Toronto v D.C. United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Toronto

23:30 UTC

D.C. United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 84h before kick-off

Toronto win

51.1%

model 52.5%

Draw

26.7%

model 25.1%

D.C. United win

22.2%

model 22.5%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.9%
1-0 10.2%
2-1 9.7%
2-0 9.3%
0-0 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.2%	Under 2.5	47.8%
BTTS yes	53.9%	BTTS no	46.1%
Toronto 1+	82.1%	Toronto 2+	51.2%
D.C. United 1+	64.9%	D.C. United 2+	28.2%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Toronto or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 70%

77.3% fair odds 1.29

moderate signal · 1708 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Toronto not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Toronto carry the stronger rating, 1494 Elo against 1405.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Toronto have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for the draw and 22.2% for D.C. United. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.72 for Toronto and 1.05 for D.C. United.

Why Toronto

Toronto carry the stronger rating, 1494 Elo against 1405. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why D.C. United can win

Nothing in the data singles out D.C. United.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Toronto, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for D.C. United, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Toronto: 39% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. D.C. United: 36% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Toronto are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	522522	1.72–1.05	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542521	1.73–1.00	1-1 12%	51%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to win	53.9%	51.5%	45.3%	1.14×	1.94
Draw	25.0%	24.5%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09
D.C. United to win	21.1%	24.5%	30.0%	0.82×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto & not both score	29.7%	25.2%	21.1%	1.19×	3.97
Toronto & both teams score	24.2%	21.8%	24.4%	0.90×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.57
D.C. United & not both score	10.6%	13.3%	12.1%	1.10×	7.54
D.C. United & both teams score	10.5%	13.3%	18.0%	0.74×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.2%	8.3%	5.8%	1.45×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto & over 1.5	43.2%	40.3%	37.2%	1.08×	2.48
Toronto & under 3.5	35.9%	34.9%	28.4%	1.23×	2.87
Toronto & over 2.5	33.4%	30.8%	31.0%	0.99×	3.25
Toronto & under 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	14.4%	1.50×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Toronto & over 3.5	18.0%	18.0%	17.0%	1.06×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
D.C. United & under 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
D.C. United & over 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	23.7%	0.76×	5.56
D.C. United & over 2.5	11.9%	12.8%	20.5%	0.63×	7.79
Toronto & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	8.2%	1.56×	7.79
D.C. United & under 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	5.8%	1.38×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63
D.C. United & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
D.C. United & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	11.3%	0.70×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (1UP)	67.5%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
D.C. United (1UP)	38.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (2UP)	53.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
D.C. United (2UP)	21.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to win 2nd half	43.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	35.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
D.C. United to win 2nd half	21.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.9%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
D.C. United under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
D.C. United over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
D.C. United over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.1%	13.2%	—	—	7.60

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.2%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Toronto over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.6%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Toronto under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.4%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Toronto over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.8%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (+2.5)	86.6%	88.5%	89.4%	0.99×	1.13
Toronto (+0.5)	78.9%	78.5%	70.0%	1.12×	1.27
D.C. United (+1.5)	69.8%	68.7%	76.8%	0.89×	1.46
Toronto (-0.5)	53.9%	52.4%	45.3%	1.16×	1.91
D.C. United (+0.5)	46.1%	47.6%	54.7%	0.87×	2.10
Toronto (-1.5)	30.2%	31.3%	23.2%	1.35×	3.20
D.C. United (-0.5)	21.1%	21.5%	30.0%	0.72×	4.65
Toronto (-2.5)	13.4%	11.5%	10.6%	1.09×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United to concede	82.2%	81.5%	82.3%	0.99×	1.23
D.C. United clean sheet	17.8%	18.5%	17.7%	1.04×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United to concede in 1st half	52.4%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
D.C. United clean sheet in 1st half	47.6%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United to concede in 2nd half	62.6%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
D.C. United clean sheet in 2nd half	37.4%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United over 2.5 corners	80.0%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
D.C. United under 6.5 corners	75.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
D.C. United over 3.5 corners	65.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
D.C. United under 5.5 corners	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
D.C. United under 4.5 corners	50.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
D.C. United over 4.5 corners	49.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
D.C. United over 5.5 corners	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
D.C. United under 3.5 corners	34.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
D.C. United over 6.5 corners	24.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
D.C. United under 2.5 corners	20.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.5%	94.0%	1.04×	1.03
D.C. United under 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	83.3%	1.11×	1.08
D.C. United under 1.5 goals	73.7%	71.9%	61.2%	1.17×	1.39
D.C. United over 0.5 goals	63.1%	63.2%	73.3%	0.86×	1.58
D.C. United under 0.5 goals	36.9%	36.8%	26.7%	1.38×	2.72
D.C. United over 1.5 goals	26.3%	28.1%	38.8%	0.73×	3.55
D.C. United over 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	16.7%	0.46×	13.06
D.C. United over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.5%	6.0%	0.42×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United under 1.5 in 1st half	93.9%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
D.C. United under 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
D.C. United over 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
D.C. United over 1.5 in 1st half	6.1%	6.2%	—	—	16.26

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United scores equally in both	46.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
D.C. United scores more in 2nd half	33.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
D.C. United scores more in 1st half	20.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (away no bet)	68.4%	66.4%	64.6%	1.03×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	31.6%	33.6%	35.4%	0.95×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United even goals	56.8%	56.9%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
D.C. United odd goals	43.2%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.2%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.8%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.0%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.0%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Toronto to score 2+ in a row	43.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
D.C. United to score 2+ in a row	18.5%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Toronto to score 3+ in a row	17.8%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
D.C. United to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	2.6%	—	—	38.32

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto corners (+3.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Toronto corners (+2.5)	79.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
D.C. United corners (+3.5)	76.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Toronto corners (+1.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
D.C. United corners (+2.5)	67.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
D.C. United corners (+1.5)	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Toronto corners (-1.5)	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Toronto corners (-2.5)	32.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
D.C. United corners (-1.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Toronto corners (-3.5)	24.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
D.C. United corners (-2.5)	20.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
D.C. United corners (-3.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	36.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	33.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	66.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 11.5 corners	63.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	56.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 9.5 corners	43.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	36.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	33.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	28.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.9%	11.5%	10.4%	1.11×	8.72
1-0	10.7%	11.5%	8.2%	1.39×	8.72
2-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
0-0	7.2%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.51
0-1	5.9%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
1-2	5.6%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
3-0	5.6%	7.4%	4.2%	1.77×	13.51
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.51
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.29
0-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.30
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.32
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.31
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.32
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.54×	58.32
4-0	2.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.31
4-1	2.4%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.80×	58.32
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (2nd half DNB)	66.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
D.C. United (2nd half DNB)	33.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto leading at HT (DNB)	69.1%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
D.C. United leading at HT (DNB)	30.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto or draw (1X)	78.9%	75.5%	70.0%	1.08×	1.32
Toronto or D.C. United (12)	75.0%	75.5%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
D.C. United or draw (X2)	46.1%	48.5%	54.7%	0.89×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto or draw at HT	82.2%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
D.C. United or draw at HT	60.1%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Toronto or D.C. United at HT	57.7%	57.7%	—	—	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto or draw (1UP)	78.9%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
D.C. United or draw (1UP)	46.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto or draw in 2nd half	78.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Toronto or D.C. United in 2nd half	65.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
D.C. United or draw in 2nd half	56.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.8%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.2%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (DNB)	71.8%	71.4%	60.2%	1.19×	1.40
D.C. United (DNB)	28.2%	28.6%	39.8%	0.72×	3.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to score first	58.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
D.C. United to score first	34.0%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	7.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.5%	51.3%	61.3%	0.84×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.5%	48.7%	38.7%	1.26×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.6%	41.6%	51.1%	0.81×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	36.9%	38.4%	29.5%	1.30×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.9%	12.4%	10.4%	1.19×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	9.2%	1.34×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.4%	85.6%	79.5%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.6%	14.4%	20.5%	0.70×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.6%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.4%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.5%	21.0%	—	—	4.76
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	—	—	20.11

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.7%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.3%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.2%	43.0%	1.10×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.0%	26.6%	33.0%	0.81×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.8%	22.9%	20.2%	1.14×	4.36
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United to score exactly 0	36.9%	35.9%	26.7%	1.34×	2.78
D.C. United to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
D.C. United to score exactly 2	18.3%	19.6%	22.2%	0.88×	5.11
D.C. United to score 3+	8.0%	8.6%	16.7%	0.51×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to score exactly 1	30.7%	32.6%	31.1%	1.05×	3.07
Toronto to score exactly 2	26.5%	26.5%	26.4%	1.01×	3.77
Toronto to score 3+	25.0%	23.3%	25.0%	0.93×	4.29
Toronto to score exactly 0	17.8%	18.8%	17.7%	1.06×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.3%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Toronto leading at HT	39.9%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
D.C. United leading at HT	17.8%	16.1%	—	—	6.23

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto -1: 2	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Toronto -1: 1	30.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Toronto -1: X	23.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (0:1)	46.1%	46.1%	54.7%	0.84×	2.17
Toronto (0:1)	30.2%	30.0%	23.2%	1.29×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	23.7%	24.2%	22.2%	1.09×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (0:2)	69.8%	72.3%	76.8%	0.94×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	16.8%	15.3%	12.7%	1.20×	6.55
Toronto (0:2)	13.4%	11.0%	10.6%	1.04×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (0:3)	86.6%	90.6%	89.4%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.5%	5.8%	6.7%	0.87×	17.21
Toronto (0:3)	4.9%	2.4%	4.1%	0.59×	42.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (0:4)	95.1%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.4%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	81.79
Toronto (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	82.00

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (1:0)	78.9%	78.6%	70.0%	1.12×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.4%	12.7%	17.1%	0.74×	7.87
D.C. United (1:0)	7.7%	6.9%	13.0%	0.53×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (2:0)	92.3%	94.0%	87.0%	1.08×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.69
D.C. United (2:0)	2.1%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.1%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to concede	63.1%	63.7%	73.3%	0.87×	1.57
Toronto clean sheet	36.9%	36.3%	26.7%	1.36×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto clean sheet in 1st half	67.1%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Toronto to concede in 1st half	32.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto clean sheet in 2nd half	55.0%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Toronto to concede in 2nd half	45.0%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto over 2.5 corners	85.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Toronto over 3.5 corners	74.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Toronto under 6.5 corners	65.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Toronto over 4.5 corners	60.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Toronto under 5.5 corners	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Toronto over 5.5 corners	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Toronto under 4.5 corners	39.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Toronto over 6.5 corners	34.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Toronto under 3.5 corners	26.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Toronto under 2.5 corners	14.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 3.5 goals	90.3%	92.2%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Toronto over 0.5 goals	82.2%	82.2%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Toronto under 2.5 goals	75.0%	77.7%	75.0%	1.04×	1.29
Toronto over 1.5 goals	51.5%	53.2%	51.3%	1.04×	1.88
Toronto under 1.5 goals	48.5%	46.8%	48.7%	0.96×	2.14
Toronto over 2.5 goals	25.0%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.49
Toronto under 0.5 goals	17.8%	17.8%	17.7%	1.00×	5.63
Toronto over 3.5 goals	9.7%	7.8%	9.4%	0.83×	12.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 1.5 in 1st half	82.9%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Toronto over 0.5 in 1st half	52.4%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Toronto under 0.5 in 1st half	47.6%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Toronto over 1.5 in 1st half	17.1%	16.2%	—	—	6.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto scores more in 2nd half	40.0%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Toronto scores equally in both	33.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Toronto scores more in 1st half	26.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.1%	51.4%	45.3%	1.14×	1.95
D.C. United (home no bet)	45.9%	48.6%	54.7%	0.89×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto even goals	51.6%	50.7%	51.0%	1.00×	1.97
Toronto odd goals	48.4%	49.3%	49.0%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
HT 1-0	23.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	12.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	9.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
HT 2-0	8.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
Any other HT score	4.7%	2.4%	—	—	41.90
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	41.98
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto at HT / Toronto at FT	33.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Draw at HT / Toronto at FT	18.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
D.C. United at HT / D.C. United at FT	10.8%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / D.C. United at FT	8.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.40
Toronto at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
D.C. United at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
D.C. United at HT / Toronto at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Toronto at HT / D.C. United at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to score last	58.9%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
D.C. United to score last	33.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	7.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Toronto to lead by 1 at any time	67.5%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.5%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
D.C. United to lead by 1 at any time	38.9%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Toronto to lead by 2 at any time	36.5%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Toronto to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
D.C. United to lead by 2 at any time	12.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
D.C. United to lead by 3 at any time	3.0%	1.6%	—	—	61.99

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto most corners	52.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
D.C. United most corners	37.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	83.4%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.8%	78.7%	73.2%	1.08×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.0%	72.4%	75.9%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.3%	72.3%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.7%	63.3%	57.4%	1.10×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.1%	63.3%	58.7%	1.08×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.1%	48.5%	56.3%	0.86×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.5%	43.0%	1.13×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.4%	48.5%	49.4%	0.98×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.6%	43.6%	34.2%	1.28×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.2%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.0%	30.2%	33.0%	0.92×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.3%	24.5%	26.2%	0.94×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.9%	14.8%	17.2%	0.86×	6.76
7+ goals	2.1%	2.6%	4.1%	0.63×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto never behind	54.0%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
D.C. United never behind	25.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.6%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.4%	49.1%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.9%	87.6%	78.8%	1.11×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	77.3%	79.8%	0.97×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	70.9%	72.5%	63.0%	1.15×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.2%	52.5%	60.2%	0.87×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	48.8%	47.5%	39.8%	1.19×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.1%	27.5%	37.0%	0.74×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	22.7%	20.2%	1.13×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	14.1%	12.4%	21.2%	0.59×	8.05
Under 0.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	5.8%	1.34×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	10.9%	0.71×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.6%	92.4%	87.8%	1.05×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.4%	81.1%	74.8%	1.08×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.2%	67.5%	74.9%	0.90×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.6%	61.9%	51.8%	1.19×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.4%	38.1%	48.2%	0.79×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.8%	32.5%	25.1%	1.30×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.6%	18.9%	25.2%	0.75×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.4%	7.6%	12.2%	0.62×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	4.4%	0.64×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.2%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.0%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.0%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United not to score in both halves	85.2%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Toronto not to score in both halves	67.2%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Toronto to score in both halves	32.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
D.C. United to score in both halves	14.8%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.5%	53.8%	61.3%	0.88×	1.86
Only Toronto scores	29.7%	26.1%	21.1%	1.24×	3.84
Only D.C. United scores	10.6%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.07
Neither team scores	7.2%	7.1%	5.8%	1.24×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.9%	22.6%	19.7%	1.14×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.7%	17.5%	14.5%	1.20×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.1%	17.5%	15.9%	1.10×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.2%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	7.2%	7.6%	5.8%	1.32×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.9%	7.6%	10.9%	0.70×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	32.0%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	20.9%	21.4%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	10.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.24

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.1%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	20.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United not to win both halves	96.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Toronto not to win both halves	82.5%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Toronto to win both halves	17.5%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
D.C. United to win both halves	3.9%	2.8%	—	—	35.41

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to win either half	65.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
D.C. United to win neither half	64.6%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
D.C. United to win either half	35.4%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
Toronto to win neither half	34.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United not to win to nil	89.4%	88.1%	87.9%	1.00×	1.14
Toronto not to win to nil	70.3%	75.3%	78.9%	0.95×	1.33
Toronto to win to nil	29.7%	24.7%	21.1%	1.17×	4.05
D.C. United to win to nil	10.6%	11.9%	12.1%	0.98×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.0%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Toronto by 1	23.7%	24.1%	22.2%	1.09×	4.15
Toronto by 2	16.8%	17.0%	12.7%	1.34×	5.87
D.C. United by 1	13.4%	11.8%	17.1%	0.69×	8.51
Toronto by 3+	13.4%	11.8%	10.6%	1.11×	8.51
D.C. United by 2	5.6%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
D.C. United by 3+	2.1%	2.7%	4.5%	0.60×	36.87