Sunderland v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Sunderland

16:30 UTC

Leeds United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 101h before kick-off

Sunderland win

39.8%

model 38.4%

Draw

28.9%

model 26.8%

Leeds United win

31.3%

model 34.8%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.7%
1-0 10.4%
0-1 9.8%
2-1 8.3%
0-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.3%	Under 2.5	53.7%
BTTS yes	51.4%	BTTS no	48.6%
Sunderland 1+	72.8%	Sunderland 2+	37.4%
Leeds United 1+	70.6%	Leeds United 2+	34.6%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.23. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

A half without a goal

Goal in both halves · usually 38%

54.7% fair odds 1.83

strong signal · 1057 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Leeds United (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 76%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Sunderland have created 1.59 xG a match over their last five while Leeds United have allowed 1.63.
At home Sunderland average 1.61 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sunderland have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 31.3% for Leeds United and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.30 for Sunderland and 1.23 for Leeds United.

Why Sunderland

Sunderland have created 1.59 xG a match over their last five while Leeds United have allowed 1.63. At home Sunderland average 1.61 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.30 to 1.23. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Leeds United can win

Leeds United carry the stronger rating, 1654 Elo against 1536. Leeds United have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.77. Away from home Leeds United average 1.54 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Sunderland were missing 0.81 expected goal involvements a match against 0.31.

Key players

Sunderland's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Enzo Le Fée (0.39), Brian Brobbey (0.32), Tymur Tutierov (0.25). Leeds United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.57), Anton Stach (0.29), Lukas Nmecha (0.23).

Availability

1 of Sunderland's top three contributors did not start their last match. Sunderland had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Sunderland: Kevin Danso (suspended). 1 of Leeds United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Leeds United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sunderland: 47% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces. Leeds United: 48% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.64 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Sunderland are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sunderland are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWWLWDLLLL last 10 scored 11 from 15.9 xG conceded 16 from 17.7 xG

Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWDDWDLD last 10 scored 11 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 16.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	382735	1.30–1.23	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	353233	1.09–1.05	1-1 15%	36%	44%
dc-xg	332641	1.22–1.38	1-1 13%	48%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to win	38.5%	36.4%	32.3%	1.12×	2.75
Sunderland to win	35.0%	30.4%	43.0%	0.71×	3.29
Draw	26.6%	27.9%	24.8%	1.13×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United & not both score	21.1%	21.8%	17.1%	1.28×	4.59
Sunderland & not both score	19.0%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Leeds United & both teams score	17.4%	18.0%	15.3%	1.17×	5.57
Sunderland & both teams score	16.0%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.57
Draw & not both score	7.7%	8.3%	5.0%	1.68×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United & over 1.5	28.3%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.84
Leeds United & under 3.5	28.1%	26.1%	21.9%	1.19×	3.84
Sunderland & under 3.5	25.9%	26.1%	26.6%	0.98×	3.84
Sunderland & over 1.5	25.4%	26.1%	36.6%	0.71×	3.84
Leeds United & over 2.5	21.6%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.3%	21.6%	16.3%	1.33×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.3%	21.6%	16.3%	1.33×	4.63
Sunderland & over 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	30.3%	0.59×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Leeds United & under 2.5	16.8%	18.0%	12.6%	1.43×	5.56
Sunderland & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	12.8%	1.41×	5.56
Leeds United & over 3.5	10.3%	12.8%	10.6%	1.22×	7.79
Leeds United & under 1.5	10.1%	12.8%	7.1%	1.81×	7.79
Sunderland & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Sunderland & over 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	16.5%	0.48×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	5.0%	1.60×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (1UP)	54.4%	52.7%	51.5%	1.02×	1.90
Sunderland (1UP)	51.4%	52.5%	62.0%	0.85×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (2UP)	38.5%	37.5%	34.5%	1.09×	2.67
Sunderland (2UP)	35.0%	30.6%	44.7%	0.69×	3.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to win 2nd half	35.7%	36.1%	36.2%	1.00×	2.77
2nd half drawn	35.2%	36.1%	31.1%	1.16×	2.77
Leeds United to win 2nd half	29.1%	25.8%	32.8%	0.79×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.8%	84.4%	79.9%	1.06×	1.19
Leeds United over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.5%	52.6%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Leeds United under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.5%	47.4%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
Leeds United over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.2%	15.6%	20.1%	0.78×	6.40

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	75.5%	75.2%	1.01×	1.32
Sunderland over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.6%	58.0%	58.3%	0.99×	1.72
Sunderland under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.4%	42.0%	41.7%	1.01×	2.38
Sunderland over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	24.5%	24.8%	0.98×	4.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (+2.5)	94.9%	92.1%	89.1%	1.03×	1.09
Leeds United (+1.5)	85.0%	82.5%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Leeds United (+0.5)	65.0%	68.6%	57.0%	1.20×	1.46
Sunderland (+0.5)	61.5%	62.9%	67.7%	0.93×	1.59
Leeds United (-0.5)	38.5%	37.1%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
Sunderland (-0.5)	35.0%	31.4%	43.0%	0.73×	3.19
Sunderland (-1.5)	15.0%	17.5%	24.0%	0.73×	5.73
Sunderland (-2.5)	5.1%	7.9%	10.9%	0.72×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede	71.3%	76.7%	78.1%	0.98×	1.30
Leeds United clean sheet	28.7%	23.3%	21.9%	1.06×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United clean sheet in 1st half	67.9%	70.5%	48.8%	1.44×	1.42
Leeds United to concede in 1st half	32.1%	29.5%	51.2%	0.58×	3.39

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede in 2nd half	57.6%	57.4%	58.3%	0.98×	1.74
Leeds United clean sheet in 2nd half	42.4%	42.6%	41.7%	1.02×	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 6.5 corners	87.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Leeds United under 5.5 corners	78.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Leeds United over 2.5 corners	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Leeds United under 4.5 corners	65.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Leeds United over 3.5 corners	50.8%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Leeds United under 3.5 corners	49.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Leeds United over 4.5 corners	34.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Leeds United under 2.5 corners	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Leeds United over 5.5 corners	21.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Leeds United over 6.5 corners	13.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 3.5 goals	95.5%	97.5%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Leeds United under 2.5 goals	85.2%	87.8%	85.1%	1.03×	1.14
Leeds United over 0.5 goals	73.3%	71.9%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Leeds United under 1.5 goals	62.0%	63.2%	60.6%	1.04×	1.58
Leeds United over 1.5 goals	38.0%	36.8%	39.4%	0.94×	2.72
Leeds United under 0.5 goals	26.7%	28.1%	25.0%	1.12×	3.56
Leeds United over 2.5 goals	14.8%	12.2%	14.9%	0.82×	8.19
Leeds United over 3.5 goals	4.5%	2.5%	5.4%	0.47×	39.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.4%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Leeds United under 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	61.9%	59.7%	1.04×	1.62
Leeds United over 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	38.1%	40.3%	0.95×	2.62
Leeds United over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.6%	10.7%	0.99×	9.40

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United scores equally in both	39.4%	37.4%	37.5%	1.00×	2.68
Leeds United scores more in 2nd half	35.5%	37.3%	40.8%	0.91×	2.68
Leeds United scores more in 1st half	25.1%	26.2%	21.7%	1.21×	3.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (away no bet)	56.8%	57.4%	63.5%	0.90×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.2%	42.6%	36.5%	1.17×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United even goals	53.6%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Leeds United odd goals	46.4%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.1%	88.0%	80.0%	1.10×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.9%	12.0%	20.0%	0.60×	8.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.8%	57.6%	70.1%	0.82×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.2%	42.4%	29.9%	1.42×	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.3%	51.0%	61.6%	0.83×	1.96
Leeds United to score 2+ in a row	30.2%	29.1%	29.7%	0.98×	3.44
Sunderland to score 2+ in a row	27.6%	25.2%	39.2%	0.64×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.1%	16.3%	26.1%	0.62×	6.15
Leeds United to score 3+ in a row	9.4%	5.6%	10.1%	0.56×	17.80
Sunderland to score 3+ in a row	8.0%	5.6%	16.4%	0.34×	17.91

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland corners (+3.5)	89.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sunderland corners (+2.5)	83.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Leeds United corners (+3.5)	79.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Sunderland corners (+1.5)	74.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Leeds United corners (+2.5)	70.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Leeds United corners (+1.5)	59.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sunderland corners (-1.5)	40.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sunderland corners (-2.5)	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Leeds United corners (-1.5)	25.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Sunderland corners (-3.5)	20.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Leeds United corners (-2.5)	17.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Leeds United corners (-3.5)	10.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	18.3%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	81.7%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	25.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	18.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.6%	11.5%	11.4%	1.01×	8.72
0-1	10.1%	11.5%	7.1%	1.62×	8.73
1-0	9.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
0-0	7.7%	7.4%	5.0%	1.50×	13.50
0-2	6.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
1-2	8.3%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
2-0	6.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
0-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-3	3.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32
Any other score	2.0%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (2nd half DNB)	55.0%	59.3%	52.5%	1.13×	1.69
Leeds United (2nd half DNB)	45.0%	40.7%	47.5%	0.86×	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United leading at HT (DNB)	62.1%	65.6%	40.2%	1.63×	1.53
Sunderland leading at HT (DNB)	37.9%	34.4%	59.8%	0.58×	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland or Leeds United (12)	73.4%	72.1%	75.2%	0.96×	1.39
Leeds United or draw (X2)	65.0%	69.6%	57.0%	1.22×	1.44
Sunderland or draw (1X)	61.5%	63.6%	67.7%	0.94×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United or draw at HT	80.0%	79.2%	63.9%	1.24×	1.26
Sunderland or draw at HT	67.2%	66.7%	75.7%	0.88×	1.50
Sunderland or Leeds United at HT	52.8%	47.9%	60.2%	0.79×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United or draw (1UP)	65.0%	76.1%	65.3%	1.17×	1.32
Sunderland or draw (1UP)	61.5%	71.6%	74.3%	0.96×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland or draw in 2nd half	70.9%	74.2%	67.2%	1.10×	1.35
Sunderland or Leeds United in 2nd half	64.8%	63.9%	68.9%	0.93×	1.56
Leeds United or draw in 2nd half	64.3%	63.9%	63.8%	1.00×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.8%	68.1%	57.1%	1.19×	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.2%	31.9%	42.9%	0.74×	3.13

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (DNB)	52.4%	50.9%	42.9%	1.19×	1.96
Sunderland (DNB)	47.6%	49.1%	57.1%	0.86×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score first	47.5%	46.0%	43.3%	1.06×	2.17
Sunderland to score first	44.8%	41.8%	51.8%	0.81×	2.39
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	5.0%	1.51×	13.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.2%	51.3%	58.0%	0.88×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.8%	48.7%	42.0%	1.16×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.0%	41.6%	30.2%	1.38×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	39.6%	38.4%	46.7%	0.82×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.6%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.5%	85.6%	82.1%	1.04×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.5%	14.4%	17.9%	0.80×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.7%	67.4%	68.6%	0.98×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.3%	32.6%	31.4%	1.04×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.9%	60.1%	55.9%	1.08×	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	26.0%	27.4%	24.7%	1.11×	3.66
Both score 1st half only	9.8%	6.9%	12.8%	0.54×	14.57
Both score in both halves	4.3%	5.0%	6.8%	0.72×	20.15

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.9%	85.1%	80.4%	1.06×	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	14.1%	14.9%	19.6%	0.76×	6.72

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.6%	52.6%	38.4%	1.37×	1.90
A goal in each half	49.4%	47.4%	61.6%	0.77×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12
0-1 goals	27.4%	26.6%	18.3%	1.45×	3.76
4-6 goals	24.1%	22.9%	32.8%	0.70×	4.36
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	2.8%	0.66×	54.34

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score exactly 1	35.3%	35.9%	35.7%	1.01×	2.78
Leeds United to score exactly 0	26.7%	27.4%	25.0%	1.09×	3.66
Leeds United to score exactly 2	23.3%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Leeds United to score 3+	14.8%	12.9%	14.9%	0.86×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.6%	29.2%	1.22×	2.81
Sunderland to score exactly 0	28.7%	26.6%	21.9%	1.21×	3.77
Sunderland to score exactly 2	22.3%	23.3%	26.1%	0.89×	4.29
Sunderland to score 3+	13.1%	14.3%	22.9%	0.62×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.2%	52.1%	39.8%	1.31×	1.92
Leeds United leading at HT	32.8%	33.3%	24.3%	1.37×	3.00
Sunderland leading at HT	20.0%	20.8%	36.1%	0.58×	4.81

