Torino v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
1.25 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.68 – +1.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
16.6%
Draw
26.6%
Atalanta win
56.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.80–1.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.00–1.85 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 1.68 xGAtalanta 1.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 10' |
 Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 17' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 24' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 29' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lazar Samardzic |
| 33' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Davide Zappacosta |
| 33' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Raoul Bellanova |
| 37' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.73 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 41' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 47' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 63' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 65' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 66' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 69' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 72' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.49 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 76' |
Atalanta |
Raoul Bellanova | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 87' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Franco Israel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ivan Ilic MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Che Adams Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Adrien Tameze Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.44 | 0.70 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana AMC | 89 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.83 | 1.15 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 88 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.25 | 0.09 | 1.50 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| Honest Ahanor Sub | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Isak Hien DC | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicola Zalewski DML | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Maldini Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ademola Lookman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |