Sweden v Poland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 28 September 2026 · EUR-Nations League · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.8%
- 0-1 9.2%
- 1-2 9.0%
- 1-0 7.7%
- 2-1 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | Under 2.5 | 46.6% |
| BTTS yes | 56.6% | BTTS no | 43.4% |
| Sweden 1+ | 72.2% | Sweden 2+ | 36.6% |
| Poland 1+ | 78.4% | Poland 2+ | 45.3% |
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.53. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Poland have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Sweden have allowed 1.35.
- Away from home Poland average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Sweden have only 0 matches on record.
- Poland have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Poland have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 31.8% for Sweden and 25.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.28 for Sweden and 1.53 for Poland.
Why Sweden
Sweden have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Poland have allowed 1.35. At home Sweden average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.0%.
Why Poland can win
Poland have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Sweden have allowed 1.35. Away from home Poland average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Sweden, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Poland, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Sweden: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Poland: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
Poland are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.28–1.53 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.