Torino v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 16
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.44 – 0.55
Goals − xG
+0.30 – -1.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
43.3%
Draw
33.0%
Empoli win
23.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 11.3 xG
conceded 14
from 10.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 0.70 xGEmpoli 1.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Empoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Empoli |
Junior Sambia | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Kouamé |
| 3' |
Empoli |
Alberto Grassi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 3' |
Empoli |
Liam Henderson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 12' |
Torino |
Cristiano Biraghi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Che Adams |
| 14' |
Empoli |
Junior Sambia | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 18' |
Empoli |
Junior Sambia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 19' |
Empoli |
Emmanuel Gyasi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Sambia |
| 23' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.19 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 29' |
Empoli |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emmanuel Gyasi |
| 31' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Empoli |
Junior Sambia | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 39' |
Empoli |
Giuseppe Pezzella | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 46' |
Empoli |
Emmanuel Gyasi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 47' |
Empoli |
Ardian Ismajli | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Liberato Cacace |
| 55' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 58' |
Torino |
Adam Masina | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 59' |
Empoli |
Christian Kouamé | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 60' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Che Adams |
| 63' |
Empoli |
Christian Kouamé | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Liberato Cacace |
| 63' |
Empoli |
Giuseppe Pezzella | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Empoli |
Emmanuel Gyasi | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Kouamé |
| 69' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
Torino |
Cristiano Biraghi | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 88' |
Torino |
Yann Karamoh | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 97' |
Empoli |
Ismael Konaté | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nikola Vlasic FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.33 | 0.05 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Che Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Samuele Ricci MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Eljif Elmas FWL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Adam Masina Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentino Lazaro Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yann Karamoh Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Adrien Tameze Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Empoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Gyasi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.02 | 0.94 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Christian Kouamé FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.97 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Marco Silvestri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Luca Marianucci DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Liberato Cacace DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| Liam Henderson MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Junior Sambia DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.64 |
| Sebastiano Esposito AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| Lorenzo Colombo Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Viktor Kovalenko Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismael Konaté Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |