Strasbourg v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 26
On target
0 – 8
Shots in box
4 – 19
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 1.35
Goals − xG
-0.94 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
51.4%
Draw
23.8%
Rennes win
24.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Rennes have scored 20 from 21.3 expected and conceded 22 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLDWWWLWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.3 xG
conceded 22
from 23.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.81–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–1.26 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 0.94 xGRennes 3.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gessime Yassine |
| 4' |
Strasbourg |
Idrissa Sabaly | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Strasbourg |
David Datro Fofana | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 12' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 12' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 17' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 18' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 19' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 24' |
Rennes |
Alidu Seidu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 32' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 33' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 34' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 37' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 45' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 48' |
Rennes |
Sebastian Szymanski | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.97 | From Corner | — | Goal | Esteban Lepaul |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Szymanski |
| 51' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ludovic Blas |
| 53' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Samuel Amo-Ameyaw |
| 68' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 73' |
Rennes |
Sebastian Szymanski | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 77' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djaoui Cissé |
| 77' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amadou Cissé |
| 88' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 89' |
Rennes |
Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 89' |
Rennes |
Yassir Zabiri | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Amadou Cissé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Junior Mwanga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.79 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafael Luís DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Gessime Yassine AMR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Idrissa Sabaly DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Maxi Oyedele DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| David Datro Fofana FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Martial Godo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samir El Mourabet Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tyrese Noubissie Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.52 | 1.06 | 0.45 |
| Quentin Merlin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ludovic Blas MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Sebastian Szymanski MC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| Breel Embolo FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Mousa Al Tamari ML | 69 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 0.86 |
| Alidu Seidu DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Arnaud Nordin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mahamadou Nagida Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djaoui Cissé Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| Glen Kamara Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassir Zabiri Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |