Talleres (Córdoba) v Defensa y Justicia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 October 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627
ARG-Liga Profesional
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.1%
- 1-0 11.4%
- 0-0 8.8%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 0-1 8.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | Under 2.5 | 55.2% |
| BTTS yes | 50.0% | BTTS no | 50.0% |
| Talleres (Córdoba) 1+ | 75.0% | Talleres (Córdoba) 2+ | 40.3% |
| Defensa y Justicia 1+ | 66.2% | Defensa y Justicia 2+ | 29.5% |
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Talleres (Córdoba).
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Talleres (Córdoba) have an estimated 43.0% win probability, against 28.5% for Defensa y Justicia and 28.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for Talleres (Córdoba) and 1.08 for Defensa y Justicia.
Why Talleres (Córdoba)
Nothing in the data singles out Talleres (Córdoba).
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.5%. Draws run at 31% in this competition.
Why Defensa y Justicia can win
Defensa y Justicia carry the stronger rating, 1505 Elo against 1452. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Talleres (Córdoba), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Defensa y Justicia, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Talleres (Córdoba): 53% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 21.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Defensa y Justicia: 50% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Talleres (Córdoba) are the model's most likely outcome at 43.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.38–1.10 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.