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SV Josko Ried v WSG Swarovski Tirol — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · AUT-Bundesliga · 2627

AUT-Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
SV Josko Ried win
44.2%
model 43.7%
Draw
27.9%
model 29.5%
WSG Swarovski Tirol win
27.9%
model 26.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.0%
  2. 1-0 10.6%
  3. 0-0 9.9%
  4. 2-1 8.9%
  5. 2-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.544.7% Under 2.555.3%
BTTS yes50.6% BTTS no49.4%
SV Josko Ried 1+75.5% SV Josko Ried 2+41.1%
WSG Swarovski Tirol 1+65.2% WSG Swarovski Tirol 2+28.5%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 47%
57.2% fair odds 1.75
moderate signal · 1220 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
SV Josko Ried under 2.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 82%
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out SV Josko Ried.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0103 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

SV Josko Ried have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 27.9% for WSG Swarovski Tirol. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for SV Josko Ried and 1.06 for WSG Swarovski Tirol.

Why SV Josko Ried

Nothing in the data singles out SV Josko Ried.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why WSG Swarovski Tirol can win

Nothing in the data singles out WSG Swarovski Tirol.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for SV Josko Ried, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for WSG Swarovski Tirol, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

SV Josko Ried: 40% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. WSG Swarovski Tirol: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

SV Josko Ried are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.0%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.41–1.06 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.48–1.07 1-1 14% 47% 52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to win 45.2% 47.3% 43.5% 1.09× 2.11
Draw 28.7% 27.9% 25.4% 1.10× 3.58
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win 26.1% 27.9% 31.4% 0.89× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried & not both score 25.1% 25.1% 22.6% 1.11× 3.98
SV Josko Ried & both teams score 20.2% 21.8% 21.1% 1.03× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.6% 18.0% 18.3% 0.98× 5.56
WSG Swarovski Tirol & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 14.7% 0.90× 7.54
WSG Swarovski Tirol & both teams score 12.5% 13.3% 16.9% 0.79× 7.54
Draw & not both score 9.1% 8.3% 7.4% 1.13× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried & over 1.5 35.1% 34.9% 34.7% 1.01× 2.87
SV Josko Ried & under 3.5 32.1% 30.7% 30.4% 1.01× 3.25
SV Josko Ried & over 2.5 26.6% 26.1% 27.6% 0.95× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 22.8% 21.6% 19.7% 1.10× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 22.8% 21.6% 19.7% 1.10× 4.63
WSG Swarovski Tirol & under 3.5 19.7% 18.0% 22.1% 0.81× 5.56
SV Josko Ried & under 2.5 18.7% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.6% 18.0% 18.3% 0.98× 5.56
WSG Swarovski Tirol & over 1.5 19.1% 18.0% 25.4% 0.71× 5.56
WSG Swarovski Tirol & over 2.5 14.6% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.79
SV Josko Ried & over 3.5 13.2% 12.8% 13.3% 0.97× 7.79
WSG Swarovski Tirol & under 2.5 11.5% 12.8% 11.6% 1.10× 7.79
SV Josko Ried & under 1.5 10.2% 12.8% 9.0% 1.42× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 9.1% 7.9% 7.4% 1.08× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.9% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.9% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
WSG Swarovski Tirol & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 6.2% 1.28× 12.63
WSG Swarovski Tirol & over 3.5 6.4% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (1UP) 60.3% 62.7% — — 1.60
WSG Swarovski Tirol (1UP) 43.5% 38.7% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (2UP) 45.2% 49.8% — — 2.01
WSG Swarovski Tirol (2UP) 26.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 37.5% 36.2% — — 2.76
SV Josko Ried to win 2nd half 37.1% 36.2% — — 2.76
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win 2nd half 25.3% 26.0% — — 3.85
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.3% 86.8% — — 1.15
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 52.7% — — 1.90
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 47.3% — — 2.11
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.7% 13.2% — — 7.55
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried under 1.5 in 2nd half 79.2% 75.2% — — 1.33
SV Josko Ried over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.1% 58.3% — — 1.72
SV Josko Ried under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.9% 41.7% — — 2.40
SV Josko Ried over 1.5 in 2nd half 20.8% 24.8% — — 4.04
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (+2.5) 90.9% 92.1% 90.7% 1.02× 1.09
WSG Swarovski Tirol (+1.5) 76.8% 78.5% 77.0% 1.02× 1.27
SV Josko Ried (+0.5) 73.9% 73.7% 68.6% 1.07× 1.36
WSG Swarovski Tirol (+0.5) 54.8% 52.4% 56.5% 0.93× 1.91
SV Josko Ried (-0.5) 45.2% 47.6% 43.5% 1.09× 2.10
WSG Swarovski Tirol (-0.5) 26.1% 26.3% 31.4% 0.84× 3.80
SV Josko Ried (-1.5) 23.2% 21.5% 23.0% 0.93× 4.65
SV Josko Ried (-2.5) 9.1% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to concede 77.3% 78.8% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
WSG Swarovski Tirol clean sheet 22.7% 21.2% 21.9% 0.97× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol clean sheet in 1st half 52.9% 50.6% — — 1.98
WSG Swarovski Tirol to concede in 1st half 47.1% 49.4% — — 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to concede in 2nd half 57.1% 57.6% — — 1.74
WSG Swarovski Tirol clean sheet in 2nd half 42.9% 42.4% — — 2.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 6.5 corners 83.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 5.5 corners 74.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 2.5 corners 72.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 4.5 corners 60.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 3.5 corners 55.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 3.5 corners 44.6% 42.8% — — 2.33
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 4.5 corners 39.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 2.5 corners 27.5% 28.4% — — 3.52
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 5.5 corners 25.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 6.5 corners 16.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 3.5 goals 97.6% 97.5% 96.9% 1.01× 1.03
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 2.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 86.9% 1.06× 1.08
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 1.5 goals 70.9% 71.8% 64.8% 1.11× 1.39
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 0.5 goals 65.8% 68.0% 70.3% 0.97× 1.47
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 0.5 goals 34.2% 32.0% 29.7% 1.08× 3.12
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 1.5 goals 29.1% 28.2% 35.2% 0.80× 3.55
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 2.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 13.1% 0.59× 13.04
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 3.5 goals 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 0.81× 39.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 93.8% — — 1.07
WSG Swarovski Tirol under 0.5 in 1st half 65.1% 69.7% — — 1.43
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 0.5 in 1st half 34.9% 30.3% — — 3.31
WSG Swarovski Tirol over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 6.2% — — 16.18
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol scores equally in both 44.3% 43.6% — — 2.30
WSG Swarovski Tirol scores more in 2nd half 34.9% 33.3% — — 3.00
WSG Swarovski Tirol scores more in 1st half 20.8% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (away no bet) 61.2% 61.9% 63.1% 0.98× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 38.8% 38.1% 36.9% 1.03× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol even goals 55.8% 56.9% 53.4% 1.06× 1.76
WSG Swarovski Tirol odd goals 44.2% 43.1% 46.6% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.3% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.7% 12.1% — — 8.24
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.8% 57.4% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.2% 42.6% — — 2.35
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.6% 50.9% — — 1.96
SV Josko Ried to score 2+ in a row 36.1% 36.5% — — 2.74
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score 2+ in a row 21.7% 19.6% — — 5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.9% 16.2% — — 6.16
SV Josko Ried to score 3+ in a row 12.7% 12.0% — — 8.31
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score 3+ in a row 5.4% 5.5% — — 18.24
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried corners (+3.5) 90.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
SV Josko Ried corners (+2.5) 84.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
SV Josko Ried corners (+1.5) 76.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (+3.5) 74.2% 70.7% — — 1.41
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (+2.5) 64.9% 61.8% — — 1.62
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (+1.5) 54.3% 52.4% — — 1.91
SV Josko Ried corners (-1.5) 45.7% 47.6% — — 2.10
SV Josko Ried corners (-2.5) 35.1% 38.2% — — 2.62
SV Josko Ried corners (-3.5) 25.8% 29.3% — — 3.42
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (-1.5) 23.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (-2.5) 15.7% 20.2% — — 4.95
WSG Swarovski Tirol corners (-3.5) 10.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 43.3% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.3% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 27.4% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 72.6% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.4% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 10.5 corners 63.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 56.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 54.0% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 46.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 8.5 corners 43.3% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 10.5 corners 36.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 32.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.4% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 20.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.7% 11.5% 12.6% 0.91× 8.71
1-0 10.2% 11.5% 9.0% 1.27× 8.72
0-0 9.1% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.51
2-0 8.5% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.51
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 10.5% 0.71× 13.51
0-1 7.0% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.51
1-2 6.6% 7.4% 7.8% 0.94× 13.51
2-2 4.9% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.29
0-2 4.5% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.29
0-3 1.6% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.61× 58.32
1-3 2.4% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.80× 58.32
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.61× 58.32
3-0 4.2% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-1 4.5% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.29
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.31
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.31
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.32
4-0 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.81× 58.31
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.31
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.31
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 7.22× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.22× 58.32
Any other score 2.3% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (2nd half DNB) 59.4% 59.9% — — 1.67
WSG Swarovski Tirol (2nd half DNB) 40.6% 40.1% — — 2.50
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried leading at HT (DNB) 62.4% 65.4% — — 1.53
WSG Swarovski Tirol leading at HT (DNB) 37.6% 34.6% — — 2.89
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or draw (1X) 73.9% 72.1% 68.6% 1.05× 1.39
SV Josko Ried or WSG Swarovski Tirol (12) 71.3% 72.1% 74.6% 0.97× 1.39
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw (X2) 54.8% 52.7% 56.5% 0.93× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or draw at HT 79.3% 79.5% — — 1.26
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw at HT 65.6% 67.0% — — 1.49
SV Josko Ried or WSG Swarovski Tirol at HT 55.1% 57.6% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or draw (1UP) 73.9% 79.6% — — 1.26
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw (1UP) 54.8% 58.9% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried or draw in 2nd half 74.7% 74.0% — — 1.35
WSG Swarovski Tirol or draw in 2nd half 62.9% 63.8% — — 1.57
SV Josko Ried or WSG Swarovski Tirol in 2nd half 62.5% 63.8% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.1% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 35.9% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (DNB) 63.4% 62.7% 58.1% 1.08× 1.60
WSG Swarovski Tirol (DNB) 36.6% 37.3% 41.9% 0.89× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to score first 52.7% 53.4% — — 1.87
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score first 38.2% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 9.1% 7.5% — — 13.35
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.2% 51.3% 55.8% 0.92× 1.95
Not both teams to score 47.8% 48.7% 44.2% 1.10× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 39.2% 38.5% 34.7% 1.11× 2.60
Both score & over 2.5 38.5% 38.5% 43.5% 0.88× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 13.7% 12.4% 12.6% 0.98× 8.08
Not both score & over 2.5 8.5% 8.3% 9.7% 0.85× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.3% 85.6% 86.9% 0.98× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.7% 14.4% 13.1% 1.10× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.4% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.6% 26.3% — — 3.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.2% 65.6% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 23.1% 21.0% — — 4.77
Both score 1st half only 12.2% 10.8% — — 9.28
Both score in both halves 4.5% 5.0% — — 20.19
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.3% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.7% 16.8% — — 5.94
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.5% 52.9% — — 1.89
A half without a goal 48.5% 47.1% — — 2.12
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.3% 47.2% 49.9% 0.95× 2.12
0-1 goals 26.2% 26.6% 22.1% 1.20× 3.76
4-6 goals 23.9% 22.9% 26.6% 0.86× 4.36
7+ goals 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 0.97× 54.37
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 35.4% 1.02× 2.78
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score exactly 0 34.2% 33.8% 29.7% 1.14× 2.96
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score exactly 2 19.7% 19.6% 22.3% 0.88× 5.11
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score 3+ 9.4% 8.6% 13.1% 0.66× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to score exactly 1 33.7% 32.6% 34.9% 0.93× 3.07
SV Josko Ried to score exactly 2 25.0% 23.3% 25.4% 0.92× 4.29
SV Josko Ried to score exactly 0 22.7% 23.3% 21.9% 1.07× 4.29
SV Josko Ried to score 3+ 18.7% 18.8% 18.3% 1.03× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.9% 42.4% — — 2.36
SV Josko Ried leading at HT 34.4% 33.0% — — 3.03
WSG Swarovski Tirol leading at HT 20.7% 20.5% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried -1: 2 54.8% 52.2% — — 1.92
SV Josko Ried -1: 1 23.2% 23.5% — — 4.25
SV Josko Ried -1: X 22.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:1) 54.8% 51.4% 56.5% 0.91× 1.95
SV Josko Ried (0:1) 23.2% 24.2% 23.0% 1.05× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 22.1% 24.2% 20.7% 1.17× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:2) 76.8% 79.4% 77.0% 1.03× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.1% 11.0% 14.0% 0.78× 9.09
SV Josko Ried (0:2) 9.1% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 13.03
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:3) 90.9% 92.7% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.2% 5.8% 6.2% 0.94× 17.25
SV Josko Ried (0:3) 2.9% 2.4% 3.3% 0.71× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol (0:4) 97.1% 98.1% 96.7% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.73× 81.93
SV Josko Ried (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 0.64× 82.08
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (1:0) 73.9% 72.4% 68.6% 1.06× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.6% 17.1% 16.4% 1.04× 5.85
WSG Swarovski Tirol (1:0) 10.5% 12.7% 15.2% 0.83× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried (2:0) 89.5% 88.5% 84.8% 1.04× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.4% 6.4% 10.2% 0.62× 15.67
WSG Swarovski Tirol (2:0) 3.1% 2.3% 5.2% 0.44× 43.70
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.8% 48.7% — — 2.06
Halves equal 27.9% 26.2% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to concede 65.8% 66.7% 70.3% 0.95× 1.50
SV Josko Ried clean sheet 34.2% 33.3% 29.7% 1.12× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried clean sheet in 1st half 65.1% 70.1% — — 1.43
SV Josko Ried to concede in 1st half 34.9% 29.9% — — 3.34
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried clean sheet in 2nd half 52.5% 52.8% — — 1.89
SV Josko Ried to concede in 2nd half 47.5% 47.2% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried over 2.5 corners 84.0% 81.0% — — 1.24
SV Josko Ried over 3.5 corners 71.1% 71.9% — — 1.39
SV Josko Ried under 6.5 corners 69.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
SV Josko Ried under 5.5 corners 57.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
SV Josko Ried over 4.5 corners 56.6% 57.5% — — 1.74
SV Josko Ried under 4.5 corners 43.4% 42.5% — — 2.35
SV Josko Ried over 5.5 corners 42.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
SV Josko Ried over 6.5 corners 30.5% 33.3% — — 3.01
SV Josko Ried under 3.5 corners 28.9% 28.1% — — 3.55
SV Josko Ried under 2.5 corners 16.0% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried under 3.5 goals 93.7% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
SV Josko Ried under 2.5 goals 81.3% 82.2% 81.7% 1.01× 1.22
SV Josko Ried over 0.5 goals 77.3% 77.7% 78.1% 0.99× 1.29
SV Josko Ried under 1.5 goals 56.4% 58.6% 56.5% 1.04× 1.71
SV Josko Ried over 1.5 goals 43.6% 41.4% 43.5% 0.95× 2.42
SV Josko Ried under 0.5 goals 22.7% 22.3% 21.9% 1.02× 4.49
SV Josko Ried over 2.5 goals 18.7% 17.8% 18.3% 0.97× 5.62
SV Josko Ried over 3.5 goals 6.3% 7.8% 7.6% 1.02× 12.88
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried under 1.5 in 1st half 86.6% 90.1% — — 1.11
SV Josko Ried under 0.5 in 1st half 52.9% 50.4% — — 1.99
SV Josko Ried over 0.5 in 1st half 47.1% 49.6% — — 2.01
SV Josko Ried over 1.5 in 1st half 13.4% 9.9% — — 10.11
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried scores more in 2nd half 37.8% 37.8% — — 2.64
SV Josko Ried scores equally in both 36.7% 37.8% — — 2.65
SV Josko Ried scores more in 1st half 25.6% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.4% 51.4% 44.8% 1.15× 1.95
WSG Swarovski Tirol (home no bet) 47.6% 48.6% 55.2% 0.88× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried even goals 52.6% 50.7% 52.0% 0.98× 1.97
SV Josko Ried odd goals 47.4% 49.3% 48.0% 1.03× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.6% 33.3% — — 3.00
HT 1-0 21.7% 24.3% — — 4.12
HT 0-1 14.5% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 9.7% 6.9% — — 14.43
HT 2-0 7.0% 6.9% — — 14.47
Any other HT score 3.6% 2.4% — — 41.97
HT 0-2 3.2% 2.4% — — 42.00
HT 2-1 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.01
HT 1-2 2.0% 2.4% — — 42.08
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.17
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried at HT / SV Josko Ried at FT 27.0% 27.2% — — 3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.3% 16.8% — — 5.95
Draw at HT / SV Josko Ried at FT 16.0% 16.8% — — 5.96
WSG Swarovski Tirol at HT / WSG Swarovski Tirol at FT 13.6% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / WSG Swarovski Tirol at FT 10.7% 12.6% — — 7.92
SV Josko Ried at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.1% — — 16.49
WSG Swarovski Tirol at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.79
WSG Swarovski Tirol at HT / SV Josko Ried at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.89
SV Josko Ried at HT / WSG Swarovski Tirol at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried to score last 52.8% 52.1% — — 1.92
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score last 38.1% 38.8% — — 2.58
No goal scored 9.1% 7.5% — — 13.35
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.9% 92.6% — — 1.08
SV Josko Ried to lead by 1 at any time 60.3% 61.2% — — 1.64
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.1% 39.3% — — 2.55
WSG Swarovski Tirol to lead by 1 at any time 43.5% 39.3% — — 2.55
SV Josko Ried to lead by 2 at any time 29.0% 25.4% — — 3.94
WSG Swarovski Tirol to lead by 2 at any time 15.2% 14.8% — — 6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.2% 14.8% — — 6.74
SV Josko Ried to lead by 3 at any time 11.0% 10.5% — — 9.54
WSG Swarovski Tirol to lead by 3 at any time 4.2% 1.6% — — 60.93
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried most corners 56.7% 55.6% — — 1.80
WSG Swarovski Tirol most corners 32.6% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.7% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.3% 87.4% 86.2% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.2% 78.7% 79.3% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 72.2% 72.4% 76.2% 0.95× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.2% 68.8% 71.5% 0.96× 1.45
1-3 goals 65.4% 68.8% 64.6% 1.07× 1.45
2-4 goals 62.1% 63.3% 64.6% 0.98× 1.58
2-3 goals 48.3% 48.5% 49.9% 0.97× 2.06
3-6 goals 45.5% 48.5% 51.3% 0.94× 2.06
1-2 goals 43.8% 43.6% 39.9% 1.09× 2.29
3-5 goals 42.5% 43.6% 46.6% 0.94× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.4% 39.2% 39.7% 0.99× 2.55
4-6 goals 23.9% 24.5% 26.6% 0.92× 4.09
4-5 goals 20.9% 24.5% 21.9% 1.12× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.1% 14.8% 11.9% 1.25× 6.76
7+ goals 1.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.34× 39.18
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
SV Josko Ried never behind 47.4% 56.6% — — 1.77
WSG Swarovski Tirol never behind 30.5% 36.1% — — 2.77
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.0% 50.9% 47.7% 1.07× 1.96
Even number of goals 53.0% 49.1% 52.3% 0.94× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.4% 57.6% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 43.6% 42.4% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.5% 52.0% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.5% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.4% 95.4% 93.3% 1.02× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 90.9% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.3% 87.6% 86.5% 1.01× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 74.5% 72.5% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 73.8% 72.5% 77.9% 0.93× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.9% 52.5% 47.0% 1.12× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 47.1% 47.5% 53.0% 0.90× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 26.2% 27.5% 22.1% 1.25× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 25.5% 27.5% 28.3% 0.97× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 11.7% 12.4% 13.5% 0.92× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 9.1% 7.7% 7.4% 1.05× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 4.6% 4.6% 6.7% 0.69× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.4% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.1% 97.2% 92.9% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.5% 86.7% 84.1% 1.03× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 67.5% 67.5% 62.5% 1.08× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 64.2% 61.9% 70.6% 0.88× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 35.8% 38.1% 29.4% 1.29× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 32.5% 32.5% 37.5% 0.87× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.5% 13.3% 15.9% 0.84× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.9% 2.8% 7.1% 0.39× 35.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.41× 35.62
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.7% 92.5% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.9% 71.4% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.4% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.6% 31.5% — — 3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.1% 28.6% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.3% 7.5% — — 13.39
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.1% 82.9% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.0% 79.7% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.7% 55.1% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.3% 44.9% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.0% 20.3% — — 4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.9% 17.1% — — 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol not to score in both halves 83.4% 84.2% — — 1.19
SV Josko Ried not to score in both halves 73.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
SV Josko Ried to score in both halves 26.9% 26.1% — — 3.84
WSG Swarovski Tirol to score in both halves 16.6% 15.8% — — 6.34
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.2% 53.8% 55.8% 0.96× 1.86
Only SV Josko Ried scores 25.1% 26.0% 22.6% 1.15× 3.85
Only WSG Swarovski Tirol scores 13.6% 11.0% 14.7% 0.75× 9.06
Neither team scores 9.1% 7.1% 7.4% 0.97× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.7% 24.9% 25.2% 0.99× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 21.6% 22.6% 24.9% 0.91× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 17.1% 17.5% 15.0% 1.17× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 13.8% 12.1% 15.0% 0.81× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 9.1% 7.6% 7.4% 1.03× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 7.1% 7.6% 7.1% 1.07× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.6% 4.5% 6.7% 0.67× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 34.6% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 19.8% 15.7% — — 6.38
3+ goals in 1st half 9.3% 7.5% — — 13.39
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.3% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 32.7% 33.7% — — 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 23.0% 22.7% — — 4.41
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol not to win both halves 94.6% 94.2% — — 1.06
SV Josko Ried not to win both halves 87.0% 87.9% — — 1.14
SV Josko Ried to win both halves 13.0% 12.1% — — 8.30
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win both halves 5.4% 5.8% — — 17.20
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win neither half 59.4% 59.2% — — 1.69
SV Josko Ried to win either half 58.5% 59.2% — — 1.69
SV Josko Ried to win neither half 41.5% 40.8% — — 2.45
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win either half 40.6% 40.8% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
WSG Swarovski Tirol not to win to nil 86.4% 88.1% 85.3% 1.03× 1.14
SV Josko Ried not to win to nil 74.9% 75.4% 77.4% 0.97× 1.33
SV Josko Ried to win to nil 25.1% 24.6% 22.6% 1.09× 4.06
WSG Swarovski Tirol to win to nil 13.6% 11.9% 14.7% 0.81× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.7% 27.9% 25.4% 1.10× 3.59
SV Josko Ried by 1 22.1% 24.1% 20.7% 1.17× 4.15
WSG Swarovski Tirol by 1 15.6% 17.0% 16.4% 1.04× 5.87
SV Josko Ried by 2 14.1% 11.8% 14.0% 0.84× 8.51
SV Josko Ried by 3+ 9.1% 7.2% 9.3% 0.78× 13.90
WSG Swarovski Tirol by 2 7.4% 7.2% 10.2% 0.70× 13.91
WSG Swarovski Tirol by 3+ 3.1% 2.7% 5.2% 0.52× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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