Torino v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 12
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.51 – 0.86
Goals − xG
-1.77 – -0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
19.8%
Draw
28.3%
Internazionale win
51.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Internazionale are finishing sharply above their chances — 7.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWDWWDDWW last 10
scored 28
from 20.5 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.93–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.87–1.88 | 0-1 12% | 52% | 49% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 1.77 xGInternazionale 2.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Internazionale |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 24' |
 Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Matteo Darmian | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Bisseck |
| 26' |
Internazionale |
Joaquín Correa | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 29' |
Torino |
Ali Dembélé | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 31' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 36' |
Torino |
Adam Masina | 0.45 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 46' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 47' |
Torino |
Samuele Ricci | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ali Dembélé |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 55' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 55' |
Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 56' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 64' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 68' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Internazionale |
Joaquín Correa | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 71' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 81' |
Internazionale |
Joaquín Correa | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mehdi Taremi |
| 87' |
Internazionale |
Joaquín Correa | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 87' |
Torino |
Cristiano Biraghi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ivan Ilic |
| 87' |
Torino |
Cristiano Biraghi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 91' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Che Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Adam Masina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Eljif Elmas AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.77 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.06 | 1.18 | 0.84 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.57 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Valentino Lazaro AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Samuele Ricci DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ali Dembélé DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Gvidas Gineitis DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Sergiu Perciun Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ivan Ilic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Alessio Cacciamani Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Correa AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Matteo Darmian DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mehdi Taremi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.68 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.97 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| Carlos Augusto DML | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Federico Dimarco Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.12 | 0.58 |
| Denzel Dumfries Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 1.14 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Nicolò Barella Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Francesco Acerbi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |