Torino v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 7 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 9
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.67 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
47.1%
Draw
29.8%
Udinese win
23.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.15 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 1.67 xGUdinese 2.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20' |
 Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Zakaria Aboukhlal |
| 22' |
 Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 25' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 27' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 33' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Saúl Coco |
| 36' |
Torino |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 49' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 56' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 72' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 75' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Che Adams |
| 78' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 81' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.98 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Keinan Davis |
| 86' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Goal | Valentino Lazaro |
| 89' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 92' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Che Adams |
| 93' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kingsley Ehizibue |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.04 | 0.88 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1.38 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.78 |
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal DML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alieu Njie FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Che Adams Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.69 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrien Tameze Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keinan Davis FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1.02 | 1.49 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hassane Kamara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp ML | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.01 | 0.59 | 2.10 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennon Miller MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 63 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.04 | 0.81 |
| Alessandro Zanoli MR | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Arthur Atta Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1.22 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |