Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Tottenham Hotspur

07:30

Aston Villa

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 292h before kick-off

Tottenham Hotspur win

44.1%

model 41.6%

Draw

27.5%

model 25.2%

Aston Villa win

28.4%

model 33.2%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.9%
1-0 9.1%
2-1 8.9%
0-1 8.0%
1-2 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.0%	Under 2.5	47.0%
BTTS yes	56.5%	BTTS no	43.5%
Tottenham Hotspur 1+	77.5%	Tottenham Hotspur 2+	43.9%
Aston Villa 1+	72.9%	Aston Villa 2+	37.6%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.31. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 64%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

moderate signal · 1576 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 80%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Tottenham Hotspur have created 1.32 xG a match over their last five while Aston Villa have allowed 1.57.
At home Tottenham Hotspur average 1.44 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Tottenham Hotspur have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.4% for Aston Villa and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.31 for Aston Villa.

Why Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur have created 1.32 xG a match over their last five while Aston Villa have allowed 1.57. At home Tottenham Hotspur average 1.44 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.49 to 1.31. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Aston Villa can win

Aston Villa carry the stronger rating, 1624 Elo against 1501. Aston Villa have created 1.57 xG a match over their last five while Tottenham Hotspur have allowed 1.34. Away from home Aston Villa average 1.40 xG a match.

Key players

Tottenham Hotspur's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Omar Marmoush (0.39), Richarlison (0.37), Dominic Solanke (0.29). Aston Villa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ollie Watkins (0.57), Morgan Rogers (0.36), Nicolas Jackson (0.34).

Availability

2 of Tottenham Hotspur's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Tottenham Hotspur's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Aston Villa's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Tottenham Hotspur: 56% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.61 xG a match from set pieces. Aston Villa: 46% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.66 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Tottenham Hotspur are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDWWDLWLLD last 10 scored 8 from 13.2 xG conceded 12 from 13.4 xG

Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWLLDWWLLD last 10 scored 14 from 15.7 xG conceded 17 from 15.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422533	1.49–1.31	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	322840	1.28–1.45	1-1 13%	51%	56%
dc-xg	432433	1.61–1.38	1-1 11%	57%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to win	40.2%	43.0%	43.1%	1.00×	2.33
Aston Villa to win	34.5%	30.4%	32.3%	0.94×	3.29
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	24.7%	1.13×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur & not both score	20.3%	21.9%	20.3%	1.08×	4.57
Tottenham Hotspur & both teams score	19.9%	17.9%	22.9%	0.78×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	17.9%	20.0%	0.90×	5.58
Aston Villa & both teams score	17.3%	17.9%	15.5%	1.15×	5.58
Aston Villa & not both score	17.2%	17.9%	16.8%	1.07×	5.58
Draw & not both score	6.2%	8.4%	4.9%	1.72×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur & over 1.5	31.2%	30.9%	36.7%	0.84×	3.24
Tottenham Hotspur & under 3.5	27.4%	26.0%	26.8%	0.97×	3.84
Aston Villa & over 1.5	26.2%	26.0%	25.4%	1.02×	3.84
Tottenham Hotspur & over 2.5	24.6%	21.7%	30.2%	0.72×	4.62
Aston Villa & under 3.5	24.1%	21.7%	21.7%	1.00×	4.62
Aston Villa & over 2.5	20.8%	21.7%	20.0%	1.08×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Tottenham Hotspur & under 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	13.0%	1.39×	5.56
Aston Villa & under 2.5	13.7%	12.9%	12.4%	1.04×	7.77
Tottenham Hotspur & over 3.5	12.8%	12.9%	16.4%	0.79×	7.77
Aston Villa & over 3.5	10.4%	12.9%	10.7%	1.21×	7.77
Tottenham Hotspur & under 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.69
Aston Villa & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	4.9%	1.62×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (1UP)	56.9%	58.1%	62.1%	0.93×	1.72
Aston Villa (1UP)	52.0%	52.6%	51.4%	1.02×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (2UP)	40.2%	47.5%	44.9%	1.06×	2.11
Aston Villa (2UP)	34.5%	31.0%	34.5%	0.90×	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	35.9%	36.0%	30.9%	1.17×	2.78
Aston Villa to win 2nd half	35.3%	36.0%	32.9%	1.10×	2.78
Tottenham Hotspur to win 2nd half	28.8%	26.3%	36.3%	0.72×	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (+2.5)	92.7%	92.1%	89.2%	1.03×	1.09
Aston Villa (+1.5)	80.8%	82.4%	76.0%	1.08×	1.21
Tottenham Hotspur (+0.5)	65.5%	68.7%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
Aston Villa (+0.5)	59.8%	57.0%	56.9%	1.00×	1.75
Tottenham Hotspur (-0.5)	40.2%	43.0%	43.1%	1.00×	2.33
Aston Villa (-0.5)	34.5%	31.3%	32.3%	0.97×	3.20
Tottenham Hotspur (-1.5)	19.2%	17.6%	24.0%	0.73×	5.68
Tottenham Hotspur (-2.5)	7.3%	7.9%	10.8%	0.74×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede	76.6%	79.0%	78.4%	1.01×	1.27
Aston Villa clean sheet	23.4%	21.0%	21.6%	0.97×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa clean sheet in 1st half	48.1%	50.7%	48.6%	1.04×	1.97
Aston Villa to concede in 1st half	51.9%	49.3%	51.4%	0.96×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 6.5 corners	79.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners	76.7%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Aston Villa under 5.5 corners	68.9%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Aston Villa over 3.5 corners	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Aston Villa under 4.5 corners	55.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Aston Villa over 4.5 corners	44.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Aston Villa under 3.5 corners	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Aston Villa over 5.5 corners	31.1%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Aston Villa under 2.5 corners	23.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Aston Villa over 6.5 corners	20.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 3.5 goals	95.4%	97.5%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Aston Villa under 2.5 goals	85.1%	87.9%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals	73.5%	72.0%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals	61.7%	63.0%	60.6%	1.04×	1.59
Aston Villa over 1.5 goals	38.3%	37.0%	39.4%	0.94×	2.70
Aston Villa under 0.5 goals	26.5%	28.0%	25.1%	1.12×	3.57
Aston Villa over 2.5 goals	14.9%	12.1%	15.0%	0.81×	8.24
Aston Villa over 3.5 goals	4.6%	2.5%	5.5%	0.45×	40.63

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 1st half	91.2%	94.1%	89.2%	1.06×	1.06
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 1st half	61.0%	64.1%	59.4%	1.08×	1.56
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 1st half	39.0%	35.9%	40.6%	0.89×	2.78
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 1st half	8.8%	5.9%	10.8%	0.54×	17.03

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (away no bet)	61.3%	62.1%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.7%	37.9%	36.5%	1.04×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa even goals	53.5%	52.8%	53.7%	0.98×	1.89
Aston Villa odd goals	46.5%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.1%	83.0%	80.1%	1.04×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.9%	17.0%	19.9%	0.85×	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.7%	58.2%	70.2%	0.83×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.3%	41.8%	29.8%	1.40×	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.4%	55.1%	61.4%	0.90×	1.81
Tottenham Hotspur to score 2+ in a row	33.8%	29.0%	39.1%	0.74×	3.44
Aston Villa to score 2+ in a row	29.4%	25.1%	29.9%	0.84×	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.7%	16.4%	26.2%	0.63×	6.10
Tottenham Hotspur to score 3+ in a row	11.2%	12.1%	16.5%	0.74×	8.24
Aston Villa to score 3+ in a row	8.8%	5.7%	10.2%	0.56×	17.58

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+3.5)	89.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+2.5)	83.8%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+1.5)	76.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Aston Villa corners (+3.5)	71.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Aston Villa corners (+2.5)	62.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Aston Villa corners (+1.5)	52.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-1.5)	47.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-2.5)	37.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-3.5)	28.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Aston Villa corners (-1.5)	23.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Aston Villa corners (-2.5)	16.2%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Aston Villa corners (-3.5)	10.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.8%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
0-8 corners	34.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	72.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	64.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	55.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	54.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	45.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	45.0%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	35.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	27.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	25.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
1-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.48
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.48
0-1	8.2%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
1-2	7.9%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
2-0	6.5%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
0-0	6.2%	7.4%	4.9%	1.53×	13.48
0-2	5.5%	7.4%	5.5%	1.34×	13.48
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.48
0-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.48
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.49
1-3	3.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.47
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.48
2-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.48
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.50×	58.49
3-0	3.2%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.47
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.47
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.47
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.48
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.34×	58.49
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.82×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.49
Any other score	2.8%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur leading at HT (DNB)	62.6%	65.9%	59.6%	1.10×	1.52
Aston Villa leading at HT (DNB)	37.4%	34.1%	40.4%	0.85×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur or Aston Villa (12)	74.7%	72.1%	75.3%	0.96×	1.39
Tottenham Hotspur or draw (1X)	65.5%	69.6%	67.7%	1.03×	1.44
Aston Villa or draw (X2)	59.8%	57.0%	56.9%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur or draw at HT	77.9%	79.9%	75.5%	1.06×	1.25
Aston Villa or draw at HT	63.0%	62.1%	63.8%	0.97×	1.61
Tottenham Hotspur or Aston Villa at HT	59.0%	56.9%	60.6%	0.94×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur or draw (1UP)	65.5%	75.8%	74.4%	1.02×	1.32
Aston Villa or draw (1UP)	59.8%	62.9%	65.2%	0.97×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw in 2nd half	71.2%	73.7%	63.7%	1.16×	1.36
Tottenham Hotspur or draw in 2nd half	64.7%	64.0%	67.2%	0.95×	1.56
Tottenham Hotspur or Aston Villa in 2nd half	64.1%	64.0%	69.1%	0.93×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.2%	61.6%	56.7%	1.08×	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.8%	38.4%	43.3%	0.89×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (DNB)	53.8%	51.0%	57.2%	0.89×	1.96
Aston Villa (DNB)	46.2%	49.0%	42.8%	1.15×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score first	49.0%	45.6%	52.0%	0.88×	2.19
Aston Villa to score first	44.8%	41.9%	43.3%	0.97×	2.39
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	4.9%	1.54×	13.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.3%	54.9%	58.2%	0.94×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.7%	45.1%	41.8%	1.08×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.3%	41.6%	46.8%	0.89×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.5%	38.5%	30.0%	1.28×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	11.9%	0.71×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.7%	83.1%	82.2%	1.01×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	16.3%	16.9%	17.8%	0.95×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.0%	74.0%	68.9%	1.07×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.0%	26.0%	31.1%	0.83×	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.6%	59.3%	55.9%	1.06×	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	23.2%	20.8%	24.6%	0.85×	4.80
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.8%	13.1%	0.83×	9.27
Both score in both halves	5.9%	6.8%	6.7%	1.01×	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.8%	81.6%	80.4%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.2%	18.4%	19.6%	0.94×	5.43

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.7%	57.2%	61.9%	0.92×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.3%	42.8%	38.1%	1.12×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.2%	47.4%	46.6%	1.02×	2.11
4-6 goals	28.0%	26.5%	32.7%	0.81×	3.78
0-1 goals	23.5%	22.8%	18.1%	1.26×	4.38
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.56

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score exactly 1	35.2%	36.0%	35.6%	1.01×	2.78
Aston Villa to score exactly 0	26.5%	27.4%	25.1%	1.09×	3.65
Aston Villa to score exactly 2	23.4%	22.4%	24.5%	0.92×	4.46
Aston Villa to score 3+	14.9%	12.8%	15.0%	0.85×	7.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 1	34.0%	32.7%	29.6%	1.10×	3.06
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 2	24.7%	23.3%	26.1%	0.89×	4.30
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 0	23.4%	23.2%	21.6%	1.08×	4.30
Tottenham Hotspur to score 3+	17.9%	18.9%	22.9%	0.83×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.0%	43.1%	39.4%	1.09×	2.32
Tottenham Hotspur leading at HT	37.0%	37.9%	36.2%	1.05×	2.64
Aston Villa leading at HT	22.1%	20.1%	24.5%	0.82×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur -1: 2	59.8%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Tottenham Hotspur -1: X	21.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Tottenham Hotspur -1: 1	19.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:1)	59.8%	55.9%	56.9%	0.98×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	21.0%	24.3%	19.2%	1.26×	4.12
Tottenham Hotspur (0:1)	19.2%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:2)	80.8%	82.8%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.9%	11.0%	13.3%	0.82×	9.12
Tottenham Hotspur (0:2)	7.3%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:3)	92.7%	92.6%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.0%	5.8%	7.5%	0.77×	17.20
Tottenham Hotspur (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:4)	97.7%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	2.0%	0.58×	83.49
Tottenham Hotspur (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.62

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (1:0)	65.5%	69.9%	67.7%	1.03×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.2%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.87
Aston Villa (1:0)	15.3%	17.0%	15.8%	1.08×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (2:0)	84.7%	84.6%	84.2%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.9%	6.5%	9.3%	0.70×	15.46
Aston Villa (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	6.6%	0.98×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.9%	50.0%	49.7%	1.01×	2.00
1st half highest scoring	30.1%	28.0%	25.8%	1.09×	3.57
Halves equal	25.0%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to concede	73.5%	73.1%	74.9%	0.98×	1.37
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet	26.5%	26.9%	25.1%	1.07×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet in 1st half	61.0%	64.1%	59.4%	1.08×	1.56
Tottenham Hotspur to concede in 1st half	39.0%	35.9%	40.6%	0.88×	2.78

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur over 2.5 corners	87.3%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Tottenham Hotspur over 3.5 corners	76.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Tottenham Hotspur over 4.5 corners	63.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Tottenham Hotspur under 6.5 corners	62.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Tottenham Hotspur under 5.5 corners	50.4%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Tottenham Hotspur over 5.5 corners	49.6%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Tottenham Hotspur under 4.5 corners	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Tottenham Hotspur over 6.5 corners	37.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Tottenham Hotspur under 3.5 corners	23.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Tottenham Hotspur under 2.5 corners	12.7%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur under 3.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	91.6%	1.01×	1.08
Tottenham Hotspur under 2.5 goals	82.1%	82.1%	77.1%	1.06×	1.22
Tottenham Hotspur over 0.5 goals	76.6%	77.7%	78.4%	0.99×	1.29
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 goals	57.4%	58.8%	51.1%	1.15×	1.70
Tottenham Hotspur over 1.5 goals	42.6%	41.2%	48.9%	0.84×	2.43
Tottenham Hotspur under 0.5 goals	23.4%	22.3%	21.6%	1.03×	4.49
Tottenham Hotspur over 2.5 goals	17.9%	17.9%	22.9%	0.78×	5.59
Tottenham Hotspur over 3.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	8.4%	0.93×	12.92

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 in 1st half	83.3%	84.3%	84.5%	1.00×	1.19
Tottenham Hotspur under 0.5 in 1st half	48.1%	50.9%	48.6%	1.05×	1.97
Tottenham Hotspur over 0.5 in 1st half	51.9%	49.1%	51.4%	0.96×	2.04
Tottenham Hotspur over 1.5 in 1st half	16.7%	15.7%	15.5%	1.01×	6.37

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (home no bet)	57.6%	56.7%	56.6%	1.00×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	42.4%	43.3%	43.4%	1.00×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur even goals	52.7%	50.6%	53.8%	0.94×	1.98
Tottenham Hotspur odd goals	47.3%	49.4%	46.2%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.4%	28.9%	27.6%	1.05×	3.46
HT 1-0	21.5%	24.1%	21.8%	1.11×	4.15
HT 0-1	14.5%	10.9%	14.8%	0.74×	9.13
HT 1-1	10.6%	10.9%	10.9%	1.00×	9.17
HT 2-0	7.9%	7.1%	8.1%	0.88×	14.04
Any other HT score	5.1%	7.1%	5.3%	1.34×	14.08
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.3%	3.8%	0.61×	43.33
HT 0-2	3.6%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.35
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.42
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.3%	1.0%	2.24×	43.54

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT	26.8%	26.8%	26.3%	1.02×	3.74
Aston Villa at HT / Aston Villa at FT	16.7%	16.8%	16.9%	0.99×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.7%	12.7%	13.6%	0.94×	7.88
Draw at HT / Aston Villa at FT	14.5%	12.7%	12.0%	1.06×	7.88
Draw at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT	11.8%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.89
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Draw at FT	6.8%	6.0%	6.6%	0.91×	16.68
Aston Villa at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.81
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Aston Villa at FT	3.3%	3.5%	3.5%	0.99×	28.83
Aston Villa at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT	1.5%	3.5%	3.0%	1.16×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score last	49.0%	46.8%	50.3%	0.93×	2.14
Aston Villa to score last	44.8%	40.2%	44.9%	0.89×	2.49
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	4.9%	1.54×	13.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	92.6%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 1 at any time	56.9%	55.1%	62.1%	0.89×	1.82
Aston Villa to lead by 1 at any time	52.0%	50.7%	51.4%	0.99×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.8%	44.0%	50.8%	0.87×	2.27
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 2 at any time	25.6%	25.4%	29.9%	0.85×	3.94
Aston Villa to lead by 2 at any time	21.4%	19.6%	21.2%	0.92×	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.4%	14.9%	21.2%	0.70×	6.71
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 3 at any time	9.3%	6.7%	13.1%	0.51×	14.97
Aston Villa to lead by 3 at any time	7.1%	6.6%	8.1%	0.82×	15.08

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur most corners	57.8%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Aston Villa most corners	32.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	9.9%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.9%	78.6%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.2%	72.4%	79.2%	0.91×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.2%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.5%	63.4%	59.8%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.2%	53.2%	55.8%	0.95×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.2%	48.7%	46.6%	1.04×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.2%	48.7%	51.9%	0.94×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.2%	43.6%	36.7%	1.19×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.6%	39.2%	41.6%	0.94×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.0%	30.2%	32.7%	0.93×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.0%	24.5%	28.8%	0.85×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.5%	14.9%	14.3%	1.04×	6.72
7+ goals	2.4%	2.5%	2.8%	0.91×	39.23

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur never behind	41.8%	48.2%	48.6%	0.99×	2.08
Aston Villa never behind	36.9%	44.7%	37.9%	1.18×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	51.0%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	53.4%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	46.6%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	52.1%	51.8%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	47.9%	48.2%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.7%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.1%	87.6%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.5%	77.3%	81.9%	0.94×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.7%	66.2%	64.6%	1.03×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.5%	52.5%	58.5%	0.90×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.5%	47.5%	41.5%	1.15×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	30.3%	33.8%	35.4%	0.95×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	23.5%	22.7%	18.1%	1.25×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	14.9%	12.4%	17.1%	0.72×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	4.9%	1.59×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	6.3%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.6%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.1%	92.5%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.4%	81.1%	79.1%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.1%	67.4%	76.4%	0.88×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.0%	62.1%	53.9%	1.15×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.0%	37.9%	46.1%	0.82×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.9%	32.6%	23.6%	1.38×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.6%	18.9%	20.9%	0.91×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.9%	7.5%	7.5%	1.00×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.4%	2.8%	2.9%	0.94×	36.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.4%	89.0%	87.4%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.6%	71.1%	72.4%	0.98×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.9%	64.1%	1.08×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.1%	35.9%	0.87×	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.4%	28.9%	27.6%	1.04×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.6%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	79.8%	75.9%	1.05×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	79.8%	84.7%	0.94×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	53.2%	45.8%	1.16×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	46.8%	54.2%	0.86×	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	20.2%	15.3%	1.32×	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.2%	24.1%	0.84×	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to score in both halves	78.0%	78.3%	76.8%	1.02×	1.28
Tottenham Hotspur not to score in both halves	73.4%	73.8%	68.7%	1.07×	1.36
Tottenham Hotspur to score in both halves	26.6%	26.2%	31.3%	0.84×	3.82
Aston Villa to score in both halves	22.0%	21.7%	23.2%	0.94×	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.3%	58.4%	58.2%	1.00×	1.71
Only Tottenham Hotspur scores	20.3%	22.3%	20.3%	1.10×	4.48
Only Aston Villa scores	17.2%	16.1%	16.8%	0.96×	6.22
Neither team scores	6.2%	7.2%	4.9%	1.48×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.0%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	17.3%	17.4%	13.3%	1.31×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	15.4%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.6%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.6%	4.9%	1.57×	13.09
6 or more goals	6.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.0%	44.9%	54.2%	0.83×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.9%	33.4%	30.6%	1.09×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	21.2%	23.0%	15.3%	1.51×	4.34

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to win both halves	92.2%	93.9%	91.2%	1.03×	1.07
Tottenham Hotspur not to win both halves	89.3%	88.0%	86.5%	1.02×	1.14
Tottenham Hotspur to win both halves	10.7%	12.0%	13.5%	0.89×	8.31
Aston Villa to win both halves	7.8%	6.1%	8.8%	0.69×	16.50

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to win either half	55.1%	59.4%	59.0%	1.01×	1.68
Aston Villa to win neither half	50.4%	54.9%	51.5%	1.07×	1.82
Aston Villa to win either half	49.6%	45.1%	48.5%	0.93×	2.22
Tottenham Hotspur to win neither half	44.9%	40.6%	41.0%	0.99×	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to win to nil	82.8%	83.0%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
Tottenham Hotspur not to win to nil	79.7%	78.1%	79.7%	0.98×	1.28
Tottenham Hotspur to win to nil	20.3%	21.9%	20.3%	1.08×	4.56
Aston Villa to win to nil	17.2%	17.0%	16.8%	1.01×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	27.8%	24.7%	1.13×	3.59
Tottenham Hotspur by 1	21.0%	24.1%	19.2%	1.26×	4.14
Aston Villa by 1	19.2%	16.9%	16.6%	1.02×	5.91
Tottenham Hotspur by 2	11.9%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.48
Aston Villa by 2	9.9%	7.3%	9.3%	0.78×	13.77
Tottenham Hotspur by 3+	7.3%	7.3%	10.8%	0.67×	13.78
Aston Villa by 3+	5.4%	7.3%	6.6%	1.10×	13.79