Torino v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 9
On target
10 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.65
Goals − xG
-1.46 – +0.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
39.6%
Draw
31.7%
Cagliari win
28.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.27 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 2.46 xGCagliari 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 7' |
 Cagliari |
Riyad Idrissi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Luperto |
| 20' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Riyad Idrissi |
| 26' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 27' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Che Adams |
| 32' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Semih Kiliçsoy |
| 43' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 44' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 44' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.61 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Luca Mazzitelli |
| 46' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 52' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 53' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 58' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 59' |
Torino |
Marcus Pedersen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
| 60' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alessandro Deiola |
| 69' |
Torino |
Ardian Ismajli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 70' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 76' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Torino |
Emirhan Ilkhan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Torino |
Niels Nkounkou | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 86' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Niels Nkounkou |
| 89' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 90' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Duván Zapata |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Adrien Tameze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.96 |
| Marcus Pedersen MR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Che Adams FW | 70 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| Valentino Lazaro ML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Niels Nkounkou Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.03 | 0.71 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Riyad Idrissi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Alessandro Deiola DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gabriele Zappa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Luca Mazzitelli MC | 74 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.61 | 0.03 |
| Gianluca Gaetano AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Sebastiano Esposito Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Cavuoti Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |