Tottenham Hotspur v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 6
On target
9 – 6
Shots in box
19 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.14 – +0.11
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
51.6%
Draw
21.0%
Brentford win
27.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–1.50 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 4.14 xGBrentford 0.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 4' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 4' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 6' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 7' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 7' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 10' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 24' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 25' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 25' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Maddison |
| 27' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Son Heung-Min |
| 31' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.82 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Maddison |
| 35' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 40' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Carvalho |
| 41' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Carvalho |
| 44' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Maddison |
| 52' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 62' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 67' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sepp van den Berg |
| 84' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Son Heung-Min |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Fabio Carvalho FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kevin Schade Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mads Roerslev Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Konak Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Trevitt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2.21 | 0.00 | 2.42 |
| James Maddison MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.96 | 2.25 |
| Dejan Kulusevski MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.13 | 1.36 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.81 |
| Son Heung-Min FWL | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.04 | 1.14 | 2.16 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Brennan Johnson FWR | 74 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.10 | 0.78 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.54 |
| Yves Bissouma Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikey Moore Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Bergvall Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Archie Gray Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |