Strasbourg v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 16
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.59 – +0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
58.2%
Draw
23.4%
Toulouse win
18.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.83–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.17 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 0.41 xGToulouse 1.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 14' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 21' |
 Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Ismaël Doukouré |
| 30' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacen Russell-Rowe |
| 32' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 42' |
Toulouse |
Dayann Methalie | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 45' |
Strasbourg |
Mathis Amougou | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rafael Luís |
| 45' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathis Amougou |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Vossah |
| 48' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dayann Methalie |
| 57' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mark McKenzie |
| 63' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 64' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charlie Cresswell |
| 67' |
Strasbourg |
Yaya Diémé | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Amo-Ameyaw |
| 83' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 86' |
Toulouse |
Warren Kamanzi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 88' |
Toulouse |
Ilyas Azizi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emersonn |
| 90' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 94' |
Toulouse |
Mário Sauer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilyas Azizi |
| 97' |
Strasbourg |
Rafael Luís | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Moreira |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Gessime Yassine ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rafael Luís MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maxi Oyedele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Yaya Diémé FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Mathis Amougou MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samir El Mourabet Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Diego Moreira Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emanuel Emegha Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.02 | 0.86 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.48 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.36 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Alexis Vossah MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.45 | 0.72 |
| Santiago Hidalgo AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Emersonn Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.46 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Djibril Sidibe Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Azizi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |