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Sunderland v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 16 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG

3–0
0.72 – 0.56 xG
Shots
10 – 12
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+2.28 – -0.56
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.20.40.60.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Eliezer Mayenda 60' — goalDan Ballard 72' — goalWilson Isidor 91' — goal
Sunderland 0.72 xGWest Ham United 0.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jarrod Bowen 2' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)El Hadji Malick Diouf 3' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Habib Diarra 5' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Dan Ballard 6' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)El Hadji Malick Diouf 25' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Niclas Füllkrug 26' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jarrod Bowen 28' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Guido Rodríguez 41' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dan Ballard 43' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Eliezer Mayenda 43' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Simon Adingra 47' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Dan Ballard 57' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Habib Diarra 59' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Eliezer Mayenda 60' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dan Ballard 72' — Goal (0.03 xG, From Corner)El Hadji Malick Diouf 77' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jarrod Bowen 84' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Tomas Soucek 84' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Callum Wilson 86' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Niclas Füllkrug 89' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Wilson Isidor 91' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jarrod Bowen 95' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)
Sunderland attacking right West Ham United attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot James Ward-Prowse
3' West Ham United El Hadji Malick Diouf 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
5' Sunderland Habib Diarra 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Eliezer Mayenda
6' Sunderland Dan Ballard 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Granit Xhaka
25' West Ham United El Hadji Malick Diouf 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Niclas Füllkrug
26' West Ham United Niclas Füllkrug 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot El Hadji Malick Diouf
28' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot El Hadji Malick Diouf
41' West Ham United Guido Rodríguez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
43' Sunderland Dan Ballard 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot Granit Xhaka
43' Sunderland Eliezer Mayenda 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
47' Sunderland Simon Adingra 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
57' Sunderland Dan Ballard 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Trai Hume
59' Sunderland Habib Diarra 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Simon Adingra
60' Sunderland Eliezer Mayenda 0.04 Open Play Goal Omar Alderete
72' Sunderland Dan Ballard 0.03 From Corner Goal
77' West Ham United El Hadji Malick Diouf 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
84' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.06 From Corner Blocked Shot Andy Irving
84' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
86' West Ham United Callum Wilson 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot
89' West Ham United Niclas Füllkrug 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot Aaron Wan-Bissaka
91' Sunderland Wilson Isidor 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal Chemsdine Talbi
95' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.03 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Max Kilman

Players

West Ham United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jarrod Bowen FW 90 0 0 4 0 0.20 0.00 0.20
Niclas Füllkrug FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.09 0.28
El Hadji Malick Diouf ML 90 0 0 3 2 0.12 0.14 0.23
Aaron Wan-Bissaka MR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.13
Naif Aguerd DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Max Kilman DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.08
Mads Hermansen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Lucas Paquetá AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Jean-Clair Todibo DC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Guido Rodríguez MC 71 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.22
James Ward-Prowse MC 71 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.16
Tomas Soucek Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Callum Wilson Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Andy Irving Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.00

Sunderland

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Habib Diarra MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.32 0.00 0.32
Dan Ballard DC 90 1 0 4 0 0.11 0.00 0.04
Chemsdine Talbi FWR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.40
Granit Xhaka MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.04
Noah Sadiki MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.34
Reinildo DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Robin Roefs GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Trai Hume DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.34
Eliezer Mayenda FW 76 1 0 2 1 0.13 0.30 0.34
Simon Adingra FWL 76 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.02 0.40
Jenson Seelt DC 53 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Omar Alderete Sub 37 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.13
Wilson Isidor Sub 14 1 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Enzo Le Fée Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chris Rigg Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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