Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.27
Goals − xG
-0.66 – -0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
31.3%
Draw
33.3%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
35.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 0.66 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 11' |
 Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 13' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 15' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dan Ballard |
| 16' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 22' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 22' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Trai Hume |
| 24' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 25' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 37' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Sunderland |
Lutsharel Geertruida | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dan Ballard |
| 44' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 52' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Rigg |
| 65' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 67' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 73' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Sunderland |
Dennis Cirkin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hinshelwood AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.20 | 0.71 |
| Diego Gómez AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.80 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.62 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.65 |
| James Milner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Yankuba Minteh AML | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Maxim De Cuyper Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Chris Rigg MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trai Hume DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Habib Diarra MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Melker Ellborg GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chemsdine Talbi ML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Luke O'Nien Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eliezer Mayenda Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dennis Cirkin Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |