Sunderland v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.95 – 0.88
Goals − xG
+0.43 – -0.45
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
32.8%
Draw
28.8%
Brentford win
38.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.18 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 45% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 1.57 xGBrentford 1.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Sunderland |
Reinildo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 41' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 43' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 67' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 72' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 74' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 76' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | Frank Onyeka |
| 81' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 82' |
Brentford |
Rico Henry | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Thiago |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Goal | Granit Xhaka |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.47 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Henderson DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Frank Onyeka Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Rico Henry Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Le Fée FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Trai Hume DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Habib Diarra MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Chemsdine Talbi FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eliezer Mayenda FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Marc Guiu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |