Sunderland v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.52
Goals − xG
+0.06 – +0.06
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
31.2%
Draw
28.6%
Aston Villa win
40.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.03–1.21 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 45% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 0.94 xGAston Villa 0.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 13' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Rigg |
| 19' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 25' |
 Aston Villa |
Evann Guessand | 0.50 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 37' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 41' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 48' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Nordi Mukiele |
| 60' |
Aston Villa |
Harvey Elliott | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 63' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Trai Hume |
| 63' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.15 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Boubacar Kamara |
| 69' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dan Ballard |
| 74' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 74' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Granit Xhaka |
| 82' |
Aston Villa |
Harvey Elliott | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 86' |
Aston Villa |
Jadon Sancho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrone Mings |
| 86' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrone Mings |
| 92' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGinn DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Evann Guessand AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trai Hume DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Enzo Le Fée FWL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Isidor FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Chemsdine Talbi FWR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Dan Ballard Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Chris Rigg MC | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Reinildo DL | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eliezer Mayenda Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Masuaku Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Neil Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |