Toluca v Tijuana — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 22 October 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 06:01 UTC

Toluca

01:00 UTC

Tijuana

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,107h before kick-off

Toluca win

59.1%

model 60.8%

Draw

22.5%

model 23.2%

Tijuana win

18.3%

model 16.0%

592318

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
2-0 10.9%
1-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
3-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.2%	Under 2.5	45.8%
BTTS yes	51.9%	BTTS no	48.1%
Toluca 1+	85.7%	Toluca 2+	57.8%
Tijuana 1+	59.5%	Tijuana 2+	22.9%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

36/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Toluca carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1595.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Toluca have an estimated 59.1% win probability, against 22.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Tijuana. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.94 for Toluca and 0.91 for Tijuana.

Why Toluca

Toluca carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1595. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why Tijuana can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Toluca, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tijuana, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Toluca: 63% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tijuana: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Toluca are the model's most likely outcome at 59.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	592416	1.84–0.87	1-1 12%	51%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to win	59.4%	54.1%	47.1%	1.15×	1.85
Draw	24.3%	24.5%	23.8%	1.03×	4.09
Tijuana to win	16.4%	19.3%	29.3%	0.66×	5.18

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca & not both score	34.4%	29.7%	22.7%	1.31×	3.36
Toluca & both teams score	25.0%	21.9%	24.5%	0.89×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	16.7%	17.9%	17.4%	1.03×	5.58
Tijuana & not both score	8.3%	8.4%	11.7%	0.72×	11.93
Tijuana & both teams score	8.1%	8.4%	17.8%	0.47×	11.93
Draw & not both score	7.6%	8.4%	6.6%	1.28×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca & over 1.5	48.0%	45.2%	37.3%	1.21×	2.21
Toluca & under 3.5	39.3%	34.9%	30.9%	1.13×	2.87
Toluca & over 2.5	36.7%	34.9%	30.4%	1.15×	2.87
Toluca & under 2.5	22.6%	21.7%	16.9%	1.28×	4.62
Toluca & over 3.5	20.0%	21.6%	16.3%	1.32×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	17.9%	1.00×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	17.9%	1.00×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Tijuana & under 3.5	12.7%	12.9%	19.7%	0.65×	7.77
Toluca & under 1.5	11.3%	12.9%	9.9%	1.29×	7.77
Tijuana & over 1.5	11.5%	12.9%	23.4%	0.55×	7.77
Tijuana & over 2.5	9.0%	7.9%	19.9%	0.40×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.70
Tijuana & under 2.5	7.4%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70
Tijuana & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.93
Tijuana & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	9.8%	0.49×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (1UP)	71.4%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Tijuana (1UP)	33.5%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (2UP)	59.4%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Tijuana (2UP)	16.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to win 2nd half	47.7%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	34.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Tijuana to win 2nd half	17.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (+0.5)	83.6%	82.4%	70.7%	1.17×	1.21
Tijuana (+2.5)	83.4%	82.4%	90.9%	0.91×	1.21
Tijuana (+1.5)	64.8%	62.9%	77.1%	0.82×	1.59
Toluca (-0.5)	59.4%	57.0%	47.1%	1.21×	1.75
Tijuana (+0.5)	40.6%	43.0%	52.9%	0.81×	2.33
Toluca (-1.5)	35.2%	37.1%	22.9%	1.62×	2.70
Toluca (-2.5)	16.6%	17.6%	9.1%	1.94×	5.69
Tijuana (-0.5)	16.4%	17.6%	29.3%	0.60×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana to concede	84.1%	81.4%	81.9%	0.99×	1.23
Tijuana clean sheet	15.9%	18.6%	18.1%	1.03×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana clean sheet in 1st half	45.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Tijuana to concede in 1st half	54.7%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana under 6.5 corners	93.7%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Tijuana under 5.5 corners	87.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Tijuana under 4.5 corners	78.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Tijuana under 3.5 corners	63.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Tijuana over 2.5 corners	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Tijuana under 2.5 corners	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Tijuana over 3.5 corners	36.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Tijuana over 4.5 corners	21.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Tijuana over 5.5 corners	12.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Tijuana over 6.5 corners	6.3%	10.0%	—	—	10.00

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.6%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Tijuana under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	86.7%	1.07×	1.08
Tijuana under 1.5 goals	78.4%	76.2%	64.8%	1.18×	1.31
Tijuana over 0.5 goals	58.0%	59.5%	70.9%	0.84×	1.68
Tijuana under 0.5 goals	42.0%	40.5%	29.1%	1.39×	2.47
Tijuana over 1.5 goals	21.6%	23.8%	35.2%	0.68×	4.21
Tijuana over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	13.3%	0.57×	13.06
Tijuana over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	4.1%	0.60×	40.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana under 1.5 in 1st half	95.2%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Tijuana under 0.5 in 1st half	70.7%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Tijuana over 0.5 in 1st half	29.3%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Tijuana over 1.5 in 1st half	4.8%	4.4%	—	—	22.65

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (away no bet)	71.0%	68.5%	66.4%	1.03×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	29.0%	31.5%	33.6%	0.94×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana even goals	58.8%	56.9%	54.4%	1.05×	1.76
Tijuana odd goals	41.2%	43.1%	45.6%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.4%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.6%	12.4%	—	—	8.06

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.8%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.9%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Toluca to score 2+ in a row	48.0%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Toluca to score 3+ in a row	21.0%	19.4%	—	—	5.14
Tijuana to score 2+ in a row	14.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.19
Tijuana to score 3+ in a row	2.8%	2.6%	—	—	38.89

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca corners (+3.5)	96.6%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Toluca corners (+2.5)	93.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Toluca corners (+1.5)	89.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Toluca corners (-1.5)	64.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Tijuana corners (+3.5)	57.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Toluca corners (-2.5)	53.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Tijuana corners (+2.5)	46.6%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Toluca corners (-3.5)	42.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Tijuana corners (+1.5)	35.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Tijuana corners (-1.5)	10.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Tijuana corners (-2.5)	6.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Tijuana corners (-3.5)	3.4%	4.2%	—	—	23.64

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	52.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	36.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	33.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	25.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	18.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	11.3%	11.5%	9.9%	1.15×	8.73
1-1	11.6%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
2-0	11.3%	11.5%	7.1%	1.61×	8.73
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	10.7%	0.70×	13.48
0-0	7.6%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
3-0	6.9%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.48
3-1	6.0%	7.4%	5.7%	1.31×	13.48
0-1	4.9%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.46
0-2	2.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.48
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.49
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
1-2	4.6%	1.7%	8.9%	0.19×	58.46
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.48
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.47
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.49
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.47
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
4-0	3.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.47
4-1	2.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.47
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.48
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.41×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.81×	58.49
Any other score	4.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca leading at HT (DNB)	74.3%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Tijuana leading at HT (DNB)	25.7%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca or draw (1X)	83.6%	80.7%	70.7%	1.14×	1.24
Toluca or Tijuana (12)	75.7%	75.5%	76.2%	0.99×	1.32
Tijuana or draw (X2)	40.6%	45.9%	52.9%	0.87×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca or draw at HT	85.1%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Toluca or Tijuana at HT	58.2%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Tijuana or draw at HT	56.7%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca or draw (1UP)	83.6%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Tijuana or draw (1UP)	40.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca or draw in 2nd half	82.2%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Toluca or Tijuana in 2nd half	65.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Tijuana or draw in 2nd half	52.3%	54.5%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.8%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	39.2%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (DNB)	78.4%	74.7%	61.6%	1.21×	1.34
Tijuana (DNB)	21.6%	25.3%	38.4%	0.66×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to score first	62.8%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Tijuana to score first	29.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goal scored	7.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.3%	51.4%	40.7%	1.26×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.7%	48.6%	59.3%	0.82×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	38.1%	38.5%	48.0%	0.80×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	37.6%	38.5%	32.7%	1.18×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	12.7%	12.3%	8.2%	1.51×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	11.6%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.2%	85.6%	82.6%	1.04×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.8%	14.4%	17.4%	0.83×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.3%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.7%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.4%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.5%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.2%	5.0%	—	—	19.87

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.8%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.3%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.4%	47.4%	46.2%	1.03×	2.11
4-6 goals	26.7%	26.4%	29.1%	0.91×	3.78
0-1 goals	23.8%	22.8%	22.2%	1.03×	4.38
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	54.59

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana to score exactly 0	42.0%	37.0%	29.1%	1.27×	2.70
Tijuana to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	35.9%	1.00×	2.78
Tijuana to score exactly 2	15.8%	19.5%	22.0%	0.89×	5.12
Tijuana to score 3+	5.8%	8.4%	13.3%	0.63×	11.85

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to score exactly 1	29.2%	26.5%	33.4%	0.79×	3.77
Toluca to score 3+	28.0%	26.5%	22.2%	1.20×	3.77
Toluca to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	26.6%	1.00×	3.77
Toluca to score exactly 0	15.9%	18.9%	18.1%	1.04×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca leading at HT	43.3%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Draw at HT	41.8%	43.0%	—	—	2.32
Tijuana leading at HT	14.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.26

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca -1: 2	40.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Toluca -1: 1	35.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Toluca -1: X	24.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:1)	40.6%	42.6%	52.9%	0.81×	2.35
Toluca (0:1)	35.2%	37.2%	22.9%	1.62×	2.69
Draw (0:1)	24.1%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:2)	64.8%	67.4%	77.1%	0.87×	1.48
Draw (0:2)	18.6%	15.3%	14.0%	1.09×	6.54
Toluca (0:2)	16.6%	15.3%	9.1%	1.69×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:3)	83.4%	85.1%	90.9%	0.94×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.2%	10.0%	6.0%	1.65×	10.03
Toluca (0:3)	6.4%	5.8%	3.2%	1.82×	17.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana (0:4)	93.6%	94.7%	96.8%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.3%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.24
Toluca (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	83.50

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (1:0)	83.6%	81.5%	70.7%	1.15×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.9%	12.8%	19.0%	0.67×	7.82
Tijuana (1:0)	5.5%	6.9%	10.5%	0.66×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (2:0)	94.5%	94.0%	89.5%	1.05×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.2%	2.3%	7.3%	0.31×	44.13
Tijuana (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	3.4%	0.67×	44.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to concede	58.0%	61.0%	70.9%	0.86×	1.64
Toluca clean sheet	42.0%	39.0%	29.1%	1.34×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca clean sheet in 1st half	70.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Toluca to concede in 1st half	29.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca over 2.5 corners	88.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Toluca over 3.5 corners	77.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Toluca over 4.5 corners	65.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Toluca under 6.5 corners	59.9%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Toluca over 5.5 corners	52.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Toluca under 5.5 corners	47.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Toluca over 6.5 corners	40.1%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Toluca under 4.5 corners	34.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Toluca under 3.5 corners	22.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Toluca under 2.5 corners	12.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca under 3.5 goals	88.5%	87.3%	92.4%	0.94×	1.15
Toluca over 0.5 goals	84.1%	82.1%	81.9%	1.00×	1.22
Toluca under 2.5 goals	72.0%	74.2%	77.8%	0.95×	1.35
Toluca over 1.5 goals	54.9%	53.3%	48.7%	1.09×	1.88
Toluca under 1.5 goals	45.1%	46.7%	51.3%	0.91×	2.14
Toluca over 2.5 goals	28.0%	25.8%	22.2%	1.16×	3.87
Toluca under 0.5 goals	15.9%	17.9%	18.1%	0.99×	5.60
Toluca over 3.5 goals	11.5%	12.7%	7.6%	1.67×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca under 1.5 in 1st half	81.2%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Toluca under 0.5 in 1st half	45.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Toluca over 0.5 in 1st half	54.7%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Toluca over 1.5 in 1st half	18.8%	15.9%	—	—	6.31

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.7%	56.8%	44.8%	1.27×	1.76
Tijuana (home no bet)	40.3%	43.2%	55.2%	0.78×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca even goals	51.3%	50.6%	49.9%	1.01×	1.98
Toluca odd goals	48.7%	49.4%	50.1%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
HT 0-1	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	10.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.18
HT 1-1	9.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.00
Any other HT score	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.56
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.59
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca at HT / Toluca at FT	37.3%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Draw at HT / Toluca at FT	19.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Tijuana at HT / Tijuana at FT	8.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
Draw at HT / Tijuana at FT	7.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Toluca at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Tijuana at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.76
Tijuana at HT / Toluca at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Toluca at HT / Tijuana at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to score last	62.9%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Tijuana to score last	29.5%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	7.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.4%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Toluca to lead by 1 at any time	71.4%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.2%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Toluca to lead by 2 at any time	41.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Tijuana to lead by 1 at any time	33.5%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Toluca to lead by 3 at any time	19.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Tijuana to lead by 2 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	—	—	15.02
Tijuana to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.40

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca most corners	74.4%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Tijuana most corners	17.1%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Corners level	8.5%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	86.5%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.6%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.1%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.5%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.7%	63.4%	61.8%	1.03×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.4%	63.4%	60.2%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.7%	48.7%	53.3%	0.91×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.4%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.1%	48.7%	49.0%	0.99×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.6%	43.6%	37.7%	1.16×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.0%	39.1%	38.4%	1.02×	2.56
4-6 goals	26.7%	30.2%	29.1%	1.04×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.0%	24.5%	24.9%	0.98×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.7%	14.9%	15.1%	0.98×	6.73
7+ goals	2.1%	2.5%	2.8%	0.90×	39.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca never behind	58.9%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Tijuana never behind	21.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.9%	50.8%	52.6%	0.97×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.1%	49.2%	47.4%	1.04×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.5%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.5%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.3%	92.3%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.2%	87.6%	82.2%	1.07×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	77.3%	77.8%	0.99×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.3%	72.5%	68.2%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.8%	52.5%	56.0%	0.94×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.2%	47.5%	44.1%	1.08×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	28.7%	27.5%	31.8%	0.86×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	22.7%	22.2%	1.02×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	13.8%	12.4%	17.8%	0.70×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	6.6%	1.18×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.7%	7.7%	7.1%	1.09×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.8%	92.5%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.8%	81.1%	79.3%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.1%	67.4%	71.6%	0.94×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.1%	62.1%	58.1%	1.07×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.9%	37.9%	41.9%	0.90×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.9%	32.6%	28.4%	1.15×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.2%	18.9%	20.7%	0.92×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.2%	7.5%	8.0%	0.95×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	3.0%	0.93×	36.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.4%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.6%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana not to score in both halves	88.1%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Toluca not to score in both halves	64.5%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Toluca to score in both halves	35.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Tijuana to score in both halves	11.9%	14.1%	—	—	7.07

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.7%	50.5%	59.3%	0.85×	1.98
Only Toluca scores	34.4%	33.4%	22.7%	1.47×	3.00
Only Tijuana scores	8.3%	7.2%	11.7%	0.61×	13.90
Neither team scores	7.6%	7.2%	6.6%	1.09×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.4%	25.0%	22.0%	1.13×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	16.2%	17.4%	15.8%	1.10×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	14.9%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	8.1%	7.6%	10.8%	0.71×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	7.6%	7.6%	6.6%	1.16×	13.09
6 or more goals	5.7%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.10

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	21.1%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana not to win both halves	97.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Toluca not to win both halves	79.1%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Toluca to win both halves	20.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Tijuana to win both halves	2.7%	2.8%	—	—	36.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to win either half	70.1%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Tijuana to win neither half	70.0%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Tijuana to win either half	30.0%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Toluca to win neither half	29.9%	27.3%	—	—	3.67

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tijuana not to win to nil	91.7%	92.0%	88.3%	1.04×	1.09
Toluca not to win to nil	65.6%	69.6%	77.3%	0.90×	1.44
Toluca to win to nil	34.4%	30.4%	22.7%	1.34×	3.29
Tijuana to win to nil	8.3%	8.0%	11.7%	0.68×	12.55

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca by 1	24.1%	24.2%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
Draw	24.3%	24.2%	23.8%	1.01×	4.14
Toluca by 2	18.6%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.91
Toluca by 3+	16.6%	16.9%	9.1%	1.87×	5.91
Tijuana by 1	10.9%	11.8%	19.0%	0.62×	8.48
Tijuana by 2	4.2%	2.7%	7.3%	0.37×	36.96
Tijuana by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	3.4%	0.80×	37.05