Torino v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.53
Goals − xG
+0.90 – -1.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
25.0%
Draw
27.9%
Lazio win
47.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino have scored 15 from 14.1 expected and conceded 14 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDLLWLDWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 14
from 16.0 xG
Lazio are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 16
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.95–1.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.26–1.27 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 1.10 xGLazio 1.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 4' |
Torino |
Matteo Prati | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 11' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 19' |
 Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Reda Belahyane |
| 20' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 20' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 28' |
Lazio |
Petar Ratkov | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 33' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 36' |
Lazio |
Reda Belahyane | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 43' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 51' |
Torino |
Matteo Prati | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 52' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Goal | Rafael Obrador |
| 54' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 58' |
Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 74' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lazio |
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 86' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adam Marusic |
| 86' |
Lazio |
Kenneth Taylor | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Torino |
Sandro Kulenovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Lazio |
Oliver Provstgaard | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 89' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 89' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sandro Kulenovic |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.12 | 0.74 |
| Duván Zapata FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Rafael Obrador DML | 73 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Ivan Ilic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niels Nkounkou Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Kulenovic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Adrien Tameze Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.30 |
| Oliver Provstgaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.47 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Reda Belahyane MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Petar Ratkov FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nuno Tavares Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| Boulaye Dia Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |