Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.31–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-goals | 1.13–1.53 | 1-1 13% | 50% | 54% | |
| dc-xg | 1.41–1.59 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 60% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.