Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 23
On target
1 – 9
Shots in box
7 – 16
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 1.06
Goals − xG
-0.81 – -1.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
43.7%
Draw
25.3%
Crystal Palace win
31.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.84–1.70 | 1-1 9% | 69% | 69% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 0.81 xGCrystal Palace 3.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 12' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 13' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 24' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.43 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 25' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Will Hughes |
| 28' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 30' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Maxence Lacroix |
| 31' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.17 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 31' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 32' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jefferson Lerma |
| 33' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 42' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Will Hughes |
| 44' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Daniel Muñoz |
| 47' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ismaila Sarr |
| 47' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 51' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Will Hughes |
| 54' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 66' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 67' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ben Chilwell |
| 72' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.20 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 92' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Guehi |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.07 | 0.17 | 1.72 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.80 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.62 | 0.99 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Will Hughes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.26 | 1.57 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1.06 |
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.70 | 1.15 | 2.10 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.82 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.74 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.14 | 1.05 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Ben Chilwell Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Romain Esse Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pape Sarr MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Wilson Odobert FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Archie Gray MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Ben Davies DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Mathys Tel FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikey Moore Sub | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yves Bissouma Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Son Heung-Min Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dejan Kulusevski FW | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |