Tigres UANL v Toluca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627
MEX-Liga MX
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.1%
- 1-2 8.5%
- 2-1 8.2%
- 0-1 7.8%
- 1-0 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | Under 2.5 | 47.8% |
| BTTS yes | 57.2% | BTTS no | 42.8% |
| Tigres UANL 1+ | 74.3% | Tigres UANL 2+ | 39.4% |
| Toluca 1+ | 75.5% | Toluca 2+ | 41.1% |
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Toluca carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1551.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Toluca have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.7% for Tigres UANL and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Tigres UANL and 1.41 for Toluca.
Why Tigres UANL
Nothing in the data singles out Tigres UANL.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.36 to 1.41. Draws run at 24% in this competition.
Why Toluca can win
Toluca carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1551. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Tigres UANL, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Toluca, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Tigres UANL: 54% possession, 20.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Toluca: 63% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Toluca are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.34–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.25–1.31 | 1-1 14% | 47% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.