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Torino v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 23 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG

3–2
1.45 – 0.44 xG
Shots
18 – 7
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+1.54 – +1.56
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kian Fitz-Jim 38' — goalGustavo Varela 46' — goalRafik Belghali 60' — goalNikola Vlasic 71' — goal
Torino 1.46 xGMonza 0.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dany Mota 0' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Rolando Mandragora 1' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rolando Mandragora 10' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ardian Ismajli 11' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Gustavo Varela 31' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Simeone 37' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Kian Fitz-Jim 38' — Goal (0.43 xG, Open Play)Samuele Birindelli 45' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gustavo Varela 46' — Goal (0.24 xG, Open Play)Rafik Belghali 53' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Che Adams 54' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pietro Comuzzo 60' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Rafik Belghali 60' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jay Robinson 63' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Che Adams 66' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ricardo Mangas 67' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Simeone 69' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Nikola Vlasic 71' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Che Adams 75' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Michael Folorunsho 78' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Che Adams 88' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nathan Patterson 90' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 90' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 92' — Saved Shot (0.23 xG, Open Play)Nathan Patterson 93' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)
Torino attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Monza Dany Mota 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Samuele Birindelli
1' Torino Rolando Mandragora 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alessio Cacciamani
10' Torino Rolando Mandragora 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Giovanni Simeone
11' Torino Ardian Ismajli 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Rolando Mandragora
31' Monza Gustavo Varela 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
37' Torino Giovanni Simeone 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Che Adams
38' Torino Kian Fitz-Jim 0.43 Open Play Left Foot Goal Giovanni Simeone
45' Monza Samuele Birindelli 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
46' Monza Gustavo Varela 0.24 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
53' Torino Rafik Belghali 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
54' Torino Che Adams 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gvidas Gineitis
60' Torino Pietro Comuzzo 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot —
60' Torino Rafik Belghali 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gvidas Gineitis
63' Monza Jay Robinson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ricardo Mangas
66' Torino Che Adams 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alessio Cacciamani
67' Monza Ricardo Mangas 0.06 Open Play — Saved Shot Dany Mota
69' Torino Giovanni Simeone 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nikola Vlasic
71' Torino Nikola Vlasic 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
75' Torino Che Adams 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
78' Monza Michael Folorunsho 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ricardo Mangas
88' Torino Che Adams 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Zakaria Aboukhlal
90' Torino Nathan Patterson 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
90' Torino Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nikola Vlasic
92' Torino Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.23 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nikola Vlasic
93' Torino Nathan Patterson 0.00 Open Play Right Foot Own Goal —

Players

Torino

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Che Adams FW 90 0 0 4 1 0.15 0.03 0.25
Nikola Vlasic MC 90 1 0 1 3 0.10 0.48 0.62
Ardian Ismajli DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.02
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.02
Lucas Perri GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Saúl Coco DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Rafik Belghali MR 86 1 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.10
Kian Fitz-Jim MC 73 1 0 1 0 0.43 0.00 0.47
Giovanni Simeone FW 73 0 1 2 3 0.16 0.45 0.62
Alessio Cacciamani ML 73 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.03 0.03
Rolando Mandragora DMC 53 0 0 2 1 0.04 0.04 0.04
Gvidas Gineitis Sub 37 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.05
Nathan Patterson Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Daniel Bragança Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sandro Kulenovic Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub 4 0 0 2 1 0.35 0.09 0.44

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gustavo Varela FW 90 1 0 2 0 0.27 0.00 0.27
Ricardo Mangas DML 90 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.03 0.10
Samuele Birindelli DMR 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.06 0.04
Saba Goglichidze DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.07
Noel Törnqvist GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Andrea Carboni DC 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Dany Mota AMC 81 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.06 0.06
Jay Robinson AMC 81 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.08
Manga Foe Ondoa MC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Lorenzo Lucchesi DC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Michael Folorunsho Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.07
Eddy Kouadio Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Cutrone Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cyril Ngonge Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mathis Mout Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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