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United -1: 1	61.5%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Leeds United -1: X	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Leeds United -1: 2	17.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:1)	65.0%	65.2%	57.0%	1.14×	1.54
Draw (0:1)	19.9%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61
Sunderland (0:1)	15.0%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:2)	85.0%	83.0%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.0%	7.7%	13.2%	0.58×	13.02
Sunderland (0:2)	5.1%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:3)	94.9%	92.7%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	42.03
Sunderland (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.99
Sunderland (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (1:0)	61.5%	65.3%	67.7%	0.97×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	21.1%	21.7%	16.7%	1.29×	4.61
Leeds United (1:0)	17.3%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (2:0)	82.7%	84.6%	84.3%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.2%	10.3%	9.2%	1.11×	9.73
Leeds United (2:0)	6.1%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.3%	50.2%	49.6%	1.01×	1.99
Halves equal	25.0%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.10
1st half highest scoring	22.7%	24.3%	25.8%	0.94×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede	73.3%	73.2%	75.0%	0.98×	1.37
Sunderland clean sheet	26.7%	26.8%	25.0%	1.07×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland clean sheet in 1st half	56.2%	61.9%	59.7%	1.04×	1.62
Sunderland to concede in 1st half	43.8%	38.1%	40.3%	0.95×	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede in 2nd half	52.5%	52.7%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Sunderland clean sheet in 2nd half	47.5%	47.3%	42.2%	1.12×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 6.5 corners	78.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sunderland over 2.5 corners	77.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sunderland under 5.5 corners	68.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sunderland over 3.5 corners	61.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sunderland under 4.5 corners	54.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Sunderland over 4.5 corners	45.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Sunderland under 3.5 corners	38.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Sunderland over 5.5 corners	32.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Sunderland under 2.5 corners	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Sunderland over 6.5 corners	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 3.5 goals	96.2%	96.4%	91.5%	1.05×	1.04
Sunderland under 2.5 goals	86.9%	87.3%	77.1%	1.13×	1.15
Sunderland over 0.5 goals	71.3%	74.2%	78.1%	0.95×	1.35
Sunderland under 1.5 goals	64.6%	63.6%	51.1%	1.25×	1.57
Sunderland over 1.5 goals	35.4%	36.4%	48.9%	0.74×	2.75
Sunderland under 0.5 goals	28.7%	25.8%	21.9%	1.17×	3.88
Sunderland over 2.5 goals	13.1%	12.7%	22.9%	0.56×	7.85
Sunderland over 3.5 goals	3.8%	3.6%	8.5%	0.43×	27.49

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 1.5 in 1st half	94.2%	94.9%	84.4%	1.12×	1.05
Sunderland under 0.5 in 1st half	67.9%	68.9%	48.8%	1.41×	1.45
Sunderland over 0.5 in 1st half	32.1%	31.1%	51.2%	0.61×	3.21
Sunderland over 1.5 in 1st half	5.8%	5.1%	15.6%	0.33×	19.60

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland scores more in 2nd half	45.0%	47.2%	36.1%	1.31×	2.12
Sunderland scores equally in both	39.1%	37.9%	37.7%	1.01×	2.64
Sunderland scores more in 1st half	15.8%	14.6%	26.3%	0.56×	6.84

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (home no bet)	59.1%	56.5%	56.6%	1.00×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.9%	43.5%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland even goals	54.1%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Sunderland odd goals	45.9%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.2%	39.5%	28.1%	1.40×	2.53
HT 0-1	22.0%	24.4%	14.8%	1.65×	4.10
HT 1-0	14.8%	11.0%	21.5%	0.51×	9.05
HT 1-1	8.5%	6.9%	10.8%	0.64×	14.47
HT 0-2	6.3%	6.9%	4.4%	1.58×	14.50
HT 2-0	2.9%	2.4%	8.0%	0.30×	42.09
Any other HT score	2.8%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.10
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.12
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.17
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United at HT / Leeds United at FT	23.2%	21.8%	16.7%	1.30×	4.58
Draw at HT / Sunderland at FT	16.8%	16.7%	13.9%	1.21×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.6%	16.7%	13.8%	1.21×	5.98
Sunderland at HT / Sunderland at FT	14.9%	12.7%	26.4%	0.48×	7.90
Draw at HT / Leeds United at FT	13.7%	12.7%	12.3%	1.03×	7.90
Leeds United at HT / Draw at FT	6.4%	6.0%	4.8%	1.26×	16.65
Sunderland at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	6.4%	0.55×	28.63
Leeds United at HT / Sunderland at FT	3.2%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.65
Sunderland at HT / Leeds United at FT	1.5%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score last	47.5%	46.5%	45.1%	1.03×	2.15
Sunderland to score last	44.8%	40.1%	50.1%	0.80×	2.49
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	5.0%	1.51×	13.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	92.6%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Leeds United to lead by 1 at any time	54.4%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Sunderland to lead by 1 at any time	51.4%	50.8%	62.0%	0.82×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.4%	39.2%	50.6%	0.77×	2.55
Leeds United to lead by 2 at any time	23.0%	19.7%	21.0%	0.93×	5.09
Sunderland to lead by 2 at any time	20.5%	19.6%	29.9%	0.66×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.3%	10.5%	21.2%	0.50×	9.53
Leeds United to lead by 3 at any time	7.8%	6.7%	8.1%	0.83×	14.89
Sunderland to lead by 3 at any time	6.5%	6.7%	13.2%	0.51×	14.95

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland most corners	52.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Leeds United most corners	36.2%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.5%	83.4%	77.9%	1.07×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.0%	72.4%	79.0%	0.92×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.0%	68.8%	75.1%	0.92×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.6%	68.8%	59.7%	1.15×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.3%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.5%	46.3%	1.05×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.7%	48.5%	55.8%	0.87×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.0%	43.6%	36.6%	1.19×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.7%	43.6%	51.9%	0.84×	2.30
3-4 goals	35.5%	39.2%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.1%	24.5%	32.8%	0.75×	4.08
4-5 goals	21.0%	24.5%	28.9%	0.85×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.2%	14.8%	14.5%	1.02×	6.76
7+ goals	1.6%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United never behind	41.0%	48.4%	38.0%	1.28×	2.07
Sunderland never behind	37.9%	44.1%	48.5%	0.91×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.3%	57.7%	53.5%	1.08×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.7%	42.3%	46.5%	0.91×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.3%	95.4%	93.3%	1.02×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.2%	87.6%	82.8%	1.06×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	64.5%	1.12×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	81.7%	0.89×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.7%	52.5%	41.5%	1.27×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	47.3%	47.5%	58.5%	0.81×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	18.3%	1.50×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	35.5%	0.78×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.8%	12.4%	17.2%	0.72×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	5.0%	1.56×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.7%	4.6%	6.7%	0.69×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.0%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.3%	86.7%	78.9%	1.10×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.2%	67.4%	53.9%	1.25×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.3%	61.9%	76.2%	0.81×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.7%	38.1%	23.8%	1.60×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.8%	32.6%	46.1%	0.71×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.7%	13.3%	21.1%	0.63×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.0%	7.6%	7.5%	1.02×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.7%	2.8%	2.9%	0.96×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.6%	92.6%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.9%	71.9%	64.3%	1.12×	1.39
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.8%	63.2%	71.9%	0.88×	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.2%	36.8%	28.1%	1.31×	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.1%	28.1%	35.7%	0.79×	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.4%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.9%	79.4%	84.7%	0.94×	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.2%	79.4%	75.7%	1.05×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.4%	53.2%	45.6%	1.17×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.6%	46.8%	54.4%	0.86×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.8%	20.6%	24.3%	0.85×	4.85
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.1%	20.6%	15.3%	1.35×	4.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to score in both halves	81.5%	84.3%	68.6%	1.23×	1.19
Leeds United not to score in both halves	77.0%	78.4%	76.9%	1.02×	1.28
Leeds United to score in both halves	23.0%	21.6%	23.1%	0.94×	4.63
Sunderland to score in both halves	18.5%	15.7%	31.4%	0.50×	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.2%	53.8%	58.0%	0.93×	1.86
Only Leeds United scores	21.1%	22.2%	17.1%	1.30×	4.50
Only Sunderland scores	19.0%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.7%	7.1%	5.0%	1.44×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.9%	23.3%	1.07×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.7%	17.5%	13.4%	1.30×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.9%	12.1%	18.3%	0.66×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.6%	5.0%	1.54×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.1%	7.6%	10.6%	0.72×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.7%	4.5%	6.7%	0.67×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.2%	37.4%	28.1%	1.33×	2.67
1 goal in 1st half	36.8%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	17.7%	15.6%	23.0%	0.68×	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	7.4%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.58

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.6%	45.2%	54.4%	0.83×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.3%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	20.1%	22.7%	15.3%	1.48×	4.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win both halves	92.9%	94.1%	86.4%	1.09×	1.06
Leeds United not to win both halves	90.4%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Leeds United to win both halves	9.6%	5.9%	8.7%	0.69×	16.83
Sunderland to win both halves	7.1%	5.9%	13.6%	0.43×	17.00

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to win either half	52.4%	54.3%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Sunderland to win neither half	51.5%	54.3%	41.3%	1.31×	1.84
Sunderland to win either half	48.5%	45.7%	58.7%	0.78×	2.19
Leeds United to win neither half	47.6%	45.7%	51.7%	0.88×	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win to nil	81.0%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Leeds United not to win to nil	78.9%	78.1%	82.9%	0.94×	1.28
Leeds United to win to nil	21.1%	21.9%	17.1%	1.28×	4.57
Sunderland to win to nil	19.0%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.6%	27.9%	24.8%	1.13×	3.59
Leeds United by 1	21.1%	24.1%	16.7%	1.44×	4.15
Sunderland by 1	19.9%	17.1%	19.1%	0.89×	5.86
Leeds United by 2	11.2%	11.8%	9.2%	1.27×	8.51
Sunderland by 2	10.0%	7.2%	13.2%	0.55×	13.90
Leeds United by 3+	6.1%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.91
Sunderland by 3+	5.1%	7.2%	10.9%	0.66×	13.92