Torino v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 24 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 15
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 13
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 1.51
Goals − xG
-0.43 – +1.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
27.6%
Draw
34.2%
Como win
38.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.93–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.06–1.19 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 46% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 1.43 xGComo 3.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 14' |
 Torino |
Adrien Tameze | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 14' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.64 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 25' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.54 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Torino |
Adrien Tameze | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 35' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Tameze |
| 37' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 41' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 45' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 47' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 51' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 69' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 70' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.24 | From Corner | — | Goal | Máximo Perrone |
| 70' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 73' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Tameze |
| 75' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Máximo Perrone |
| 79' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niels Nkounkou |
| 80' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 81' |
Torino |
Alieu Njie | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 85' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Tameze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Adam Masina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Valentino Lazaro DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Duván Zapata FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cyril Ngonge FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marcus Pedersen DMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Niels Nkounkou Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Njie Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Gvidas Gineitis Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Addai AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.64 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.10 | 0.58 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 87 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| Álvaro Morata FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.37 | 0.64 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 78 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.58 | 0.91 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Stefan Posch Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |