Torino v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 17
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.71
Goals − xG
+1.02 – -0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
17.4%
Draw
20.7%
Juventus win
61.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLLWLDWWW last 10
scored 16
from 12.5 xG
conceded 15
from 14.3 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDWWDLWDL last 10
scored 12
from 18.7 xG
conceded 12
from 5.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.88 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 0.98 xGJuventus 2.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Obrador |
| 15' |
 Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 15' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.41 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 15' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 20' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 21' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 23' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kephren Thuram |
| 28' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Pedersen |
| 30' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 30' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Pedersen |
| 31' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 35' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 41' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Ebosse |
| 43' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 46' |
Torino |
Emirhan Ilkhan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 48' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 51' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Francisco Conceição |
| 56' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 59' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Goal | Rafael Obrador |
| 77' |
Torino |
Alieu Njie | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 77' |
Torino |
Matteo Prati | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 83' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.21 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Niels Nkounkou |
| 83' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 85' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Emil Holm | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Pedersen MR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Rafael Obrador ML | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| Duván Zapata FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Che Adams Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Alieu Njie Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Niels Nkounkou Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| Matteo Prati Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Gatti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1.03 |
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1.55 |
| Mattia Perin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Jeremie Boga AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.38 | 1.51 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.40 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.45 | 1.18 |
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 65 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1.16 | 0.57 | 1.64 |
| Jonathan Christian David Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Holm Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |