Tigre v Sarmiento (Junín) — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Tigre

20:00 UTC

Sarmiento (Junín)

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 297h before kick-off

Tigre win

44.2%

model 44.9%

Draw

27.9%

model 29.9%

Sarmiento (Junín) win

27.8%

model 25.3%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 14.1%
1-1 13.6%
0-0 12.1%
0-1 9.6%
2-0 9.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	36.8%	Under 2.5	63.2%
BTTS yes	43.0%	BTTS no	57.0%
Tigre 1+	72.1%	Tigre 2+	36.5%
Sarmiento (Junín) 1+	58.8%	Sarmiento (Junín) 2+	22.3%

Expected goals 1.28 – 0.89. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

2-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 60%

62.1% fair odds 1.61

moderate signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sarmiento (Junín) not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Tigre carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1493.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Tigre have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 27.8% for Sarmiento (Junín). Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.28 for Tigre and 0.89 for Sarmiento (Junín).

Why Tigre

Tigre carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1493. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. A combined 2.16 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Sarmiento (Junín) can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Tigre, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sarmiento (Junín), so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Tigre: 45% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sarmiento (Junín): 36% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Tigre are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.1%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	453025	1.28–0.89	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	492922	1.35–0.80	1-0 15%	36%	41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to win	49.3%	47.4%	41.8%	1.13×	2.11
Draw	29.2%	27.9%	30.7%	0.91×	3.58
Sarmiento (Junín) to win	21.5%	24.5%	27.6%	0.89×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre & not both score	32.8%	29.6%	27.7%	1.07×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	17.0%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.57
Tigre & both teams score	16.5%	18.0%	14.3%	1.26×	5.57
Sarmiento (Junín) & not both score	13.7%	13.3%	17.1%	0.78×	7.54
Draw & not both score	12.2%	13.3%	14.8%	0.89×	7.54
Sarmiento (Junín) & both teams score	7.9%	8.3%	10.6%	0.79×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre & under 3.5	39.1%	34.9%	34.8%	1.00×	2.87
Tigre & over 1.5	34.1%	30.8%	27.8%	1.11×	3.25
Tigre & under 2.5	25.8%	26.1%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	25.3%	26.1%	28.2%	0.93×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.3%	26.1%	28.2%	0.93×	3.84
Tigre & over 2.5	23.5%	21.6%	18.4%	1.18×	4.63
Sarmiento (Junín) & under 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	23.5%	0.77×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.0%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.56
Tigre & under 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	14.1%	1.27×	5.56
Sarmiento (Junín) & over 1.5	12.8%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Sarmiento (Junín) & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	14.6%	0.88×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	12.2%	12.8%	14.8%	0.87×	7.79
Tigre & over 3.5	10.2%	12.8%	7.2%	1.79×	7.79
Sarmiento (Junín) & under 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.63
Sarmiento (Junín) & over 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	13.1%	0.60×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	3.8%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.82
Sarmiento (Junín) & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	4.2%	1.14×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (1UP)	61.1%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Sarmiento (Junín) (1UP)	36.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (2UP)	49.3%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Sarmiento (Junín) (2UP)	21.5%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Tigre to win 2nd half	38.8%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Sarmiento (Junín) to win 2nd half	20.6%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.6%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Sarmiento (Junín) under 0.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Sarmiento (Junín) over 0.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
Sarmiento (Junín) over 1.5 in 2nd half	8.4%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Tigre over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Tigre under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Tigre over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.6%	—	—	5.67

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (+2.5)	91.1%	92.1%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
Tigre (+0.5)	78.5%	78.5%	72.4%	1.08×	1.27
Sarmiento (Junín) (+1.5)	76.1%	78.5%	82.3%	0.95×	1.27
Sarmiento (Junín) (+0.5)	50.7%	52.4%	58.2%	0.90×	1.91
Tigre (-0.5)	49.3%	47.6%	41.8%	1.14×	2.10
Tigre (-1.5)	23.9%	21.5%	17.7%	1.22×	4.65
Sarmiento (Junín) (-0.5)	21.5%	21.5%	27.6%	0.78×	4.65
Tigre (-2.5)	8.9%	7.9%	5.0%	1.57×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) to concede	74.1%	76.7%	68.2%	1.12×	1.30
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet	25.9%	23.3%	31.8%	0.73×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet in 1st half	55.9%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Sarmiento (Junín) to concede in 1st half	44.1%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) to concede in 2nd half	53.7%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet in 2nd half	46.3%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) under 6.5 corners	89.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sarmiento (Junín) under 5.5 corners	80.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Sarmiento (Junín) under 4.5 corners	68.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sarmiento (Junín) over 2.5 corners	67.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sarmiento (Junín) under 3.5 corners	51.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Sarmiento (Junín) over 3.5 corners	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sarmiento (Junín) under 2.5 corners	32.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sarmiento (Junín) over 4.5 corners	31.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sarmiento (Junín) over 5.5 corners	19.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Sarmiento (Junín) over 6.5 corners	11.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) under 3.5 goals	99.1%	97.5%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Sarmiento (Junín) under 2.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Sarmiento (Junín) under 1.5 goals	81.0%	81.5%	78.2%	1.04×	1.23
Sarmiento (Junín) over 0.5 goals	55.0%	53.6%	57.6%	0.93×	1.87
Sarmiento (Junín) under 0.5 goals	45.0%	46.4%	42.4%	1.09×	2.15
Sarmiento (Junín) over 1.5 goals	19.0%	18.5%	21.8%	0.85×	5.40
Sarmiento (Junín) over 2.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	6.6%	0.38×	39.73
Sarmiento (Junín) over 3.5 goals	0.9%	2.5%	1.1%	2.20×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) under 1.5 in 1st half	95.9%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Sarmiento (Junín) under 0.5 in 1st half	72.7%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Sarmiento (Junín) over 0.5 in 1st half	27.3%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
Sarmiento (Junín) over 1.5 in 1st half	4.1%	4.0%	—	—	25.23

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) scores equally in both	52.2%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Sarmiento (Junín) scores more in 2nd half	29.6%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Sarmiento (Junín) scores more in 1st half	18.2%	18.1%	—	—	5.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (away no bet)	62.8%	61.9%	57.7%	1.07×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	37.2%	38.1%	42.3%	0.90×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) even goals	60.1%	59.1%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
Sarmiento (Junín) odd goals	39.9%	40.9%	41.6%	0.98×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	91.9%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.1%	8.5%	—	—	11.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	50.5%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals	49.5%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	44.8%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
Tigre to score 2+ in a row	33.7%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Sarmiento (Junín) to score 2+ in a row	14.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Tigre to score 3+ in a row	11.5%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Sarmiento (Junín) to score 3+ in a row	2.7%	2.5%	—	—	39.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre corners (+3.5)	94.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Tigre corners (+2.5)	89.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Tigre corners (+1.5)	83.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (+3.5)	67.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (+2.5)	57.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Tigre corners (-1.5)	54.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (+1.5)	45.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Tigre corners (-2.5)	43.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Tigre corners (-3.5)	32.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (-1.5)	16.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (-2.5)	10.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Sarmiento (Junín) corners (-3.5)	6.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	26.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	54.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	45.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	35.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	32.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	26.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.2%	13.8%	14.1%	0.98×	7.24
1-1	13.1%	11.5%	13.5%	0.85×	8.71
0-0	12.2%	11.5%	14.8%	0.77×	8.71
2-0	10.6%	11.5%	9.6%	1.20×	8.72
0-1	8.7%	7.4%	10.3%	0.72×	13.51
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
1-2	5.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
3-0	4.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.29
0-2	3.7%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.84×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	3.01×	58.32
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
2-2	3.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
3-1	3.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.15×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
Any other score	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (2nd half DNB)	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sarmiento (Junín) (2nd half DNB)	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre leading at HT (DNB)	67.7%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Sarmiento (Junín) leading at HT (DNB)	32.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre or draw (1X)	78.5%	75.5%	72.4%	1.04×	1.32
Tigre or Sarmiento (Junín) (12)	70.8%	72.1%	69.3%	1.04×	1.39
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw (X2)	50.7%	52.6%	58.2%	0.90×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre or draw at HT	83.4%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw at HT	65.3%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Tigre or Sarmiento (Junín) at HT	51.3%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre or draw (1UP)	78.5%	83.7%	—	—	1.20
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw (1UP)	50.7%	58.5%	—	—	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre or draw in 2nd half	79.4%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Sarmiento (Junín) or draw in 2nd half	61.2%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Tigre or Sarmiento (Junín) in 2nd half	59.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	69.0%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Neither half drawn	31.0%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (DNB)	69.6%	67.5%	60.3%	1.12×	1.48
Sarmiento (Junín) (DNB)	30.4%	32.5%	39.7%	0.82×	3.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to score first	55.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sarmiento (Junín) to score first	32.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
No goal scored	12.2%	9.8%	—	—	10.21

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	58.7%	55.0%	59.4%	0.93×	1.82
Both teams to score	41.3%	45.0%	40.6%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	50.5%	47.2%	52.8%	0.89×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	28.2%	33.3%	27.3%	1.22×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	12.4%	13.5%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.3%	6.7%	1.23×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.5%	89.0%	94.1%	0.95×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.5%	11.0%	5.9%	1.85×	9.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.4%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.6%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	69.7%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Both score 2nd half only	18.2%	15.0%	—	—	6.66
Both score 1st half only	9.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.62
Both score in both halves	2.5%	4.8%	—	—	20.67

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.9%	85.0%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	12.1%	15.0%	—	—	6.67

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	57.4%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	42.6%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.2%	47.3%	1.00×	2.12
0-1 goals	36.1%	35.0%	39.0%	0.90×	2.86
4-6 goals	16.4%	20.2%	13.5%	1.50×	4.95
7+ goals	0.7%	1.8%	0.5%	4.02×	54.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) to score exactly 0	45.0%	42.9%	42.4%	1.01×	2.33
Sarmiento (Junín) to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.9%	35.9%	1.00×	2.79
Sarmiento (Junín) to score exactly 2	14.3%	12.9%	15.3%	0.84×	7.75
Sarmiento (Junín) to score 3+	4.7%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to score exactly 1	35.0%	32.6%	36.5%	0.89×	3.07
Tigre to score exactly 0	25.9%	26.6%	31.8%	0.83×	3.77
Tigre to score exactly 2	23.6%	23.3%	21.8%	1.07×	4.29
Tigre to score 3+	15.5%	18.8%	10.1%	1.85×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.7%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Tigre leading at HT	34.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Sarmiento (Junín) leading at HT	16.6%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre -1: 2	50.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Tigre -1: X	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Tigre -1: 1	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:1)	50.7%	51.3%	58.2%	0.88×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	25.4%	27.0%	24.3%	1.11×	3.70
Tigre (0:1)	23.9%	24.2%	17.7%	1.37×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:2)	76.1%	79.4%	82.3%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	15.0%	15.2%	12.8%	1.19×	6.56
Tigre (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	5.0%	1.53×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:3)	91.1%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.2%	5.8%	3.4%	1.69×	17.26
Tigre (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	1.7%	1.39×	42.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) (0:4)	97.3%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	1.3%	0.98×	81.75
Tigre (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	0.6%	2.14×	81.90

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (1:0)	78.5%	78.6%	72.4%	1.09×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.7%	12.7%	18.6%	0.68×	7.86
Sarmiento (Junín) (1:0)	6.8%	6.9%	9.1%	0.76×	14.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (2:0)	93.2%	94.0%	90.9%	1.03×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.2%	6.4%	6.3%	1.02×	15.68
Sarmiento (Junín) (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.83

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Halves equal	29.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to concede	55.0%	53.2%	57.6%	0.92×	1.88
Tigre clean sheet	45.0%	46.8%	42.4%	1.10×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre clean sheet in 1st half	72.7%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Tigre to concede in 1st half	27.3%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre clean sheet in 2nd half	62.0%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Tigre to concede in 2nd half	38.0%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre over 2.5 corners	87.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Tigre over 3.5 corners	75.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Tigre under 6.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Tigre over 4.5 corners	62.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Tigre under 5.5 corners	52.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Tigre over 5.5 corners	48.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Tigre under 4.5 corners	37.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Tigre over 6.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Tigre under 3.5 corners	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Tigre under 2.5 corners	12.6%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre under 3.5 goals	95.2%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Tigre under 2.5 goals	84.5%	82.2%	89.9%	0.92×	1.22
Tigre over 0.5 goals	74.1%	74.2%	68.2%	1.09×	1.35
Tigre under 1.5 goals	60.9%	63.6%	68.2%	0.93×	1.57
Tigre over 1.5 goals	39.1%	36.4%	31.8%	1.14×	2.75
Tigre under 0.5 goals	25.9%	25.8%	31.8%	0.81×	3.88
Tigre over 2.5 goals	15.5%	17.8%	10.1%	1.75×	5.62
Tigre over 3.5 goals	4.8%	3.6%	2.9%	1.28×	27.47

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Tigre under 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Tigre over 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Tigre over 1.5 in 1st half	11.6%	9.9%	—	—	10.13

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre scores equally in both	38.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Tigre scores more in 2nd half	36.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Tigre scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.5%	56.4%	52.6%	1.07×	1.77
Sarmiento (Junín) (home no bet)	42.5%	43.6%	47.4%	0.92×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre even goals	53.3%	50.8%	55.6%	0.91×	1.97
Tigre odd goals	46.7%	49.2%	44.4%	1.11×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.7%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
HT 1-0	23.5%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	12.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	7.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
HT 2-0	6.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
Any other HT score	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 0-2	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 2-1	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.34
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.40

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre at HT / Tigre at FT	28.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / Tigre at FT	18.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Sarmiento (Junín) at HT / Sarmiento (Junín) at FT	10.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Sarmiento (Junín) at FT	9.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.42
Tigre at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Sarmiento (Junín) at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Sarmiento (Junín) at HT / Tigre at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.97
Tigre at HT / Sarmiento (Junín) at FT	1.2%	3.4%	—	—	28.99

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to score last	55.3%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Sarmiento (Junín) to score last	32.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
No goal scored	12.2%	9.2%	—	—	10.88

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	87.8%	91.3%	—	—	1.10
Tigre to lead by 1 at any time	61.1%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.3%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Sarmiento (Junín) to lead by 1 at any time	36.0%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Tigre to lead by 2 at any time	28.4%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.44
Tigre to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.47
Sarmiento (Junín) to lead by 2 at any time	9.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.93
Sarmiento (Junín) to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	1.6%	—	—	63.19

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre most corners	65.5%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Sarmiento (Junín) most corners	24.5%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	10.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.1%	83.4%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.7%	72.3%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
2-6 goals	63.2%	63.3%	60.7%	1.04×	1.58
2-5 goals	61.6%	63.3%	60.1%	1.05×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.2%	59.1%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
1-2 goals	51.4%	53.1%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.4%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.7%	39.2%	33.5%	1.17×	2.55
3-5 goals	34.1%	35.2%	33.0%	1.07×	2.84
3-4 goals	29.7%	30.2%	28.6%	1.06×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.4%	18.8%	13.5%	1.40×	5.31
4-5 goals	14.8%	14.8%	12.9%	1.15×	6.75
5-6 goals	6.1%	8.9%	5.0%	1.77×	11.27
7+ goals	0.7%	2.5%	0.5%	5.59×	39.24

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre never behind	51.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sarmiento (Junín) never behind	26.7%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.2%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.8%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.7%	95.4%	99.0%	0.96×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	85.2%	1.03×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	82.9%	82.3%	86.2%	0.95×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	63.9%	61.7%	61.0%	1.01×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	63.6%	61.7%	66.1%	0.93×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	36.4%	38.3%	33.9%	1.13×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	36.1%	38.3%	39.0%	0.98×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	17.1%	17.7%	13.8%	1.28×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	14.8%	0.84×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	5.4%	1.44×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	2.3%	4.6%	1.0%	4.46×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.6%	97.2%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.5%	92.4%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	78.8%	75.9%	82.7%	0.92×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.2%	51.8%	46.5%	1.12×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	49.8%	48.2%	53.5%	0.90×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.2%	24.1%	17.3%	1.40×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.5%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.4%	2.8%	1.1%	2.62×	35.63
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.8%	0.5%	6.11×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.7%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.1%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	59.3%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.7%	35.2%	—	—	2.84
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.9%	21.9%	—	—	4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.9%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.3%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.7%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.1%	14.6%	—	—	6.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) not to score in both halves	89.6%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Tigre not to score in both halves	76.3%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Tigre to score in both halves	23.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Sarmiento (Junín) to score in both halves	10.4%	14.2%	—	—	7.02

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	41.3%	46.6%	40.6%	1.15×	2.15
Only Tigre scores	32.8%	33.3%	27.7%	1.20×	3.01
Only Sarmiento (Junín) scores	13.7%	11.0%	17.1%	0.65×	9.06
Neither team scores	12.2%	11.0%	14.8%	0.74×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.5%	24.9%	27.3%	0.91×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	23.9%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.3%	17.5%	20.2%	0.87×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	12.2%	12.1%	14.8%	0.82×	8.26
Exactly 4 goals	10.4%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.26
Exactly 5 goals	4.5%	4.5%	4.4%	1.01×	22.33
6 or more goals	2.3%	4.5%	1.0%	4.36×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	40.7%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	16.6%	15.6%	—	—	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.07

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	35.7%	39.6%	—	—	2.52
1 goal in 2nd half	35.4%	39.6%	—	—	2.53
No goals in 2nd half	28.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) not to win both halves	96.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Tigre not to win both halves	86.4%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Tigre to win both halves	13.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Sarmiento (Junín) to win both halves	3.5%	2.8%	—	—	35.81

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) to win neither half	66.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Tigre to win either half	59.9%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Tigre to win neither half	40.1%	40.9%	—	—	2.45
Sarmiento (Junín) to win either half	33.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sarmiento (Junín) not to win to nil	86.3%	88.1%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Tigre not to win to nil	67.2%	69.7%	72.3%	0.96×	1.44
Tigre to win to nil	32.8%	30.3%	27.7%	1.09×	3.30
Sarmiento (Junín) to win to nil	13.7%	11.9%	17.1%	0.70×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.2%	27.9%	30.7%	0.91×	3.59
Tigre by 1	25.4%	27.9%	24.3%	1.15×	3.59
Tigre by 2	15.0%	17.0%	12.8%	1.33×	5.87
Sarmiento (Junín) by 1	14.7%	11.8%	18.6%	0.63×	8.50
Tigre by 3+	8.9%	7.2%	5.0%	1.43×	13.90
Sarmiento (Junín) by 2	5.2%	7.2%	6.3%	1.15×	13.92
Sarmiento (Junín) by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	3.0%	0.91×	36.92