Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:04

Tottenham Hotspur

1–4

0.38 – 3.32 xG

Arsenal

Shots

6 – 20

On target

5 – 6

Shots in box

3 – 13

xG per shot

0.06 – 0.17

Set-piece xG

0.00 – 0.47

Goals − xG

+0.62 – +0.68

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Tottenham Hotspur win

20.4%

Draw

30.4%

Arsenal win

49.2%

203049

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDWWDLWLLD last 10 scored 8 from 13.2 xG conceded 12 from 13.4 xG

Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 16 from 22.9 xG conceded 6 from 9.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	203049	0.90–1.51	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	192457	0.90–1.73	0-1 12%	49%	49%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Tottenham Hotspur 0.38 xGArsenal 3.32 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Tottenham Hotspur attacking right Arsenal attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
3'	Arsenal	Viktor Gyokeres	0.10	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Jurriën Timber
4'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
6'	Arsenal	Viktor Gyokeres	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Piero Hincapié
16'	Arsenal	William Saliba	0.47	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Viktor Gyokeres
17'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
20'	Tottenham Hotspur	Pape Sarr	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Xavi Simons
31'	Arsenal	Eberechi Eze	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
31'	Arsenal	Eberechi Eze	0.57	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
33'	Tottenham Hotspur	Randal Kolo Muani	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
36'	Arsenal	Bukayo Saka	0.29	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Piero Hincapié
39'	Arsenal	Bukayo Saka	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
40'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Jurriën Timber
45'	Tottenham Hotspur	Xavi Simons	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Randal Kolo Muani
46'	Arsenal	Viktor Gyokeres	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Jurriën Timber
47'	Arsenal	Eberechi Eze	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
50'	Arsenal	Eberechi Eze	0.16	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Piero Hincapié
50'	Arsenal	Piero Hincapié	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Bukayo Saka
58'	Arsenal	Bukayo Saka	0.34	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Eberechi Eze
60'	Arsenal	Eberechi Eze	0.44	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
65'	Arsenal	Bukayo Saka	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Cristhian Mosquera
70'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Bukayo Saka
71'	Arsenal	Bukayo Saka	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Eberechi Eze
83'	Tottenham Hotspur	Richarlison	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Djed Spence
91'	Tottenham Hotspur	Richarlison	0.09	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Mathys Tel
93'	Arsenal	Viktor Gyokeres	0.37	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Martin Odegaard
97'	Tottenham Hotspur	Pape Sarr	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—

Players

Arsenal

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Bukayo Saka AMR	90	0	0	5	2	0.87	0.04	1.06
Viktor Gyokeres FW	90	2	0	4	1	0.59	0.47	0.62
William Saliba DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.47	0.00	0.38
Piero Hincapié DL	90	0	0	1	3	0.01	0.50	0.62
Declan Rice DMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.20
Martín Zubimendi DMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.40
David Raya GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.27
Gabriel DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.17
Eberechi Eze AMC	85	2	0	5	2	1.21	0.46	1.67
Leandro Trossard AML	84	0	0	4	0	0.17	0.00	0.40
Jurriën Timber DR	65	0	1	0	3	0.00	0.24	0.32
Cristhian Mosquera Sub	25	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.07	0.44
Gabriel Martinelli Sub	6	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.37
Martin Odegaard Sub	5	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.37	0.37
Noni Madueke Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.37