Sudtirol v Hellas Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 December 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
ITA-Serie B
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.9%
- 1-0 10.2%
- 0-0 9.4%
- 2-1 9.1%
- 2-0 8.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | Under 2.5 | 53.5% |
| BTTS yes | 52.0% | BTTS no | 48.0% |
| Sudtirol 1+ | 76.9% | Sudtirol 2+ | 43.0% |
| Hellas Verona 1+ | 65.7% | Hellas Verona 2+ | 29.0% |
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Sudtirol.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Hellas Verona have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Sudtirol have an estimated 44.8% win probability, against 29.1% for the draw and 26.1% for Hellas Verona. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Sudtirol and 1.07 for Hellas Verona.
Why Sudtirol
Nothing in the data singles out Sudtirol.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 29.1%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Hellas Verona can win
Hellas Verona carry the stronger rating, 1463 Elo against 1414.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Sudtirol, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Hellas Verona, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Sudtirol: 47% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Hellas Verona: 55% possession, 16.3 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Sudtirol are the model's most likely outcome at 44.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.47–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.66–0.92 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 50% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.