Sunderland v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Sunderland

15:00 UTC

Crystal Palace

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,420h before kick-off

Sunderland win

43.1%

model 41.2%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.0%

Crystal Palace win

29.5%

model 33.8%

432730

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.8%
1-0 8.8%
2-1 8.8%
0-1 7.9%
1-2 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.7%	Under 2.5	46.3%
BTTS yes	57.1%	BTTS no	42.9%
Sunderland 1+	77.6%	Sunderland 2+	44.0%
Crystal Palace 1+	73.6%	Crystal Palace 2+	38.4%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.33. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 2nd half

2nd half away goals O/U · usually 42%

51.7% fair odds 1.94

moderate signal · 919 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sunderland have created 1.59 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.35.
At home Sunderland average 1.61 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Crystal Palace were missing 1.12 expected goal involvements a match against 0.79.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sunderland have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Crystal Palace and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Sunderland and 1.33 for Crystal Palace.

Why Sunderland

Sunderland have created 1.59 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.35. At home Sunderland average 1.61 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Crystal Palace were missing 1.12 expected goal involvements a match against 0.79.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.50 to 1.33. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Crystal Palace can win

Crystal Palace have created 1.37 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.77. Away from home Crystal Palace average 1.63 xG a match.

Key players

Sunderland's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Enzo Le Fée (0.39), Brian Brobbey (0.32), Tymur Tutierov (0.25). Crystal Palace's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.45), Ismaila Sarr (0.39), Yeremi Pino (0.30).

Availability

1 of Sunderland's top three contributors did not start their last match. Sunderland had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Sunderland: Kevin Danso (suspended). 2 of Crystal Palace's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Crystal Palace's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sunderland: 47% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. Crystal Palace: 43% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sunderland are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sunderland are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWWLWDLLLL last 10 scored 11 from 15.9 xG conceded 16 from 17.7 xG

Crystal Palace have scored 12 from 13.7 expected and conceded 24 from 23.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLWLDWL last 10 scored 12 from 13.7 xG conceded 24 from 23.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412534	1.50–1.33	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	463024	1.38–0.92	1-1 14%	40%	46%
dc-xg	382537	1.43–1.41	1-1 12%	54%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to win	38.1%	36.4%	32.3%	1.12×	2.75
Sunderland to win	36.8%	36.4%	43.0%	0.85×	2.75
Draw	25.1%	27.9%	24.8%	1.13×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace & both teams score	19.5%	18.0%	15.3%	1.17×	5.56
Sunderland & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Crystal Palace & not both score	18.7%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.57
Sunderland & not both score	18.0%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.57
Draw & not both score	5.8%	8.3%	5.0%	1.68×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace & over 1.5	29.8%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.84
Sunderland & over 1.5	28.6%	26.1%	36.6%	0.71×	3.84
Crystal Palace & under 3.5	25.7%	26.1%	21.9%	1.19×	3.84
Sunderland & under 3.5	24.9%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Crystal Palace & over 2.5	23.8%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Sunderland & over 2.5	22.9%	21.6%	30.3%	0.71×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.6%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.6%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Sunderland & under 2.5	14.0%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Crystal Palace & under 2.5	14.4%	12.8%	12.6%	1.02×	7.79
Crystal Palace & over 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	10.6%	1.22×	7.79
Sunderland & over 3.5	11.9%	12.8%	16.5%	0.78×	7.79
Sunderland & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.5%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.5%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Crystal Palace & under 1.5	8.4%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	5.0%	1.60×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (1UP)	55.5%	57.9%	51.5%	1.13×	1.73
Sunderland (1UP)	54.4%	52.7%	62.0%	0.85×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (2UP)	38.1%	37.5%	34.5%	1.09×	2.67
Sunderland (2UP)	36.8%	37.4%	44.7%	0.84×	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.3%	36.1%	31.1%	1.16×	2.77
Crystal Palace to win 2nd half	32.2%	34.3%	32.8%	1.05×	2.92
Sunderland to win 2nd half	31.5%	34.3%	36.2%	0.95×	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	84.3%	79.9%	1.06×	1.19
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	52.6%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	47.4%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	15.7%	20.1%	0.78×	6.38

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	82.5%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Sunderland over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	55.1%	58.3%	0.95×	1.81
Sunderland under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	44.9%	41.7%	1.08×	2.23
Sunderland over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.6%	17.5%	24.8%	0.71×	5.71

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (+2.5)	93.7%	92.1%	89.1%	1.03×	1.09
Crystal Palace (+1.5)	83.0%	82.5%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Crystal Palace (+0.5)	63.2%	62.9%	57.0%	1.10×	1.59
Sunderland (+0.5)	61.9%	62.9%	67.7%	0.93×	1.59
Crystal Palace (-0.5)	38.1%	37.1%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
Sunderland (-0.5)	36.8%	37.1%	43.0%	0.86×	2.70
Sunderland (-1.5)	17.0%	17.5%	24.0%	0.73×	5.73
Sunderland (-2.5)	6.3%	7.9%	10.9%	0.72×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede	75.5%	78.7%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
Crystal Palace clean sheet	24.5%	21.3%	21.9%	0.97×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 1st half	52.2%	50.5%	48.8%	1.03×	1.98
Crystal Palace to concede in 1st half	47.8%	49.5%	51.2%	0.97×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede in 2nd half	53.1%	54.9%	58.3%	0.94×	1.82
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 2nd half	46.9%	45.1%	41.7%	1.08×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners	88.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners	80.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Crystal Palace under 4.5 corners	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Crystal Palace over 2.5 corners	66.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Crystal Palace under 3.5 corners	52.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Crystal Palace over 3.5 corners	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Crystal Palace under 2.5 corners	33.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Crystal Palace over 5.5 corners	19.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Crystal Palace over 6.5 corners	11.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 3.5 goals	94.2%	92.4%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Crystal Palace under 2.5 goals	82.5%	81.5%	85.1%	0.96×	1.23
Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals	76.2%	76.2%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals	57.9%	59.4%	60.6%	0.98×	1.68
Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals	42.1%	40.6%	39.4%	1.03×	2.46
Crystal Palace under 0.5 goals	23.8%	23.8%	25.0%	0.95×	4.21
Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals	17.5%	18.5%	14.9%	1.24×	5.39
Crystal Palace over 3.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.2%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 1st half	51.3%	55.4%	59.7%	0.93×	1.81
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 1st half	48.7%	44.6%	40.3%	1.11×	2.24
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 1st half	14.4%	10.8%	10.7%	1.01×	9.27

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace scores equally in both	37.6%	37.3%	37.5%	0.99×	2.68
Crystal Palace scores more in 2nd half	34.2%	33.7%	40.8%	0.83×	2.97
Crystal Palace scores more in 1st half	28.1%	26.3%	21.7%	1.21×	3.80

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (away no bet)	59.5%	57.4%	63.5%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.5%	42.6%	36.5%	1.16×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace even goals	52.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Crystal Palace odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.9%	82.7%	80.0%	1.03×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.1%	17.3%	20.0%	0.86×	5.80

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.9%	68.3%	70.1%	0.97×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.1%	31.7%	29.9%	1.06×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.6%	55.2%	61.6%	0.90×	1.81
Crystal Palace to score 2+ in a row	32.9%	29.2%	29.7%	0.98×	3.42
Sunderland to score 2+ in a row	31.9%	29.2%	39.2%	0.74×	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.4%	19.6%	26.1%	0.75×	5.11
Crystal Palace to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.0%	10.1%	1.19×	8.34
Sunderland to score 3+ in a row	10.1%	12.0%	16.4%	0.73×	8.35

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland corners (+3.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sunderland corners (+2.5)	85.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Crystal Palace corners (+3.5)	77.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Sunderland corners (+1.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Crystal Palace corners (+2.5)	68.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Crystal Palace corners (+1.5)	56.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sunderland corners (-1.5)	43.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sunderland corners (-2.5)	32.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Crystal Palace corners (-1.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Sunderland corners (-3.5)	22.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Crystal Palace corners (-2.5)	14.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Crystal Palace corners (-3.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	55.3%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	17.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.8%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	82.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	55.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	44.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	25.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	17.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.2%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.8%	11.5%	11.4%	1.01×	8.72
0-1	8.4%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
1-2	8.5%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
1-0	8.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
2-1	8.3%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
0-0	5.8%	7.4%	5.0%	1.50×	13.51
0-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
2-0	5.8%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
2-2	5.9%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
0-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (2nd half DNB)	50.5%	52.6%	47.5%	1.11×	1.90
Sunderland (2nd half DNB)	49.5%	47.4%	52.5%	0.90×	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace leading at HT (DNB)	50.9%	54.7%	40.2%	1.36×	1.83
Sunderland leading at HT (DNB)	49.1%	45.3%	59.8%	0.76×	2.21

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland or Crystal Palace (12)	74.9%	72.1%	75.2%	0.96×	1.39
Crystal Palace or draw (X2)	63.2%	63.6%	57.0%	1.12×	1.57
Sunderland or draw (1X)	61.9%	63.6%	67.7%	0.94×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or draw at HT	70.4%	75.0%	63.9%	1.17×	1.33
Sunderland or draw at HT	69.3%	66.7%	75.7%	0.88×	1.50
Sunderland or Crystal Palace at HT	60.3%	61.5%	60.2%	1.02×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or draw (1UP)	63.2%	71.7%	65.3%	1.10×	1.40
Sunderland or draw (1UP)	61.9%	71.6%	74.3%	0.96×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or draw in 2nd half	68.5%	65.7%	63.8%	1.03×	1.52
Sunderland or draw in 2nd half	67.8%	65.7%	67.2%	0.98×	1.52
Sunderland or Crystal Palace in 2nd half	63.7%	63.9%	68.9%	0.93×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.6%	61.4%	57.1%	1.08×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.4%	38.6%	42.9%	0.90×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (DNB)	50.9%	50.9%	42.9%	1.19×	1.97
Sunderland (DNB)	49.1%	49.1%	57.1%	0.86×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score first	47.6%	46.0%	43.3%	1.06×	2.17
Sunderland to score first	46.6%	46.0%	51.8%	0.89×	2.18
No goal scored	5.8%	7.4%	5.0%	1.50×	13.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.6%	55.0%	58.0%	0.95×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.4%	45.0%	42.0%	1.07×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.8%	44.3%	46.7%	0.95×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	34.1%	34.5%	30.2%	1.14×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.3%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.7%	82.6%	82.1%	1.01×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.3%	17.4%	17.9%	0.97×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.5%	73.8%	68.6%	1.08×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.5%	26.2%	31.4%	0.83×	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.9%	55.0%	55.9%	0.98×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	21.9%	21.1%	24.7%	0.85×	4.75
Both score 1st half only	16.6%	15.0%	12.8%	1.17×	6.67
Both score in both halves	6.6%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.7%	81.2%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.3%	18.8%	19.6%	0.96×	5.31

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.3%	57.4%	61.6%	0.93×	1.74
A half without a goal	42.7%	42.6%	38.4%	1.11×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.8%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.2%	26.6%	32.8%	0.81×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.4%	22.9%	18.3%	1.25×	4.37
7+ goals	2.6%	1.8%	2.8%	0.66×	54.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score exactly 1	34.2%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Crystal Palace to score exactly 2	24.5%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Crystal Palace to score exactly 0	23.8%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.48
Crystal Palace to score 3+	17.5%	19.6%	14.9%	1.31×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.6%	29.2%	1.11×	3.07
Sunderland to score exactly 0	24.5%	23.3%	21.9%	1.06×	4.29
Sunderland to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.3%	26.1%	0.89×	4.29
Sunderland to score 3+	16.8%	18.8%	22.9%	0.82×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.7%	38.5%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Crystal Palace leading at HT	30.7%	33.3%	24.3%	1.37×	3.01
Sunderland leading at HT	29.6%	25.0%	36.1%	0.69×	4.00

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace -1: 1	61.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Crystal Palace -1: X	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Crystal Palace -1: 2	17.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:1)	63.2%	61.4%	57.0%	1.08×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61
Sunderland (0:1)	17.0%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:2)	83.0%	82.9%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.8%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.10
Sunderland (0:2)	6.3%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:3)	93.7%	92.7%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	42.00
Sunderland (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.95
Sunderland (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	82.05

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (1:0)	61.9%	65.3%	67.7%	0.97×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	20.2%	21.7%	16.7%	1.29×	4.61
Crystal Palace (1:0)	17.9%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (2:0)	82.1%	84.6%	84.3%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.2%	10.3%	9.2%	1.11×	9.73
Crystal Palace (2:0)	6.7%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.3%	44.8%	49.6%	0.90×	2.23
1st half highest scoring	32.8%	30.4%	25.8%	1.18×	3.29
Halves equal	24.9%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede	76.2%	76.0%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Sunderland clean sheet	23.8%	24.0%	25.0%	0.96×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland clean sheet in 1st half	51.3%	55.4%	59.7%	0.93×	1.81
Sunderland to concede in 1st half	48.7%	44.6%	40.3%	1.11×	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede in 2nd half	53.7%	52.8%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Sunderland clean sheet in 2nd half	46.3%	47.2%	42.2%	1.12×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland over 2.5 corners	78.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sunderland under 6.5 corners	77.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sunderland under 5.5 corners	66.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sunderland over 3.5 corners	63.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sunderland under 4.5 corners	52.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sunderland over 4.5 corners	47.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sunderland under 3.5 corners	36.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Sunderland over 5.5 corners	33.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sunderland over 6.5 corners	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Sunderland under 2.5 corners	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.2%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Sunderland under 2.5 goals	83.2%	82.2%	77.1%	1.07×	1.22
Sunderland over 0.5 goals	75.5%	77.7%	78.1%	1.00×	1.29
Sunderland under 1.5 goals	58.9%	58.6%	51.1%	1.15×	1.71
Sunderland over 1.5 goals	41.1%	41.4%	48.9%	0.85×	2.42
Sunderland under 0.5 goals	24.5%	22.3%	21.9%	1.02×	4.49
Sunderland over 2.5 goals	16.8%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.62
Sunderland over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.8%	8.5%	0.91×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 1.5 in 1st half	86.2%	90.1%	84.4%	1.07×	1.11
Sunderland under 0.5 in 1st half	52.2%	50.3%	48.8%	1.03×	1.99
Sunderland over 0.5 in 1st half	47.8%	49.7%	51.2%	0.97×	2.01
Sunderland over 1.5 in 1st half	13.8%	9.9%	15.6%	0.63×	10.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland scores equally in both	38.1%	37.9%	37.7%	1.01×	2.64
Sunderland scores more in 2nd half	34.2%	33.0%	36.1%	0.92×	3.03
Sunderland scores more in 1st half	27.7%	27.8%	26.3%	1.06×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (home no bet)	60.4%	59.9%	56.6%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	39.6%	40.1%	43.4%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland even goals	53.0%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Sunderland odd goals	47.0%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.8%	28.0%	28.1%	0.99×	3.58
HT 0-1	17.9%	18.6%	14.8%	1.26×	5.38
HT 1-0	17.4%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.38
HT 1-1	11.6%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.08
HT 0-2	6.0%	6.9%	4.4%	1.58×	14.51
Any other HT score	5.8%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.51
HT 2-0	5.7%	6.9%	8.0%	0.86×	14.51
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.03
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.03
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.20

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	23.0%	21.8%	16.7%	1.30×	4.58
Sunderland at HT / Sunderland at FT	22.0%	21.8%	26.4%	0.83×	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.4%	12.7%	13.8%	0.92×	7.90
Draw at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	12.8%	12.6%	12.3%	1.03×	7.91
Draw at HT / Sunderland at FT	12.5%	12.6%	13.9%	0.91×	7.91
Crystal Palace at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	4.8%	1.25×	16.68
Sunderland at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.68
Sunderland at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	2.3%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.68
Crystal Palace at HT / Sunderland at FT	2.3%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score last	47.6%	46.5%	45.1%	1.03×	2.15
Sunderland to score last	46.6%	46.5%	50.1%	0.93×	2.15
No goal scored	5.8%	7.4%	5.0%	1.50×	13.51

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.2%	92.7%	95.1%	0.98×	1.08
Crystal Palace to lead by 1 at any time	55.5%	54.8%	51.5%	1.07×	1.82
Sunderland to lead by 1 at any time	54.4%	50.9%	62.0%	0.82×	1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.7%	44.6%	50.6%	0.88×	2.24
Crystal Palace to lead by 2 at any time	24.5%	19.7%	21.0%	0.94×	5.08
Sunderland to lead by 2 at any time	23.5%	19.7%	29.9%	0.66×	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	14.9%	21.2%	0.70×	6.69
Crystal Palace to lead by 3 at any time	8.7%	6.7%	8.1%	0.83×	14.85
Sunderland to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	6.7%	13.2%	0.51×	14.87

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland most corners	55.2%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Crystal Palace most corners	33.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.4%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.3%	78.7%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.0%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	70.7%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.4%	63.3%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.5%	53.2%	55.8%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.2%	48.5%	51.9%	0.93×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.8%	48.5%	46.3%	1.05×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.1%	43.6%	36.6%	1.19×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.2%	39.2%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.2%	30.2%	32.8%	0.92×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.9%	24.5%	28.9%	0.85×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.3%	14.8%	14.5%	1.02×	6.75
7+ goals	2.6%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace never behind	39.8%	44.2%	38.0%	1.16×	2.27
Sunderland never behind	38.7%	44.1%	48.5%	0.91×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.6%	51.7%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.4%	48.3%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.1%	82.3%	82.8%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.6%	77.3%	81.7%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.2%	66.3%	64.5%	1.03×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	54.1%	52.5%	58.5%	0.90×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	45.9%	47.5%	41.5%	1.14×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.8%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.4%	22.7%	18.3%	1.24×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.9%	17.7%	17.2%	1.03×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	5.0%	1.56×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.3%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.4%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.1%	81.1%	78.9%	1.03×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.8%	72.4%	76.2%	0.95×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.1%	55.8%	53.9%	1.03×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.9%	44.2%	46.1%	0.96×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.2%	27.6%	23.8%	1.16×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.9%	18.9%	21.1%	0.90×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.6%	7.6%	7.5%	1.02×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.7%	2.8%	2.9%	0.96×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.3%	89.1%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.2%	71.9%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.1%	63.2%	64.3%	0.98×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.9%	36.8%	35.7%	1.03×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.8%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.7%	10.9%	12.8%	0.85×	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.2%	83.1%	75.7%	1.10×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.3%	79.4%	84.7%	0.94×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	53.2%	45.6%	1.17×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	46.8%	54.4%	0.86×	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.7%	20.6%	15.3%	1.35×	4.85
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.8%	16.9%	24.3%	0.70×	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to score in both halves	74.6%	74.0%	68.6%	1.08×	1.35
Crystal Palace not to score in both halves	73.9%	74.0%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Crystal Palace to score in both halves	26.1%	26.0%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84
Sunderland to score in both halves	25.4%	26.0%	31.4%	0.83×	3.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.6%	58.6%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Only Crystal Palace scores	18.7%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.24
Only Sunderland scores	18.0%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Neither team scores	5.8%	7.1%	5.0%	1.44×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.5%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.5%	17.5%	13.4%	1.30×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.9%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.0%	7.6%	10.6%	0.72×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.9%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.8%	7.6%	5.0%	1.54×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.3%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	26.8%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.54
2 goals in 1st half	23.2%	21.5%	23.0%	0.94×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.7%	10.8%	12.8%	0.84×	9.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.1%	45.0%	54.4%	0.83×	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	33.2%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.7%	22.7%	15.3%	1.49×	4.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win both halves	90.7%	94.1%	86.4%	1.09×	1.06
Crystal Palace not to win both halves	90.1%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Crystal Palace to win both halves	9.9%	5.9%	8.7%	0.69×	16.81
Sunderland to win both halves	9.3%	5.9%	13.6%	0.44×	16.85

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to win either half	53.0%	54.3%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Sunderland to win either half	51.8%	54.3%	58.7%	0.93×	1.84
Sunderland to win neither half	48.2%	45.7%	41.3%	1.11×	2.19
Crystal Palace to win neither half	47.0%	45.7%	51.7%	0.88×	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win to nil	82.0%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Crystal Palace not to win to nil	81.3%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Crystal Palace to win to nil	18.7%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.92
Sunderland to win to nil	18.0%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.1%	27.9%	24.8%	1.13×	3.59
Crystal Palace by 1	20.2%	24.1%	16.7%	1.44×	4.15
Sunderland by 1	19.8%	17.1%	19.1%	0.89×	5.86
Crystal Palace by 2	11.2%	11.8%	9.2%	1.27×	8.51
Sunderland by 2	10.8%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Crystal Palace by 3+	6.7%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.91
Sunderland by 3+	6.3%	7.2%	10.9%	0.66×	13.91