Sunderland v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-1.24 – -0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
26.9%
Draw
30.5%
Manchester United win
42.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.15–1.63 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 55% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 1.24 xGManchester United 0.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 5' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 7' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 9' |
 Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 10' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 18' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Trai Hume |
| 18' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Sunderland |
Lutsharel Geertruida | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 27' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trai Hume |
| 33' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 37' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 61' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lutsharel Geertruida |
| 62' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 70' |
Sunderland |
Lutsharel Geertruida | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Brian Brobbey |
| 76' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 84' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nilson Angulo |
| 84' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 92' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 94' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
Players
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mason Mount DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Joshua Zirkzee FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Patrick Dorgu Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Bryan Mbeumo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Sadiki DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.79 |
| Enzo Le Fée AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.66 | 1.03 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Trai Hume AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Chemsdine Talbi AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nilson Angulo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Eliezer Mayenda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |