Sunderland v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 2 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 6
On target
5 – 0
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+1.03 – -0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
54.0%
Draw
28.0%
Burnley win
18.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–0.95 | 1-0 12% | 47% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 1.97 xGBurnley 0.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Burnley |
Axel Tuanzebe | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 8' |
 Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 12' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Alderete |
| 16' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 29' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 42' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 56' |
Burnley |
Maxime Estève | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 60' |
Sunderland |
Reinildo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chemsdine Talbi |
| 63' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Habib Diarra |
| 63' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 71' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Reinildo |
| 75' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Reinildo |
| 83' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Trai Hume |
| 93' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lutsharel Geertruida |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pires DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kyle Walker DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jaidon Anthony AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Marcus Edwards AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florentino Luís MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lyle Foster FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Josh Laurent Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Zian Flemming Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.08 | 1.33 |
| Trai Hume DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.54 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| Enzo Le Fée MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Habib Diarra MR | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.13 | 0.69 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Chemsdine Talbi ML | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Romaine Mundle Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Luke O'Nien Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |