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SV Josko Ried v Wolfsberger — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · AUT-Bundesliga · 2627

AUT-Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
SV Josko Ried win
39.2%
model 38.0%
Draw
30.4%
model 30.3%
Wolfsberger win
30.4%
model 31.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (574 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.4%
  2. 0-0 10.6%
  3. 1-0 10.4%
  4. 0-1 9.2%
  5. 2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.542.2% Under 2.557.8%
BTTS yes49.3% BTTS no50.7%
SV Josko Ried 1+71.3% SV Josko Ried 2+35.5%
Wolfsberger 1+67.4% Wolfsberger 2+30.8%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.12. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 47%
57.8% fair odds 1.73
strong signal · 12482 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Wolfsberger (+1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 77%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 13600 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out SV Josko Ried.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0106 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

SV Josko Ried have an estimated 39.2% win probability, against 30.4% for Wolfsberger and 30.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for SV Josko Ried and 1.12 for Wolfsberger.

Why SV Josko Ried

Nothing in the data singles out SV Josko Ried.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.4%. A combined 2.37 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.25 to 1.12. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Wolfsberger can win

Wolfsberger carry the stronger rating, 1471 Elo against 1437.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for SV Josko Ried, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Wolfsberger, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

SV Josko Ried: 52% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Wolfsberger: 40% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. SV Josko Ried's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

SV Josko Ried are the model's most likely outcome at 39.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.25–1.12 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.17–1.11 1-1 15% 40% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to win 38.0% 37.7% 43.6% 0.86× 2.66
Wolfsberger to win 31.7% 31.5% 31.4% 1.00× 3.17
Draw 30.3% 31.5% 25.2% 1.25× 3.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried & not both score 22.0% 21.7% 22.6% 0.96× 4.61
Draw & both teams score 19.7% 18.1% 18.1% 1.00× 5.52
Wolfsberger & not both score 18.0% 18.1% 14.8% 1.23× 5.52
SV Josko Ried & both teams score 16.0% 18.1% 21.2% 0.86× 5.52
Wolfsberger & both teams score 13.6% 12.7% 16.9% 0.75× 7.88
Draw & not both score 10.6% 12.7% 7.4% 1.72× 7.88
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried & under 3.5 28.9% 26.4% 30.5% 0.87× 3.79
SV Josko Ried & over 1.5 27.6% 26.4% 34.8% 0.76× 3.79
Draw & under 2.5 25.0% 21.8% 19.5% 1.12× 4.58
Draw & under 3.5 25.0% 21.8% 19.5% 1.12× 4.58
Wolfsberger & under 3.5 24.6% 21.8% 22.1% 0.99× 4.58
Wolfsberger & over 1.5 22.5% 21.8% 25.5% 0.86× 4.58
SV Josko Ried & over 2.5 20.3% 21.8% 27.6% 0.79× 4.58
Draw & over 1.5 19.7% 17.7% 18.1% 0.98× 5.64
SV Josko Ried & under 2.5 17.7% 17.7% 16.2% 1.09× 5.64
Wolfsberger & over 2.5 16.6% 17.7% 20.0% 0.89× 5.64
Wolfsberger & under 2.5 15.1% 17.7% 11.7% 1.52× 5.64
SV Josko Ried & under 1.5 10.4% 12.4% 9.0% 1.37× 8.06
Draw & under 1.5 10.6% 12.4% 7.4% 1.68× 8.06
SV Josko Ried & over 3.5 9.1% 7.6% 13.3% 0.57× 13.20
Wolfsberger & under 1.5 9.2% 7.6% 6.2% 1.22× 13.20
Wolfsberger & over 3.5 7.1% 7.6% 9.5% 0.80× 13.21
Draw & over 2.5 5.4% 7.6% 6.0% 1.27× 13.21
Draw & over 3.5 5.4% 7.6% 6.0% 1.27× 13.21
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (1UP) 53.4% 54.3% 1.84
Wolfsberger (1UP) 47.8% 48.1% 2.08
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (2UP) 38.0% 38.2% 2.62
Wolfsberger (2UP) 31.7% 35.5% 2.82
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.4% 36.5% 2.74
SV Josko Ried to win 2nd half 31.5% 32.8% 3.05
Wolfsberger to win 2nd half 29.1% 28.4% 3.53
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger under 1.5 in 2nd half 85.4% 85.8% 1.17
Wolfsberger under 0.5 in 2nd half 51.1% 50.0% 2.00
Wolfsberger over 0.5 in 2nd half 48.9% 50.0% 2.00
Wolfsberger over 1.5 in 2nd half 14.6% 14.2% 7.05
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.0% 79.2% 1.26
SV Josko Ried over 0.5 in 2nd half 51.0% 54.1% 1.85
SV Josko Ried under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.0% 45.9% 2.18
SV Josko Ried over 1.5 in 2nd half 16.0% 20.8% 4.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger (+2.5) 94.1% 92.3% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Wolfsberger (+1.5) 82.7% 83.2% 76.9% 1.08× 1.20
SV Josko Ried (+0.5) 68.3% 67.9% 68.6% 0.99× 1.47
Wolfsberger (+0.5) 62.0% 62.7% 56.4% 1.11× 1.60
SV Josko Ried (-0.5) 38.0% 37.3% 43.6% 0.86× 2.68
Wolfsberger (-0.5) 31.7% 32.1% 31.4% 1.02× 3.12
SV Josko Ried (-1.5) 17.3% 16.8% 23.1% 0.73× 5.95
SV Josko Ried (-2.5) 5.9% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 12.98
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger to concede 71.4% 75.6% 78.1% 0.97× 1.32
Wolfsberger clean sheet 28.6% 24.4% 21.9% 1.11× 4.10
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger clean sheet in 1st half 58.4% 57.4% 1.74
Wolfsberger to concede in 1st half 41.6% 42.6% 2.35
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger to concede in 2nd half 51.0% 54.5% 1.84
Wolfsberger clean sheet in 2nd half 49.0% 45.5% 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger under 6.5 corners 83.1% 81.4% 1.23
Wolfsberger over 2.5 corners 73.6% 71.6% 1.40
Wolfsberger under 5.5 corners 73.1% 71.6% 1.40
Wolfsberger under 4.5 corners 59.6% 57.1% 1.75
Wolfsberger over 3.5 corners 56.6% 57.1% 1.75
Wolfsberger under 3.5 corners 43.4% 42.9% 2.33
Wolfsberger over 4.5 corners 40.4% 42.9% 2.33
Wolfsberger over 5.5 corners 26.9% 28.4% 3.52
Wolfsberger under 2.5 corners 26.4% 28.4% 3.52
Wolfsberger over 6.5 corners 16.9% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger under 3.5 goals 97.3% 97.3% 96.9% 1.00× 1.03
Wolfsberger under 2.5 goals 89.6% 87.1% 86.9% 1.00× 1.15
Wolfsberger under 1.5 goals 69.2% 67.5% 64.8% 1.04× 1.48
Wolfsberger over 0.5 goals 67.4% 67.5% 70.2% 0.96× 1.48
Wolfsberger under 0.5 goals 32.6% 32.5% 29.8% 1.09× 3.08
Wolfsberger over 1.5 goals 30.8% 32.5% 35.2% 0.92× 3.08
Wolfsberger over 2.5 goals 10.4% 12.9% 13.1% 0.98× 7.77
Wolfsberger over 3.5 goals 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% 0.87× 37.12
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger under 1.5 in 1st half 92.5% 93.8% 1.07
Wolfsberger under 0.5 in 1st half 63.9% 62.5% 1.60
Wolfsberger over 0.5 in 1st half 36.1% 37.5% 2.67
Wolfsberger over 1.5 in 1st half 7.5% 6.2% 16.18
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger scores equally in both 43.2% 42.2% 2.37
Wolfsberger scores more in 2nd half 35.7% 38.0% 2.63
Wolfsberger scores more in 1st half 21.1% 23.5% 4.26
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (away no bet) 55.6% 58.6% 63.3% 0.93× 1.71
Draw (away no bet) 44.4% 41.4% 36.7% 1.13× 2.42
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger even goals 55.3% 56.4% 53.6% 1.05× 1.77
Wolfsberger odd goals 44.7% 43.6% 46.4% 0.94× 2.29
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.6% 86.9% 1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.4% 13.1% 7.64
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 56.4% 59.6% 1.68
Both halves under 1.5 goals 43.6% 40.4% 2.48
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 48.3% 49.9% 2.01
SV Josko Ried to score 2+ in a row 28.7% 26.7% 3.74
Wolfsberger to score 2+ in a row 24.0% 21.8% 4.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.9% 12.9% 7.74
SV Josko Ried to score 3+ in a row 8.7% 7.7% 12.91
Wolfsberger to score 3+ in a row 6.4% 7.7% 12.98
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried corners (+3.5) 90.6% 89.6% 1.12
SV Josko Ried corners (+2.5) 85.3% 84.5% 1.18
SV Josko Ried corners (+1.5) 78.2% 74.8% 1.34
Wolfsberger corners (+3.5) 71.5% 70.7% 1.41
Wolfsberger corners (+2.5) 62.1% 61.8% 1.62
Wolfsberger corners (+1.5) 51.6% 52.5% 1.91
SV Josko Ried corners (-1.5) 48.4% 47.5% 2.10
SV Josko Ried corners (-2.5) 37.9% 38.2% 2.62
SV Josko Ried corners (-3.5) 28.5% 29.3% 3.42
Wolfsberger corners (-1.5) 21.8% 25.2% 3.97
Wolfsberger corners (-2.5) 14.7% 15.5% 6.45
Wolfsberger corners (-3.5) 9.4% 10.4% 9.57
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 39.2% 34.0% 2.94
12+ corners 31.2% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.6% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 76.6% 76.5% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 71.0% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 68.8% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 60.8% 63.3% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 59.8% 57.9% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 50.3% 53.2% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 49.7% 46.8% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 40.2% 42.1% 2.38
Under 8.5 corners 39.2% 36.7% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 31.2% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 29.0% 27.4% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 23.4% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.4% 11.2% 12.4% 0.91× 8.91
0-0 10.6% 11.2% 7.4% 1.52× 8.91
1-0 10.4% 11.2% 9.0% 1.24× 8.91
0-1 9.2% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.45
0-2 5.9% 7.4% 5.7% 1.30× 13.45
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 7.9% 0.95× 13.45
2-0 7.3% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.45
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 10.5% 0.71× 13.45
0-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.34
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 3.60× 58.35
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.34
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.80× 58.35
2-2 4.6% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.34
2-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.34
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.60× 58.35
3-0 3.0% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.34
3-1 3.4% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.34
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.34
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.40× 58.35
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.40× 58.35
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.80× 58.35
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.35
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.35
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 7.20× 58.35
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.20× 58.35
Any other score 1.5% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.34
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (2nd half DNB) 52.0% 51.3% 1.95
Wolfsberger (2nd half DNB) 48.0% 48.7% 2.05
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried leading at HT (DNB) 55.7% 56.9% 1.76
Wolfsberger leading at HT (DNB) 44.3% 43.1% 2.32
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or Wolfsberger (12) 69.7% 68.5% 74.8% 0.92× 1.46
SV Josko Ried or draw (1X) 68.3% 68.5% 68.6% 1.00× 1.46
Wolfsberger or draw (X2) 62.0% 62.3% 56.4% 1.10× 1.60
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or draw at HT 76.7% 76.8% 1.30
Wolfsberger or draw at HT 70.6% 71.1% 1.41
SV Josko Ried or Wolfsberger at HT 52.7% 53.9% 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or draw (1UP) 68.3% 71.4% 1.40
Wolfsberger or draw (1UP) 62.0% 70.1% 1.43
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or draw in 2nd half 70.9% 71.6% 1.40
Wolfsberger or draw in 2nd half 68.5% 67.2% 1.49
SV Josko Ried or Wolfsberger in 2nd half 60.6% 63.5% 1.58
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.7% 65.2% 1.54
Neither half drawn 33.3% 34.8% 2.87
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (DNB) 54.5% 51.7% 58.1% 0.89× 1.94
Wolfsberger (DNB) 45.5% 48.3% 41.9% 1.15× 2.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to score first 47.2% 46.1% 2.17
Wolfsberger to score first 42.2% 43.7% 2.29
No goal scored 10.6% 6.9% 14.57
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.7% 51.6% 44.3% 1.17× 1.94
Both teams to score 49.3% 48.4% 55.7% 0.87× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 43.4% 41.6% 34.8% 1.20× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 35.0% 34.0% 43.6% 0.78× 2.94
Both score & under 2.5 14.4% 11.9% 12.4% 0.96× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 7.3% 8.4% 9.8% 0.86× 11.85
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.0% 85.7% 86.9% 0.99× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.0% 14.3% 13.1% 1.09× 7.01
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.6% 70.9% 1.41
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.4% 29.1% 3.44
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 63.1% 60.6% 1.65
Both score 2nd half only 21.6% 23.4% 4.28
Both score 1st half only 11.5% 11.9% 8.43
Both score in both halves 3.7% 4.9% 20.60
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.8% 82.7% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.2% 17.3% 5.78
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 52.4% 52.5% 1.91
A goal in each half 47.6% 47.5% 2.10
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.3% 46.5% 49.8% 0.93× 2.15
0-1 goals 30.2% 31.2% 22.1% 1.41× 3.21
4-6 goals 20.4% 23.5% 26.7% 0.88× 4.26
7+ goals 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.05× 49.78
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger to score exactly 1 36.5% 36.0% 35.2% 1.02× 2.78
Wolfsberger to score exactly 0 32.6% 32.3% 29.8% 1.09× 3.09
Wolfsberger to score exactly 2 20.5% 23.2% 22.4% 1.04× 4.30
Wolfsberger to score 3+ 10.4% 13.0% 13.1% 0.99× 7.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to score exactly 1 35.8% 36.6% 34.8% 1.05× 2.73
SV Josko Ried to score exactly 0 28.6% 26.4% 21.9% 1.21× 3.78
SV Josko Ried to score exactly 2 22.4% 22.9% 25.5% 0.90× 4.38
SV Josko Ried to score 3+ 13.2% 13.3% 18.3% 0.72× 7.53
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.3% 46.1% 2.17
SV Josko Ried leading at HT 29.4% 28.9% 3.47
Wolfsberger leading at HT 23.3% 23.2% 4.30
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried -1: 2 62.0% 61.4% 1.63
SV Josko Ried -1: X 20.7% 23.3% 4.29
SV Josko Ried -1: 1 17.3% 17.8% 5.61
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger (0:1) 62.0% 60.1% 56.4% 1.06× 1.67
Draw (0:1) 20.7% 23.6% 20.7% 1.14× 4.24
SV Josko Ried (0:1) 17.3% 18.2% 23.1% 0.79× 5.49
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger (0:2) 82.7% 82.9% 76.9% 1.08× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.4% 11.4% 14.0% 0.81× 8.81
SV Josko Ried (0:2) 5.9% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 12.97
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger (0:3) 94.1% 92.6% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.3% 2.6% 6.2% 0.41× 39.14
SV Josko Ried (0:3) 1.6% 2.6% 3.3% 0.77× 39.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger (0:4) 98.4% 97.7% 96.7% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.85× 70.73
SV Josko Ried (0:4) 0.4% 1.4% 1.9% 0.74× 70.76
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (1:0) 68.3% 69.1% 68.6% 1.01× 1.45
Draw (1:0) 18.5% 17.3% 16.4% 1.05× 5.77
Wolfsberger (1:0) 13.2% 12.6% 15.2% 0.82× 7.97
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (2:0) 86.8% 88.1% 84.8% 1.04× 1.14
Draw (2:0) 9.1% 6.6% 10.2% 0.65× 15.10
Wolfsberger (2:0) 4.1% 2.8% 5.2% 0.53× 35.88
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.0% 48.2% 2.08
Halves equal 29.0% 26.2% 3.82
1st half highest scoring 25.9% 26.1% 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to concede 67.4% 68.6% 70.2% 0.98× 1.46
SV Josko Ried clean sheet 32.6% 31.4% 29.8% 1.05× 3.19
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried clean sheet in 1st half 63.9% 62.2% 1.61
SV Josko Ried to concede in 1st half 36.1% 37.8% 2.65
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to concede in 2nd half 48.9% 50.4% 1.98
SV Josko Ried clean sheet in 2nd half 51.1% 49.6% 2.02
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried over 2.5 corners 86.3% 86.3% 1.16
SV Josko Ried over 3.5 corners 74.6% 71.9% 1.39
SV Josko Ried under 6.5 corners 65.3% 66.7% 1.50
SV Josko Ried over 4.5 corners 60.9% 62.2% 1.61
SV Josko Ried under 5.5 corners 52.8% 52.6% 1.90
SV Josko Ried over 5.5 corners 47.2% 47.4% 2.11
SV Josko Ried under 4.5 corners 39.1% 37.8% 2.65
SV Josko Ried over 6.5 corners 34.7% 33.3% 3.01
SV Josko Ried under 3.5 corners 25.4% 28.1% 3.56
SV Josko Ried under 2.5 corners 13.7% 13.7% 7.30
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried under 3.5 goals 96.2% 96.6% 92.4% 1.05× 1.04
SV Josko Ried under 2.5 goals 86.8% 87.3% 81.7% 1.07× 1.15
SV Josko Ried over 0.5 goals 71.4% 73.1% 78.1% 0.94× 1.37
SV Josko Ried under 1.5 goals 64.5% 62.4% 56.4% 1.11× 1.60
SV Josko Ried over 1.5 goals 35.6% 37.6% 43.6% 0.86× 2.66
SV Josko Ried under 0.5 goals 28.6% 26.9% 21.9% 1.23× 3.71
SV Josko Ried over 2.5 goals 13.2% 12.7% 18.3% 0.69× 7.87
SV Josko Ried over 3.5 goals 3.8% 3.4% 7.6% 0.45× 29.39
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried under 1.5 in 1st half 89.8% 87.8% 1.14
SV Josko Ried under 0.5 in 1st half 58.4% 57.5% 1.74
SV Josko Ried over 0.5 in 1st half 41.6% 42.5% 2.35
SV Josko Ried over 1.5 in 1st half 10.2% 12.2% 8.19
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried scores equally in both 40.7% 41.6% 2.40
SV Josko Ried scores more in 2nd half 35.1% 37.1% 2.70
SV Josko Ried scores more in 1st half 24.2% 23.2% 4.31
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger (home no bet) 51.1% 52.0% 55.5% 0.94× 1.92
Draw (home no bet) 48.9% 48.0% 44.5% 1.08× 2.08
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried even goals 54.1% 50.9% 52.1% 0.98× 1.96
SV Josko Ried odd goals 45.9% 49.1% 47.9% 1.03× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.5% 34.8% 2.87
HT 1-0 19.8% 19.9% 5.02
HT 0-1 16.5% 19.9% 5.03
HT 1-1 9.2% 8.0% 12.53
HT 2-0 5.4% 8.0% 12.56
HT 0-2 3.7% 2.5% 40.41
Any other HT score 2.8% 2.5% 40.46
HT 2-1 2.4% 2.5% 40.47
HT 1-2 2.0% 2.5% 40.49
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.5% 40.56
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried at HT / SV Josko Ried at FT 21.9% 20.9% 4.78
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.0% 17.3% 5.77
Wolfsberger at HT / Wolfsberger at FT 16.6% 17.3% 5.78
Draw at HT / SV Josko Ried at FT 14.3% 12.0% 8.32
Draw at HT / Wolfsberger at FT 13.1% 12.0% 8.32
SV Josko Ried at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.4% 15.51
Wolfsberger at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.6% 27.50
SV Josko Ried at HT / Wolfsberger at FT 2.0% 3.6% 27.58
Wolfsberger at HT / SV Josko Ried at FT 1.9% 3.6% 27.58
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to score last 47.2% 46.2% 2.16
Wolfsberger to score last 42.2% 43.4% 2.30
No goal scored 10.6% 7.0% 14.21
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.4% 92.7% 1.08
SV Josko Ried to lead by 1 at any time 53.4% 51.8% 1.93
Wolfsberger to lead by 1 at any time 47.8% 46.6% 2.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.2% 41.7% 2.40
SV Josko Ried to lead by 2 at any time 22.4% 21.4% 4.68
Wolfsberger to lead by 2 at any time 17.9% 17.6% 5.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.6% 11.0% 9.06
SV Josko Ried to lead by 3 at any time 7.3% 7.4% 13.48
Wolfsberger to lead by 3 at any time 5.3% 7.4% 13.54
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried most corners 59.1% 55.6% 1.80
Wolfsberger most corners 30.7% 34.3% 2.91
Corners level 10.2% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.0% 87.1% 86.2% 1.01× 1.15
1-4 goals 80.2% 82.1% 79.3% 1.04× 1.22
2-6 goals 68.7% 68.2% 76.2% 0.90× 1.47
1-3 goals 67.9% 68.2% 64.5% 1.06× 1.47
2-5 goals 66.4% 68.2% 71.4% 0.96× 1.47
2-4 goals 60.6% 62.7% 64.5% 0.97× 1.60
2-3 goals 48.3% 47.4% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
1-2 goals 47.1% 47.4% 39.8% 1.19× 2.11
3-6 goals 41.2% 43.6% 51.4% 0.85× 2.30
3-5 goals 38.9% 39.0% 46.7% 0.84× 2.56
3-4 goals 33.0% 34.7% 39.8% 0.87× 2.88
4-6 goals 20.4% 23.7% 26.7% 0.89× 4.22
4-5 goals 18.1% 18.9% 21.9% 0.86× 5.30
5-6 goals 8.1% 8.9% 11.9% 0.75× 11.21
7+ goals 1.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.19× 44.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger never behind 36.0% 47.3% 2.12
SV Josko Ried never behind 41.6% 47.1% 2.12
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 53.0% 50.1% 52.1% 0.96× 2.00
Odd number of goals 47.0% 49.9% 47.9% 1.04× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.4% 55.1% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 42.6% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.0% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.0% 48.4% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.6% 96.0% 93.3% 1.03× 1.04
Under 4.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 86.4% 1.07× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 89.4% 87.8% 92.6% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 78.5% 77.0% 71.7% 1.07× 1.30
Over 1.5 goals 69.8% 67.7% 77.9% 0.87× 1.48
Under 2.5 goals 57.7% 57.8% 46.9% 1.23× 1.73
Over 2.5 goals 42.3% 42.2% 53.1% 0.80× 2.37
Under 1.5 goals 30.2% 32.3% 22.1% 1.46× 3.09
Over 3.5 goals 21.5% 23.0% 28.3% 0.81× 4.34
Under 0.5 goals 10.6% 12.2% 7.4% 1.65× 8.21
Over 4.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 13.6% 0.57× 12.91
Over 5.5 goals 3.4% 4.0% 6.7% 0.60× 25.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.9% 97.3% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.4% 97.3% 92.8% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.5% 86.6% 84.1% 1.03× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 72.9% 72.1% 62.3% 1.16× 1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 58.3% 58.2% 70.6% 0.82× 1.72
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 41.7% 41.8% 29.4% 1.42× 2.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 27.1% 27.9% 37.7% 0.74× 3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.5% 13.4% 15.9% 0.84× 7.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.6% 2.7% 7.2% 0.38× 36.69
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.1% 2.7% 2.0% 1.36× 36.72
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.2% 91.9% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 73.9% 73.8% 1.35
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.5% 65.1% 1.54
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.5% 34.9% 2.87
Over 1.5 in 1st half 26.1% 26.2% 3.82
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.8% 8.1% 12.29
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 83.7% 82.5% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.5% 75.7% 1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 59.3% 57.1% 1.75
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.7% 42.9% 2.33
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.5% 24.3% 4.12
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 16.3% 17.5% 5.73
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger not to score in both halves 82.3% 81.2% 1.23
SV Josko Ried not to score in both halves 78.8% 75.8% 1.32
SV Josko Ried to score in both halves 21.2% 24.2% 4.14
Wolfsberger to score in both halves 17.7% 18.8% 5.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 49.3% 50.8% 55.7% 0.91× 1.97
Only SV Josko Ried scores 22.0% 21.5% 22.6% 0.95× 4.64
Only Wolfsberger scores 18.0% 16.9% 14.8% 1.14× 5.93
Neither team scores 10.6% 11.2% 7.4% 1.52× 8.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.5% 25.0% 25.0% 1.00× 4.00
Exactly 3 goals 20.7% 22.3% 25.0% 0.89× 4.49
Exactly 1 goals 19.6% 17.6% 15.0% 1.17× 5.68
Exactly 4 goals 12.3% 12.3% 15.0% 0.82× 8.14
Exactly 0 goals 10.6% 12.3% 7.4% 1.66× 8.15
Exactly 5 goals 5.8% 7.8% 7.1% 1.09× 12.89
6 or more goals 3.4% 4.0% 6.7% 0.61× 24.73
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 37.5% 36.9% 2.71
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 36.9% 2.71
2 goals in 1st half 18.3% 18.8% 5.31
3+ goals in 1st half 7.8% 8.1% 12.29
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 40.7% 43.0% 2.33
1 goal in 2nd half 33.8% 34.3% 2.91
No goals in 2nd half 25.5% 27.1% 3.69
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger not to win both halves 93.1% 92.6% 1.08
SV Josko Ried not to win both halves 90.5% 92.6% 1.08
SV Josko Ried to win both halves 9.5% 7.4% 13.45
Wolfsberger to win both halves 6.9% 7.4% 13.55
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger to win neither half 54.6% 53.0% 1.89
SV Josko Ried to win either half 51.4% 52.9% 1.89
SV Josko Ried to win neither half 48.6% 47.1% 2.13
Wolfsberger to win either half 45.4% 47.0% 2.13
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolfsberger not to win to nil 82.0% 82.9% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
SV Josko Ried not to win to nil 78.0% 78.4% 77.4% 1.01× 1.28
SV Josko Ried to win to nil 22.0% 21.6% 22.6% 0.95× 4.63
Wolfsberger to win to nil 18.0% 17.1% 14.8% 1.16× 5.86
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 30.3% 29.2% 25.2% 1.16× 3.43
SV Josko Ried by 1 20.7% 23.4% 20.7% 1.13× 4.27
Wolfsberger by 1 18.5% 17.2% 16.4% 1.05× 5.80
SV Josko Ried by 2 11.4% 11.8% 14.0% 0.84× 8.45
Wolfsberger by 2 9.1% 7.3% 10.2% 0.71× 13.77
SV Josko Ried by 3+ 5.9% 7.3% 9.3% 0.78× 13.77
Wolfsberger by 3+ 4.1% 3.0% 5.2% 0.57× 33.44
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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