Torino v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 13 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 7
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.97 – 0.27
Goals − xG
+1.56 – +0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
40.0%
Draw
29.7%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
30.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLLWLDWWW last 10
scored 16
from 12.5 xG
conceded 15
from 14.3 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWLLDLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 8.6 xG
conceded 17
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.20–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.10 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 2.44 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 12' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 26' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 29' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 30' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mariano Troilo | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 38' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 40' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 41' |
Torino |
Rafael Obrador | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Alessandro Circati | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 53' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 53' |
Torino |
Emirhan Ilkhan | 0.80 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 55' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Che Adams |
| 62' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 66' |
Torino |
Emirhan Ilkhan | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 72' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Torino |
Sandro Kulenovic | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Duván Zapata |
| 90' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sandro Kulenovic |
| 93' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.75 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.58 |
| Rafael Obrador ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marcus Pedersen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan MC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Che Adams FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| Matteo Prati Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Kulenovic Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| Luca Marianucci Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Sørensen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enrico Del Prato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuele Valeri ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Sascha Britschgi Sub | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mandela Keita DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Ordóñez MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lautaro Valenti Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamín Cremaschi MR | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |