Tokyo Verdy 1969 v Avispa Fukuoka — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627
JPN-J League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 13.1%
- 1-1 13.1%
- 1-0 11.1%
- 0-0 10.6%
- 1-2 8.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 38.6% | Under 2.5 | 61.4% |
| BTTS yes | 44.8% | BTTS no | 55.2% |
| Tokyo Verdy 1969 1+ | 64.0% | Tokyo Verdy 1969 2+ | 27.3% |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1+ | 70.2% | Avispa Fukuoka 2+ | 34.1% |
Expected goals 1.02 – 1.21. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Avispa Fukuoka.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Avispa Fukuoka have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for Tokyo Verdy 1969 and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.02 for Tokyo Verdy 1969 and 1.21 for Avispa Fukuoka.
Why Tokyo Verdy 1969
Nothing in the data singles out Tokyo Verdy 1969.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.3%. A combined 2.23 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.02 to 1.21. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Avispa Fukuoka can win
Nothing in the data singles out Avispa Fukuoka.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Tokyo Verdy 1969, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Avispa Fukuoka, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Tokyo Verdy 1969: 41% possession, 8.6 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Avispa Fukuoka: 43% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Avispa Fukuoka are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 0.91–1.11 | 0-1 15% | 33% | 40% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.