Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 7
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.60
Goals − xG
-0.79 – -0.12
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
25.3%
Draw
22.1%
Arsenal win
52.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–1.94 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 0.79 xGArsenal 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 7' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 16' |
 Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 17' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 18' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | James Maddison |
| 42' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 45' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 47' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 48' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | James Maddison |
| 59' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 62' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 72' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 90' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 93' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Romero |
| 95' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pape Sarr |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jurriën Timber DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ben White DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorginho MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.55 | 0.09 |
| Gabriel Martinelli MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| Raheem Sterling Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Dejan Kulusevski MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Son Heung-Min FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| James Maddison MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Brennan Johnson FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Wilson Odobert Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Timo Werner Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |