Sunderland v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.34 – +0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
30.5%
Draw
31.3%
Chelsea win
38.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.74 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 2.34 xGChelsea 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 5' |
 Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Trai Hume |
| 10' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 14' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Sunderland |
Luke O'Nien | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Trai Hume |
| 18' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luke O'Nien |
| 20' |
Sunderland |
Nilson Angulo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Trai Hume |
| 23' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luke O'Nien |
| 30' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trai Hume |
| 34' |
Sunderland |
Nilson Angulo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 37' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 43' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 49' |
Chelsea |
Malo Gusto | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 49' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 51' |
Sunderland |
Nilson Angulo | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Sunderland |
Luke O'Nien | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pedro Neto |
| 58' |
Sunderland |
Nilson Angulo | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 67' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trai Hume |
| 69' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.11 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 69' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Habib Diarra |
| 72' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 78' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 87' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Trai Hume |
| 92' |
Chelsea |
Josh Acheampong | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Marc Cucurella ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Enzo Fernández MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
| Moisés Caicedo MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.76 |
| Malo Gusto MR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| Pedro Neto FW | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.73 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Jorrel Hato DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Reece James Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Trevoh Chalobah Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Josh Acheampong Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke O'Nien DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.91 |
| Trai Hume AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 1.10 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1.14 |
| Enzo Le Fée AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 1.39 | 1.58 |
| Noah Sadiki DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.84 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.58 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.27 | 0.00 | 1.32 |
| Nilson Angulo AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Habib Diarra Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Chris Rigg Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |