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Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 February 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
16 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.12 – -0.49
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Pascal Groß 16' — goalPape Sarr 60' — goalBrennan Johnson 95' — goal
Tottenham Hotspur 2.12 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Danny Welbeck 0' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 16' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Richarlison 19' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 21' — Saved Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Timo Werner 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)James Maddison 25' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Danny Welbeck 28' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kaoru Mitoma 28' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 35' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Dejan Kulusevski 37' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 40' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Rodrigo Bentancur 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)James Maddison 47' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Timo Werner 52' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Pape Sarr 54' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Pape Sarr 57' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pape Sarr 60' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Brennan Johnson 65' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Anssumane Fati 75' — Missed Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Facundo Buonanotte 77' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 93' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Brennan Johnson 95' — Goal (0.57 xG, Open Play)
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
16' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.76 Right Foot Goal
19' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
21' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.27 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot James Maddison
21' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
25' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Richarlison
28' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
28' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Adam Lallana
35' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Timo Werner
37' Tottenham Hotspur Dejan Kulusevski 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Richarlison
40' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot James Maddison
45' Tottenham Hotspur Rodrigo Bentancur 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dejan Kulusevski
47' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
52' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Micky van de Ven
54' Tottenham Hotspur Pape Sarr 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
57' Tottenham Hotspur Pape Sarr 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
60' Tottenham Hotspur Pape Sarr 0.31 Open Play Left Foot Goal
65' Tottenham Hotspur Brennan Johnson 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Son Heung-Min
75' Brighton and Hove Albion Anssumane Fati 0.41 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kaoru Mitoma
77' Brighton and Hove Albion Facundo Buonanotte 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Anssumane Fati
93' Tottenham Hotspur Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot James Maddison
95' Tottenham Hotspur Brennan Johnson 0.57 Open Play Right Foot Goal Son Heung-Min

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pascal Groß MC 90 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.52
Kaoru Mitoma FWL 90 0 0 1 1 0.10 0.41 0.62
Jan Paul van Hecke DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Estupiñán DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Jason Steele GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lewis Dunk DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Billy Gilmour MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tariq Lamptey DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Danny Welbeck FW 89 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.21
Facundo Buonanotte FWR 89 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Adam Lallana MC 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10
Anssumane Fati Sub 27 0 0 1 1 0.41 0.11 0.52
Joël Veltman Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Evan Ferguson Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Baleba Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benicio Baker-Boaitey Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Richarlison FW 90 0 0 4 2 0.52 0.42 1.59
James Maddison AMC 90 0 0 2 3 0.11 0.39 1.13
Pedro Porro DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Micky van de Ven DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.99
Guglielmo Vicario GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Cristian Romero DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.41
Pape Sarr DMC 86 1 0 3 0 0.39 0.00 0.57
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Dejan Kulusevski AMR 69 0 0 1 1 0.36 0.02 0.51
Timo Werner AML 68 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.09 0.17
Rodrigo Bentancur DMC 68 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Brennan Johnson Sub 22 1 0 2 0 0.63 0.00 0.63
Son Heung-Min Sub 22 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.63 0.65
Yves Bissouma Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Ben Davies Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.59
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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