Torino v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 14
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.60 – +0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
31.0%
Draw
26.1%
Bologna win
42.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLLDWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.3 xG
conceded 12
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.33 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 0.40 xGBologna 1.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 12' |
 Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 20' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 24' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 26' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 28' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 40' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 43' |
Bologna |
João Mário | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 46' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 48' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 51' |
Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 56' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 59' |
Bologna |
Simon Sohm | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 61' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Marianucci |
| 61' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 69' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 77' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 81' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 94' |
Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Pedersen DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Marianucci DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Che Adams FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal DML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Valentino Lazaro Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Njie Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Moro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 0.87 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.85 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Martin Vitík DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Sohm AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.45 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| Federico Bernardeschi AMR | 84 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.70 |
| Jonathan Rowe AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.37 |
| João Mário DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Odgaard Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Lewis Ferguson Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |