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	20.4%	15.4%	1.32×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.9%	65.5%	69.5%	0.94×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.1%	34.5%	30.5%	1.13×	2.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.7%	54.6%	57.3%	0.95×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	27.4%	27.6%	24.4%	1.13×	3.62
Both score 1st half only	14.2%	10.8%	12.3%	0.88×	9.24
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.8%	6.3%	1.08×	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.1%	81.2%	81.6%	1.00×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.9%	18.8%	18.4%	1.02×	5.33

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.5%	59.5%	59.4%	1.00×	1.68
A half without a goal	38.5%	40.5%	40.6%	1.00×	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.5%	42.1%	43.4%	0.97×	2.38
4-6 goals	34.7%	30.8%	30.8%	1.00×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.6%	20.2%	22.6%	0.89×	4.95
7+ goals	4.2%	1.8%	3.4%	0.54×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+	30.1%	33.8%	14.8%	2.28×	2.96
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 1	28.2%	27.4%	33.7%	0.81×	3.65
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.4%	21.7%	1.26×	3.65
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 0	14.7%	12.9%	30.1%	0.43×	7.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.6%	31.4%	1.13×	2.81
Strasbourg to score exactly 0	28.8%	26.6%	22.0%	1.21×	3.76
Strasbourg to score exactly 2	22.3%	23.3%	24.1%	0.97×	4.29
Strasbourg to score 3+	13.0%	14.3%	22.8%	0.63×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT	39.5%	38.7%	28.1%	1.38×	2.58
Draw at HT	39.2%	38.7%	38.5%	1.01×	2.58
Strasbourg leading at HT	21.3%	20.5%	33.5%	0.61×	4.87

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain -1: 1	46.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Paris Saint Germain -1: 2	30.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Paris Saint Germain -1: X	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:1)	75.3%	73.7%	53.6%	1.38×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	14.6%	13.7%	21.7%	0.63×	7.29
Strasbourg (0:1)	10.1%	13.7%	24.9%	0.55×	7.32

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:2)	89.9%	87.1%	75.2%	1.16×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	6.8%	7.7%	15.0%	0.51×	13.02
Strasbourg (0:2)	3.3%	3.8%	10.0%	0.37×	26.62

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:3)	96.7%	96.6%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	6.0%	0.40×	42.12
Strasbourg (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	42.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	95.8%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	2.8%	0.43×	82.16
Strasbourg (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.5%	0.81×	82.22

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg (1:0)	46.9%	49.1%	69.0%	0.71×	2.04
Paris Saint Germain (1:0)	30.6%	30.0%	16.3%	1.84×	3.34
Draw (1:0)	22.5%	21.7%	14.8%	1.46×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg (2:0)	69.4%	71.0%	83.7%	0.85×	1.41
Draw (2:0)	16.2%	15.7%	9.6%	1.64×	6.37
Paris Saint Germain (2:0)	14.4%	10.3%	6.9%	1.50×	9.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.2%	50.3%	47.9%	1.05×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.3%	26.2%	1.00×	3.81
Halves equal	22.7%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg to concede	85.3%	85.7%	69.9%	1.23×	1.17
Strasbourg clean sheet	14.7%	14.3%	30.1%	0.48×	6.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg to concede in 1st half	55.2%	62.0%	41.6%	1.49×	1.61
Strasbourg clean sheet in 1st half	44.8%	38.0%	58.4%	0.65×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg to concede in 2nd half	67.2%	67.3%	50.0%	1.35×	1.49
Strasbourg clean sheet in 2nd half	32.8%	32.7%	50.0%	0.65×	3.06

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg under 6.5 corners	92.6%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Strasbourg under 5.5 corners	86.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Strasbourg under 4.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Strasbourg under 3.5 corners	62.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Strasbourg over 2.5 corners	55.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Strasbourg under 2.5 corners	44.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.36
Strasbourg over 3.5 corners	37.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Strasbourg over 4.5 corners	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Strasbourg over 5.5 corners	13.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.28
Strasbourg over 6.5 corners	7.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg under 3.5 goals	96.2%	96.4%	91.6%	1.05×	1.04
Strasbourg under 2.5 goals	87.0%	87.3%	77.2%	1.13×	1.15
Strasbourg over 0.5 goals	71.2%	74.2%	78.0%	0.95×	1.35
Strasbourg under 1.5 goals	64.7%	63.6%	53.3%	1.19×	1.57
Strasbourg over 1.5 goals	35.3%	36.4%	46.7%	0.78×	2.75
Strasbourg under 0.5 goals	28.8%	25.8%	22.0%	1.17×	3.88
Strasbourg over 2.5 goals	13.0%	12.7%	22.8%	0.56×	7.85
Strasbourg over 3.5 goals	3.8%	3.6%	8.4%	0.43×	27.45

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg under 1.5 in 1st half	90.8%	94.8%	87.1%	1.09×	1.06
Strasbourg under 0.5 in 1st half	60.3%	64.1%	51.9%	1.23×	1.56
Strasbourg over 0.5 in 1st half	39.7%	35.9%	48.1%	0.75×	2.79
Strasbourg over 1.5 in 1st half	9.2%	5.2%	12.9%	0.40×	19.23

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg scores equally in both	40.6%	41.8%	36.8%	1.13×	2.39
Strasbourg scores more in 2nd half	37.0%	37.8%	40.9%	0.93×	2.65
Strasbourg scores more in 1st half	22.4%	21.0%	22.5%	0.94×	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (home no bet)	70.5%	66.6%	57.7%	1.16×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	29.5%	33.4%	42.3%	0.79×	3.00

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg even goals	54.2%	50.7%	51.9%	0.98×	1.97
Strasbourg odd goals	45.8%	49.3%	48.1%	1.03×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.0%	28.2%	28.7%	0.98×	3.54
HT 0-1	21.7%	24.3%	16.6%	1.46×	4.11
HT 1-0	13.7%	10.9%	21.6%	0.51×	9.17
HT 1-1	11.0%	10.9%	9.3%	1.17×	9.19
HT 0-2	8.7%	7.0%	5.2%	1.33×	14.39
Any other HT score	6.2%	6.9%	4.6%	1.49×	14.43
HT 1-2	4.4%	2.4%	4.3%	0.55×	41.94
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.4%	6.9%	0.35×	42.00
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.04
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	0.7%	3.17×	42.15

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	32.4%	32.2%	18.7%	1.72×	3.10
Draw at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	17.4%	16.8%	10.9%	1.53×	5.97
Strasbourg at HT / Strasbourg at FT	13.2%	12.7%	28.0%	0.45×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.7%	12.9%	0.99×	7.88
Draw at HT / Strasbourg at FT	9.5%	6.0%	15.0%	0.40×	16.60
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.73
Strasbourg at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	4.2%	0.83×	28.66
Strasbourg at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	3.3%	3.5%	1.6%	2.11×	28.72
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Strasbourg at FT	2.0%	3.5%	3.7%	0.93×	28.76

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score last	58.1%	56.2%	40.6%	1.38×	1.78
Strasbourg to score last	37.7%	38.9%	53.1%	0.73×	2.57
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.4%	0.66×	23.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.8%	95.7%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 1 at any time	68.6%	69.6%	48.4%	1.44×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.1%	50.8%	51.6%	0.99×	1.97
Strasbourg to lead by 1 at any time	44.5%	39.2%	59.1%	0.66×	2.55
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 2 at any time	38.3%	34.5%	21.3%	1.62×	2.90
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.4%	19.7%	19.8%	1.00×	5.07
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 3 at any time	17.6%	15.0%	8.1%	1.86×	6.65
Strasbourg to lead by 2 at any time	16.1%	15.0%	30.4%	0.49×	6.66
Strasbourg to lead by 3 at any time	4.8%	1.7%	11.8%	0.14×	59.56

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain most corners	66.9%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Strasbourg most corners	23.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	10.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.94

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	85.3%	1.02×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.7%	74.1%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.5%	72.4%	76.8%	0.94×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	60.6%	1.04×	1.58
1-3 goals	56.9%	59.1%	59.6%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	57.0%	59.1%	51.3%	1.15×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.1%	53.2%	46.4%	1.15×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.5%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	39.2%	37.9%	1.04×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.6%	35.2%	39.1%	0.90×	2.84
4-6 goals	34.7%	35.2%	30.8%	1.14×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.8%	30.3%	25.9%	1.17×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.0%	18.8%	13.6%	1.38×	5.32
7+ goals	4.2%	2.6%	3.4%	0.74×	39.09

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain never behind	51.3%	62.8%	40.9%	1.53×	1.59
Strasbourg never behind	27.2%	29.9%	51.6%	0.58×	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	47.6%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	52.4%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.7%	51.8%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.4%	48.3%	48.2%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.9%	50.2%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.9%	87.6%	91.6%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.4%	82.3%	77.4%	1.06×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	83.1%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.2%	61.8%	54.6%	1.13×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	61.1%	61.8%	65.9%	0.94×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	38.9%	38.2%	34.1%	1.12×	2.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.8%	38.2%	45.4%	0.84×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	16.9%	1.34×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.6%	17.7%	22.6%	0.78×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.1%	12.4%	8.4%	1.48×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	6.4%	0.71×	21.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.5%	97.2%	96.4%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.6%	86.7%	90.8%	0.95×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.6%	76.0%	70.7%	1.07×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.2%	72.4%	79.6%	0.91×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.1%	51.9%	42.9%	1.21×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.9%	48.1%	57.1%	0.84×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.8%	27.6%	20.4%	1.35×	3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.4%	24.1%	29.3%	0.82×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.4%	13.3%	9.2%	1.45×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.5%	2.8%	3.6%	0.77×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.5%	88.9%	87.6%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.0%	71.8%	71.3%	1.01×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.4%	63.2%	66.6%	0.95×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.6%	36.8%	33.4%	1.10×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.0%	28.2%	28.7%	0.98×	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.5%	11.1%	12.4%	0.89×	9.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.3%	83.2%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.6%	77.4%	75.6%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.3%	55.4%	49.6%	1.12×	1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.7%	44.6%	50.4%	0.88×	2.24
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.4%	22.6%	24.4%	0.93×	4.42
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.7%	16.8%	18.3%	0.92×	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg not to score in both halves	79.3%	78.5%	67.7%	1.16×	1.27
Paris Saint Germain not to score in both halves	62.9%	63.7%	78.3%	0.81×	1.57
Paris Saint Germain to score in both halves	37.1%	36.3%	21.7%	1.67×	2.75
Strasbourg to score in both halves	20.7%	21.5%	32.3%	0.67×	4.65

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.7%	60.3%	54.3%	1.11×	1.66
Only Paris Saint Germain scores	24.6%	22.3%	15.7%	1.42×	4.49
Only Strasbourg scores	10.5%	11.0%	23.8%	0.46×	9.09
Neither team scores	4.2%	4.6%	6.4%	0.72×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.7%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.2%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.6%	17.5%	17.4%	1.01×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.4%	12.1%	16.3%	0.74×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.2%	12.1%	8.7%	1.40×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.1%	12.1%	8.4%	1.44×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	4.2%	4.5%	6.4%	0.69×	22.42

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.4%	37.2%	38.0%	0.98×	2.69
No goals in 1st half	27.0%	28.4%	28.7%	0.99×	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.1%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.5%	11.0%	12.4%	0.88×	9.12

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.3%	54.3%	49.6%	1.10×	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	29.0%	29.5%	32.3%	0.91×	3.40
No goals in 2nd half	15.7%	16.6%	18.3%	0.91×	6.03

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg not to win both halves	94.8%	94.2%	83.4%	1.13×	1.06
Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves	82.5%	83.9%	91.0%	0.92×	1.19
Paris Saint Germain to win both halves	17.5%	16.1%	9.0%	1.80×	6.20
Strasbourg to win both halves	5.2%	5.8%	16.6%	0.35×	17.33

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win either half	66.3%	67.8%	45.7%	1.48×	1.48
Strasbourg to win neither half	59.7%	59.1%	41.0%	1.44×	1.69
Strasbourg to win either half	40.3%	40.9%	59.0%	0.69×	2.45
Paris Saint Germain to win neither half	33.7%	32.2%	54.3%	0.59×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Strasbourg not to win to nil	89.5%	88.2%	76.2%	1.16×	1.13
Paris Saint Germain not to win to nil	75.4%	78.1%	84.3%	0.93×	1.28
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil	24.6%	21.9%	15.7%	1.39×	4.57
Strasbourg to win to nil	10.5%	11.8%	23.8%	0.50×	8.44

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain by 1	22.5%	24.1%	14.8%	1.63×	4.15
Draw	22.2%	24.1%	22.8%	1.06×	4.15
Paris Saint Germain by 2	16.2%	17.0%	9.6%	1.78×	5.87
Strasbourg by 1	14.6%	11.8%	21.7%	0.54×	8.51
Paris Saint Germain by 3+	14.4%	11.8%	6.9%	1.71×	8.51
Strasbourg by 2	6.8%	7.2%	15.0%	0.48×	13.90
Strasbourg by 3+	3.3%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.74

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Strasbourg 1.32 xGParis Saint Germain 2.37 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Strasbourg attacking right Paris Saint Germain attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Strasbourg	Dário Essugo	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Conrad Harder
3'	Strasbourg	Fabio Baldé	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Conrad Harder
8'	Paris Saint Germain	Maghnes Akliouche	0.36	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Dro Fernández
10'	Paris Saint Germain	Ferrán Torres	0.10	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Lucas Digne
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Beraldo	0.01	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Lucas Hernández	0.09	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Beraldo
13'	Strasbourg	Gessime Yassine	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Jeyland Mitchell
15'	Strasbourg	Giovanni Reyna	0.07	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Oso
16'	Strasbourg	Giovanni Reyna	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Gessime Yassine
23'	Strasbourg	Oso	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Karim Coulibaly
26'	Paris Saint Germain	Lucas Digne	0.02	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
29'	Paris Saint Germain	Beraldo	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
32'	Strasbourg	Fabio Baldé	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Oso
35'	Paris Saint Germain	Dro Fernández	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
43'	Strasbourg	Pape Diop	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Conrad Harder
46'	Strasbourg	Conrad Harder	0.42	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Genesis Antwi
49'	Strasbourg	Conrad Harder	0.04	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Fabio Baldé
54'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Vitinha
66'	Strasbourg	Conrad Harder	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
66'	Strasbourg	Gessime Yassine	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
67'	Strasbourg	Jeyland Mitchell	0.14	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
67'	Strasbourg	Karim Coulibaly	0.07	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
68'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.05	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Vitinha
71'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.76		Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
75'	Paris Saint Germain	Maghnes Akliouche	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
76'	Paris Saint Germain	Illia Zabarnyi	0.41	From Corner	Right Foot	Goal	Ousmane Dembélé
78'	Paris Saint Germain	Nuno Mendes	0.02	Set Piece	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Vitinha
79'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Illia Zabarnyi
80'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.03	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Achraf Hakimi
84'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
89'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Matvey Safonov
89'	Strasbourg	Karim Coulibaly	0.04	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Dário Essugo
92'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.15	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Ferrán Torres
94'	Strasbourg	Dário Essugo	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Giovanni Reyna

Players

Paris Saint Germain

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Maghnes Akliouche FWR	90	0	0	2	0	0.44	0.00	0.57
Illia Zabarnyi DC	90	1	0	1	1	0.41	0.02	0.12
Ferrán Torres FW	90	0	1	1	1	0.10	0.15	0.32
Lucas Hernández DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.10
Warren Zaïre-Emery DR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.46
Matvey Safonov GK	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.07	0.21
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL	64	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.10	0.58
João Neves MC	64	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dro Fernández MC	55	0	0	1	1	0.08	0.36	0.44
Beraldo MC	55	0	0	2	1	0.03	0.09	0.11
Lucas Digne DL	54	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.10	0.46
Nuno Mendes Sub	36	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.04
Désiré Doué Sub	35	1	0	4	0	0.30	0.00	0.25
Vitinha Sub	35	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.11	0.04
Ousmane Dembélé Sub	26	1	1	4	2	0.88	0.49	0.31
Achraf Hakimi Sub	26	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.00

Strasbourg

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Jeyland Mitchell DC	90	0	0	1	1	0.14	0.08	0.24
Giovanni Reyna AMC	90	1	0	2	1	0.11	0.02	0.69
Karim Coulibaly DC	90	0	0	2	1	0.11	0.05	0.12
Dário Essugo DMC	90	0	0	2	1	0.07	0.04	0.11
Oso DL	90	0	0	1	2	0.05	0.12	0.73
Filip Jorgensen GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Genesis Antwi DR	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.42	0.56
Conrad Harder FW	84	0	0	3	3	0.54	0.16	0.70
Gessime Yassine AMR	84	0	1	2	1	0.14	0.04	0.64
Pape Diop DMC	76	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.15
Fabio Baldé AML	61	0	0	2	1	0.13	0.04	0.62
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub	29	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.12
Samir El Mourabet Sub	14	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Jacobo Ortega Sub	6	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Yaya Diémé Sub	6	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Strasbourg

Why the draw is live

Why Paris Saint Germain can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Paris Saint Germain

Strasbourg

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