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Torino v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 8 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–1
0.65 – 0.31 xG
Shots
10 – 7
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.35 – +0.69
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.20.40.50.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Andrea Pinamonti 67' — goal
Torino 0.65 xGGenoa 0.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Johan Vásquez 2' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Nikola Vlasic 6' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nikola Vlasic 6' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Borna Sosa 7' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Nikola Vlasic 26' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Vitinha 40' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Yann Karamoh 41' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Morten Thorsby 46' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, From Corner)Junior Messias 51' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Valentino Lazaro 52' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Che Adams 54' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Gvidas Gineitis 56' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Alessandro Zanoli 66' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Andrea Pinamonti 67' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Zanoli 83' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Samuele Ricci 84' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Cesare Casadei 90' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)
Torino attacking right Genoa attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Genoa Johan Vásquez 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Aarón Martín
6' Torino Nikola Vlasic 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Yann Karamoh
6' Torino Nikola Vlasic 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Valentino Lazaro
7' Torino Borna Sosa 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yann Karamoh
26' Torino Nikola Vlasic 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Che Adams
40' Genoa Vitinha 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alan Matturro
41' Torino Yann Karamoh 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gvidas Gineitis
46' Genoa Morten Thorsby 0.00 From Corner Own Goal
51' Genoa Junior Messias 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
52' Torino Valentino Lazaro 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
54' Torino Che Adams 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nikola Vlasic
56' Torino Gvidas Gineitis 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
66' Genoa Alessandro Zanoli 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Johan Vásquez
67' Genoa Andrea Pinamonti 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal Junior Messias
83' Genoa Alessandro Zanoli 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
84' Torino Samuele Ricci 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
90' Torino Cesare Casadei 0.10 From Corner Missed Shot Cristiano Biraghi

Players

Torino

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Che Adams FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.14 0.08 0.33
Samuele Ricci MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.31
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sebastian Walukiewicz DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Saúl Coco DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Guillermo Maripán DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Nikola Vlasic AMC 87 0 0 3 1 0.15 0.14 0.43
Borna Sosa DML 73 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.18
Yann Karamoh AMC 73 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.16 0.22
Valentino Lazaro DMR 73 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.04 0.34
Gvidas Gineitis Sub 61 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.06 0.06
Adrien Tameze MC 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cesare Casadei Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.00
Cristiano Biraghi Sub 17 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.00
Marcus Pedersen Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Sanabria Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Genoa

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Johan Vásquez DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.06 0.06
Nicola Leali GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Morten Thorsby FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alan Matturro DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Morten Frendrup MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefano Sabelli DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aarón Martín DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.00
Andrea Pinamonti FW 80 1 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Milan Badelj MC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vitinha MR 54 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Fabio Miretti ML 54 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alessandro Zanoli Sub 36 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.06
Junior Messias Sub 36 0 1 1 1 0.01 0.07 0.08
Patrizio Masini Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Caleb Ekuban Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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